Oncothyreon, Inc. (NASDAQ:ONTY)

CAPS Rating: 4 out of 5

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Member Avatar clangmead (21.44) Submitted: 3/23/2015 8:15:31 AM : Outperform Start Price: $1.71 ONTY Score: -3.37

mpor1

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Member Avatar helicopterfool (96.80) Submitted: 3/12/2015 10:30:26 AM : Outperform Start Price: $1.76 ONTY Score: -8.05

per Porte

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.81) Submitted: 3/11/2015 12:07:25 AM : Outperform Start Price: $1.58 ONTY Score: +1.98

This is a good time of year to start cataloguing cheap oncology stocks for potential ASCO run-ups. Of course, solid winners like Agios and the CAR-T crew are good bets for a bump, but the real money will likely come where it's least expected. I've already marked Celsion as one of those potential unlikely winners, and after slogging through the transcript of the quarterly CC I'm going to add Oncothyreon to my little list.

Like Celsion, Oncothyreon belongs in the doghouse because of a history of extending false hopes with a dubious phase III trial and then dashing them to the ground. I'd never suggest parking a chunk of cash in one of these stocks and not looking at it for ten years. This trade is purely for ASCO run-up purposes. Oncothyreon has reinvented themselves with the exclusive licensing of Array's HER2 inhibitor ONT-380, for which they've now paid Array 30M upfront and will owe substantial milestones and royalties. It's very unusual for a smaller company to license a drug from a larger company on those kind of terms. Smaller companies generally try to acquire new pipeline compounds much more cheaply and then hype them up in order to facilitate dilution. Oncothyreon's willingness to pony up for ONT-380 at the expense of significant dilution at a low stock price indicates to me that management at least thinks the drug is the real thing.

Oncothyreon reported some preliminary data from single arm phase I trials of ONT-380 in combination with commercialized HER2 antibody drugs for heavily pretreated metastatic breast cancer in December. The data was limited but encouraging in terms of both efficacy and tolerability, and Oncothyreon has stated they will be presenting updated data from the trials at ASCO.

In addition to the ASCO catalyst, Oncothyreon has also acquired a nanoparticle platform called protocell through the purchase of Alpine Biosciences. Oncothyreon plans to develop protocell to deliver cytotoxic payloads to cancer cells, nucleic acids encoding deficient proteins in congential diseases, and for in vivo transfection of T cells with CAR-T. While all of this may be pie-in-the-sky, these are all very buzzworthy topics that could bring addditional attention to the stock. Oncothyreon has acquired an additional platform of Chk1 inhibition through a collaboration, and plans to submit an IND for a Chk1 inhibitor for oncologic indications before the end of 2015.

Historically, Oncothyreon has been a poor choice for a long term investment but this particular moment may be an opportune time to open a position. The share price seems to have recently plateaued with a floor of 1.5 and the painful dilution is likely out of the way for the time being. It will be important to remember going forward that there are now two series of preferred stock adding invisible shares and market cap to the numbers visible on financial portals.

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Member Avatar Amoeba17 (73.64) Submitted: 12/17/2014 2:17:47 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.79 ONTY Score: -11.94

With a few of their products performing decently in clinical trials, I think this company is going to get scooped up by a larger company. I'm betting on that happening in the next year or two.

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Member Avatar Tophinater (38.26) Submitted: 11/4/2014 2:51:34 PM : Underperform Start Price: $1.77 ONTY Score: +11.08

yep.

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Member Avatar whoodatstockhot (89.70) Submitted: 9/25/2013 12:00:39 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.28 ONTY Score: -50.43

Strong probability tecemotide succeeds in stage 3 trial-- which would push shares above the $4 dollar mark. Also, nice chance of Merck buyout before then, which would provide significant upside. Potential homerun in the making here.

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Member Avatar fatmoneyrz (99.24) Submitted: 9/25/2013 9:52:01 AM : Outperform Start Price: $2.24 ONTY Score: -49.69

Big upside with START2. $3+ valuation in near-term.

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Member Avatar stainsolution (71.59) Submitted: 4/4/2012 8:53:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.20 ONTY Score: -109.53

Cancer Bio. Hammered recently. Willing to buy here/ hold for the Ph III run up.

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Member Avatar RBuskey106 (55.68) Submitted: 3/14/2012 10:46:05 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.84 ONTY Score: -113.85

Waiting for Ph 3 stimuvax results...thinking stock may have bottomed.

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Member Avatar ccatania13 (< 20) Submitted: 11/21/2011 12:17:13 AM : Outperform Start Price: $7.08 ONTY Score: -148.86

Another stock getting ready to break out. This stock is undervalued right now, and it is prime for the picking. Get ready for shooting star.

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Member Avatar siliconvalleyboy (< 20) Submitted: 5/23/2011 1:46:14 AM : Outperform Start Price: $5.56 ONTY Score: -127.27

Very compelling early data from phase II. Existing trial is continuing and data is expected late Q2. Very strong pipeline ahead of them. 1 small molecule with very good chemistry AND a more powerful version of the existing drug, this new drug is not partnered and its value will go up tremendously with the approval, if and when it happens.

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Member Avatar RSorak (< 20) Submitted: 4/7/2011 10:12:01 AM : Outperform Start Price: $5.53 ONTY Score: -150.63

See slide 15 of yesterdays Needham conf. Absolutely amazing results.....Zero cancer growth.

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Member Avatar Stonesolidpicks (21.31) Submitted: 12/4/2009 5:53:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.84 ONTY Score: -152.65

Cancer drug in Phase 3

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Member Avatar mbs9 (< 20) Submitted: 8/27/2009 10:34:35 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.57 ONTY Score: -169.91

it has some "hidden" gems ready to be announced

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Member Avatar TMFBiologyFool (97.51) Submitted: 8/3/2009 2:37:24 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.65 ONTY Score: -179.19

Promising drugs don't deserve $100 million market caps.

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