Oncothyreon, Inc. (NASDAQ:ONTY)

zzlangerhans (99.78) Submitted: 12/23/2012 11:51:10 PM : Start Price: $1.98 ONTY Score: -17.10

I tried to play against my own strategy by greenthumbing Oncothyreon a couple of months ago, and got swatted down painfully. Somehow I got confused about the timing of START topline data thinking that we would be seeing phase II data from PX-866 first. In fact, that wasn't the case, and I ended up being on the wrong side of the Stimuvax failure that I had been anticipating for years. To add insult to injury, I was coming off a night shift and couldn't get myself awake enough to make a massive buy at 1.7 in the pre-market, which in retrospect was a gift. The stock closed at 2.2 on the day of the collapse, although it gave up some of that bounce later in the week.

At a share price of 2, Oncothyreon has a market cap of 114M that is backed by about 82M in cash as of the end of 2012. While Stimuvax is probably a dead weight on the enterprise value, Oncothyreon has a wild card called PX-866, a PI-3K inhibitor currently in phase II trials for multiple indications. Primary endpoint data from several of these trials is expected in the first two quarters of 2013.

I've been meaning to read up on PI-3K inhibitors for a while, but I have to admit I haven't gotten around to it. What I know best is that Infinity's PI-3K inhibitor IPI-145 is responsible for a quintupling of that stock's price over the last year despite only being in phase I trials. Feuerstein points out that IPI-145 and similar drugs in development by other companies are directed against hematologic cancers, but I'm not sure if there is any basis for pessimism about their efficacy in solid tumors.

Right now it seems that an enterprise value of 30M is low for the potential of PX-866. The company is likely suffering from a substantial loss of investor confidence due to the severe evisceration that occurred after the early notification of the START failure. While the PX-866 trials could indeed all fail, it will probably only take reasonable success in one of the phase II trials in progress to resurrect Oncothyreon as a viable oncology drug developer. I've seen this happen now in too many stocks like Pharmacyclics, Infinity, and Ariad to ignore.

I'll keep watching Oncothyreon for now because there's nothing to prevent the share price from drifting back down towards cash, or perhaps even lower, in the short term especially if there's a lot of volatility at the macro level. Hopefully I'll be able to get myself up to speed on PI-3K inhibitors by New Year, but if I like the price before that happens I won't be shy about starting a real-life position.

LouisAIrl (< 20) Submitted: 9/5/2012 11:41:45 AM : Start Price: $5.25 ONTY Score: -80.32

Research will pay off

stainsolution (< 20) Submitted: 4/4/2012 8:53:38 PM : Start Price: $4.20 ONTY Score: -72.39

Cancer Bio. Hammered recently. Willing to buy here/ hold for the Ph III run up.

RBuskey106 (< 20) Submitted: 3/14/2012 10:46:05 PM : Start Price: $4.84 ONTY Score: -78.03

Waiting for Ph 3 stimuvax results...thinking stock may have bottomed.

colddrink73 (98.52) Submitted: 3/7/2012 11:28:22 AM : Start Price: $4.93 ONTY Score: -82.72

gain some lost ground

TMFCop (84.11) Submitted: 3/7/2012 7:43:02 AM : Start Price: $5.02 ONTY Score: -83.96

It will recover a lot of yesterday's lost ground particularly as it gets closer to the clinical trial results release date. I can't say if Stimuvax is viable, but I believe the stock will recover much of its losses as that date approaches.

ccatania13 (< 20) Submitted: 11/21/2011 12:17:13 AM : Start Price: $7.08 ONTY Score: -110.78

Another stock getting ready to break out. This stock is undervalued right now, and it is prime for the picking. Get ready for shooting star.

siliconvalleyboy (< 20) Submitted: 5/23/2011 1:46:14 AM : Start Price: $5.56 ONTY Score: -90.70

Very compelling early data from phase II. Existing trial is continuing and data is expected late Q2. Very strong pipeline ahead of them. 1 small molecule with very good chemistry AND a more powerful version of the existing drug, this new drug is not partnered and its value will go up tremendously with the approval, if and when it happens.

alcear (20.07) Submitted: 4/26/2011 10:06:05 AM : Start Price: $3.50 ONTY Score: -76.14

Oncothyreon ONTY Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Outperform $10 (as of 4/26/11)

RSorak (< 20) Submitted: 4/7/2011 10:12:01 AM : Start Price: $5.53 ONTY Score: -109.52

See slide 15 of yesterdays Needham conf. Absolutely amazing results.....Zero cancer growth.

johnandmarie123 (21.12) Submitted: 1/26/2011 1:12:49 PM : Start Price: $3.12 ONTY Score: -64.87

has potential blockbluster cancer drugs in pipeline

Stonesolidpicks (< 20) Submitted: 12/4/2009 5:53:37 PM : Start Price: $4.84 ONTY Score: -109.40

Cancer drug in Phase 3

mbs9 (< 20) Submitted: 8/27/2009 10:34:35 PM : Start Price: $5.57 ONTY Score: -125.20

it has some "hidden" gems ready to be announced