+ Watch OGXPY
on My Watchlist
So many Fools have been burned by this stock betting on the upside. After conducting some rather extensive research, I feel that I may have found a good candidate to hedge against future point loss while I wait for some of my bad calls to even out. (More will come.) The stock has a very negative trend developing and MACD is down. As far as real money goes- I don't dabble in Pink Sheets.http://www.nismagazine.com/hot-stock-buzzers-ogx-petroleo-e-adr-pinkogxpy-james-river-coal-company-nasdaqjrcc-entravision-communication-nyseevc/122573/According to the article above, "OGX is the largest private sector company in the oil industry in Brazil, with 33 exploratory blocks located in some of the most promising sedimentary basins in Brazil (28 blocks) and Colombia (5 blocks). More than 90% of its portfolio is located in shallow water or on land, ideal conditions for the development of projects with rapid implementation and lower cost, both for exploration and for production." Doesn't that sound great?The Negative:Well, let's look at the financial statements of the corporation. Oh, wait a minute, the company only has annual reports that don't include sales/profits. *Face Palm* Based on what we do have, though, EBITDA is on the decline with SG&A expense on the rise. General costs are also on the rise. The trend indicators are also very poor here.The Good News:According to the article below, "Eike Batista's industrial empire, has declared three offshore oil fields commercially viable for development." On top of that the balance sheet shows an increase from 2010-2011 of Cash Only assets that go from $7 million to $52 million. Something very similar happened with CZR in recent time frames which caused the stock to spike 250% in roughly 3 months. Property over the last year has also spiked from $28 million to $277 million. This could very well end up being another huge burden on my account.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324532004578360131697943890.html?mod=WSJ_qtnews_wsjlatestIf that is the case and enormous growth happens, at least I will have learned something I suppose. :P
The market is currently valuing OGX's oil in the ground at about $5.30 per barrel using the original estimates of total recoverable reserves from last year. However recent prices for similar territory paid by Chinese oil companies and others is about $15 per barrel. So stock is work at least 3x what it is at now ($12+). In addition the company is being very sucessful in its exploration activities and will likely have more oil than last year's estimates. Finally this analysis completely ignores vast gas reseves they have found on shore and exploration potential of other areas they operate outside Brazil. This is a $30-50 stock over the next few years.
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