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If there are an infinite number of parallel universes to our own, I'm sure there's at least one where Northwest Biotherapeutics reports positive data from their phase III trial of DCVax, garners FDA approval, and goes on to become a biopharmaceutical powerhouse to rival Gilead and Celgene. That would be a very interesting universe to visit. In this universe seasons will change, the snow will fall and melt, flowers will bloom, and the phase III trial of DCVax-L in glioblastoma multiforme will fail.The stock opened green today on word from Northwest Bio that the predetermined number of 66 events to conduct the first interim futility analysis has been reached, and the data is currently in the hands of the IDMC. As the realization that data that could possibly drop the share price more than 90% is now in the hands of an independent, ethical entity sunk into shareholders over the course of the day, the stock has lost ground substantially. There's a lot of missing data here that shareholders normally have. For example, no one outside of management knows how many patients have been enrolled in the trial, as they prefer to PR the addition of clinical sites. We know that 33 were enrolled when management froze the trial for lack of funds in 2008. Presumably data from those patients was carried over when enrollment resumed in 2011. It also seems odd to me why the company would increase enrollment from 240 to 312 patients when the trial is powered to generate topline data after 110 events. For a slowly-enrolling trial in a rapidly progressive disease like glioblastoma, it seems likely that the 110 events will have occurred before 240 patients are enrolled. Of course, since Northwest doesn't provide enrollment numbers we'll never know for sure.I'm red thumbing here because I can't take the chance of missing an early termination for futility which will reduce Northwest to dust. There's a good chance the IDMC will allow the trial to progress to the second interim analysis which will bump the stock back over 5, or even higher with SeekingAlpha juicing. In that case, I'll have to wait until topline data to take my rewards.
very pessimistic as to their making it or not
Might be early here, but I'd rather get in my underperform now than miss the inevitable crash and burn.
Work in biotech for 36 yrs and know until phase 3 shows efficacy chances of success are low. However, positive results in phase 2 trials especially with brain cancer is worth the role of the dice. Don't bet the bank, 100 or 200 shares is not too expensive for a potentially significant gain.
Brain, prostate, ovarian cancer vaccines are in late trials.
losing money every quarter, that $1.98M in cash is not going to last much longer...
Just bought some with real money,Great cancer vaccine!
Dr. Leo Spaceman: Now this is surgery, so don't eat anything before you come in. Because I'll have a big breakfast waiting for you.
Reverse split wont keep this stock from crashing.
Technology two decades in the making reaching maturity in the next 24months
Another PR Pump and Dump.
The advantages over DNDN are dramatic. It's just a matter of time.
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