OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:OGXI)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.79) Submitted: 12/4/2015 4:51:14 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.26 OGXI Score: -39.93

I'm back in OncoGenex to make a thousand bucks. That's my modest goal after grabbing 5000 shares of this falling knife at 1.27 today. I was able to pick this back up following my prior profitable sale at 2.65 thanks to the not-very-surprising failure of the AFFINITY trial to show either an OS benefit for the high risk subgroup or sufficient efficacy to stop the trial for the ITT population at the interim analysis. We all know what this will mean: the final AFFINITY analysis will be a fail in H2 2016. The similar ENSPIRIT phase III trial of custirsen in second line CRPC will also be a fail at around the same time. Combined with the earlier failure of the SYNERGY trial of custirsen in first line CRPC, the ultimate conclusion will be that custirsen is not a drug. That leaves apatorsen and 66M in cash as of the end of September, subject to about 2M in monthly burn and whatever ATM happens to be in effect. Apatorsen continues in various tree-themed trials with some data from Spruce expected in Q1 2016.

Despite this dismal picture, OncoGenex's market cap of 36M is rather dramatically lower than the last cash of 66M. Experienced biotech junkies know this is no guarantee of a rebound, but it does improve the risk/reward ratio. Unlike a company with no cash, OncoGenex's stock has to stop dropping at some point. I'm already down $300 on the trade at the close, but I'll just add another 5000 shares if the stock goes below 1.05. Of course, once that happens I'll have to increase my profit goal to $2000.

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Member Avatar superstar (99.76) Submitted: 8/31/2015 11:19:05 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.03 OGXI Score: -73.38

I've always liked OncoGenex, some bright management executing some cutting edge science for a long time. The company has had their share of setbacks, but with a little luck they will hit the mother load with Affinity. The stock is undervalued here going into the Affinity phase 3 trial, not to mention the Enspirit phase 3 trial for metastatic NSCLC. Plenty of cash on hand going through year end. Not sure how you go wrong at this level, stock should soar going into the trials, and positive data would take it to a whole other level from there. On a personal note, I love to see small tech biotech making a positive impact on cancer treatment, and hope to see some positive trial results.

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Member Avatar oscillation (25.19) Submitted: 2/27/2015 12:25:50 AM : Outperform Start Price: $2.30 OGXI Score: -61.18

nev

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Member Avatar wassercom (54.65) Submitted: 10/13/2014 9:40:08 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.20 OGXI Score: -70.60

Placebo arm of the last Phase III trial was poorly designed.

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Member Avatar a410traveler (44.36) Submitted: 9/14/2014 4:47:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.15 OGXI Score: -73.66

Strong pipeline of cancer fighting drugs.

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Member Avatar Investinguppy (< 20) Submitted: 6/17/2014 11:01:54 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.63 OGXI Score: -78.29

Very risky play, it seems their drugs, which were so promising a few years ago, are being eclipsed by new medications.

Still hold some promise for second and third line cancer treatment to overcome resistance.

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Member Avatar RBuskey106 (49.87) Submitted: 3/30/2012 12:06:02 PM : Outperform Start Price: $13.29 OGXI Score: -127.03

Cancer Bio---had a secondary offerring which dropped it down to these levels. Missed it the other day at a lower price, but feel confident in the long term prospects for the company.

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Member Avatar tunget (< 20) Submitted: 2/28/2011 2:18:13 PM : Outperform Start Price: $15.71 OGXI Score: -135.79

OncoGenex today sports a $110 million enterprise value with less than 10 million shares outstanding. That's not very expensive for a company with a late-stage cancer drug, even one that's already partnered.

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Member Avatar Mediajazzz (23.97) Submitted: 12/8/2010 5:46:17 PM : Outperform Start Price: $16.01 OGXI Score: -145.64

Higher volume makes this stock price increase

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Member Avatar dboyer14 (< 20) Submitted: 7/18/2010 12:27:04 PM : Outperform Start Price: $12.41 OGXI Score: -168.15

This stock and company is undervalued based on available cash of $47 Million, will carry OGXI into 1012. Any good news on any of the three trials will bring the stock out of the down turn. Only 7.2 million shares outstanding fully diluted. High priced options expiring this quarter.

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Member Avatar TheBestNeverRest (27.35) Submitted: 2/11/2010 8:10:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $17.41 OGXI Score: -169.66

Easily a $20.00 plus stock given the deal with TEVA.

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Member Avatar MJKpayday (99.78) Submitted: 10/11/2009 11:58:24 AM : Underperform Start Price: $24.24 OGXI Score: +199.02

Admittedly I've done little research, but UltraLong wrote a convincing case so I'm riding the coat tails.

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Member Avatar number90 (< 20) Submitted: 7/22/2009 3:58:32 PM : Outperform Start Price: $21.44 OGXI Score: -200.01

Here are 10 reasons

1) Past experience with Sonus drugs are not relevant to current story -- ISIS licensed technology

2) Revenue doesn't matter when it comes to evaluating young biotechs in this stage of development (didn't think I'd have to mention that, but read other's comments here)

3) Significant overall survival advantage compared to docetaxel in controlled Ph2; this is as close as a gimme as you get for the ph3 hitting its endpoints. It really says a lot that the investigators crossed patients from the control arm to receive OGX-011, a drug with so little clinical experience (ie. its obvious this thing works!)

4) Extremely well executed ph2 trial; the fact that they teased out OS analysis should put faith back in company. They did very nice risk stratification in their analysis, that further reduces my risk in this investment :)

5) Not 'unproven', first in class drug. This is what oncologists want -- new weapons!

6) Despite recent run-up market cap is extremely low. Please look at competitors, CGRB is a good start (prostate cancer drug in similar stage of development, however no controlled trial and no known survival benefit).

7) SEC filing related to CGRB purchase said there were many suitors and multiple bids for company with one offer of 1B.

8) Rationale for very broad use in cancer lays the foundation for megablockbuster potential. This improves the efficacy of chemo! Lung and breast cancer are next.

9) Makes you wonder what other ISIS licensed technology is being developed in oncology (oh yeah OGXI owns that too)

10) Oncology due to lack of generic encroachment is a major therapeutic focus of big Pharma that must grow revenue with drugs outside of their own pipeline. Look at Pfizer story which wants Onc rev of greater than 25B in less than 10 years. They can not do it with their own/Wyeth pipeline and will need to purchase or license from other companies.

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Member Avatar arboretum (29.17) Submitted: 6/29/2009 4:26:18 PM : Underperform Start Price: $22.50 OGXI Score: +198.07

ultralong

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Member Avatar TMFBiologyFool (97.59) Submitted: 6/1/2009 1:30:52 PM : Outperform Start Price: $18.55 OGXI Score: -194.31

$100 million market cap is too low for a promising phase 2 drug.

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