Orbital Sciences Corp. (ORB)

This met a high level screen to indicate a buy and strong outperform against its peers (other tickers in its industry). My 1st version of this spreadsheet devles deep into the company's balnace sheet and recent income statements, combined with other relevant price data for the company including insider/institutional holdings, short interest, debt levels, etc.
Testing capabilities of this 1st version of my automated, valuation spreadhseet matched with my personal criteria and see how it holds up.

Showed up on a screen for solid 5 year growth with low debt, cash on hand and still at attractive P/E ratios.

ow relative PE, good chart, star ratings & 2010 earnings. Bottom fishing week of 10/26.

The price is great and there is plenty of room for growth even as the DOD et al makes cuts there is always another technology on the way to make a difference on the bottom line.

I dunno. It just seems like this is too good of a stock to be banished to the woodshed this badly.

buy on dip

This stock is near it's 52-week low, and in Orbital is one of only a few providers of a crucial service. I believe in this one.

Near 52 week low, high ratio of outperform picks. Good buy even at $20 according to high scores. Aerospace & Defense should see decent growth in the future. Smaller is better, just ask the design guys behind the Space X program.

This could very well be the best value on offer in defense and aerospace. Orbital has $82 million in trailing free cash flow, has sustained this level of cash generation for about three years running (so it's no fluke), is expected to grow at 15% per year going forward, and sits on a sizeable pile of cash. I give it a rough valuation of $1.2 billion, but the company is priced at half that (less with the cash.)
Foolish takeaway: Up, up, and away!

space the final frontier...

red rocket

24

Rockets are sexy.

contracts with big entities will surely boost interest in a company that is already in its second stock repurchase plan. It looks like this company is broadening its horizons by becoming involved with more than small rockets and systems.

I have committed my first act of Fooliganism. Why? Because I have been deemed a Fooligan, and a recidivist at that probably!.

I have chosen Orbital Sciences Corporation. Why? Orbital's business strategy is simple: to establish and maintain market leading positions in smaller space and launch systems niches not served by larger aerospace companies. Orbital provides value to ti's customers by developing and building innovative technology and highly reliable systems at affordable prices on rapid schedules. This gives Orbital competitive advantages into increasing shareholder value by combining consistent operational execution with disciplined resource allocation and strong corporate governance. This has allowed Orbital's stock to appreciate over 400% during the last five years.

In 2007, Orbital generated record-setting financial results with revenues, operating income, earnings per share and free cash flow all reaching their highest level in the company's 25 year history. The year-end total contract back log was above $3.9 billion for 2007. Orbital began 2008 with 90% of projected revenues in backlog at the beginning of the year. A strong head start! Orbital completed and delivered over 60 rockets, satellites and other space related products while maintaining a 100% success rate in major launch vehicle and spacecraft missions. Orbital also had 100% mission success in 2006,2005,2004,2003 and 2002. With these accomplishments Orbital had a 32% increase in share price, providing shareholders with double digit gains in 2007.

2007 also saw new contracts awarded and existing options exercised for a total of $1.975 billion in new order activity. New business activity in 2007 consisted of $1.25 billion in firm orders, $$585 million in options, and $265 million in option exercised under previously awarded contracts.

In 2007 revenues increased 35% to $1.08 billion. A 27% increase in operating income and a significant reduction in interest expense contributed to an increase in net income by 43% to $56.7 million. The four segments that generated revenue are:

Satellites and Space Systems - 43%
Advanced Space Programs - 16%
Launch Vehicles - 36%
Transportation Management Systems - 5%

Free cash flow in 2007 of $81.9 million set a new company record and continued a five year trend of robust annual cash flow. Since 2004, Orbital has spent $145 million of its accumulated cash flow generated over the past five years to buy back 9.25 million shares of company stock At the end of 2007, Orbital's cash balance exceeded $235 million.

Orbital's operations are expected to increase in 2008 with 40 major product delivery and launch events scheduled. These include 25 satellite deployments, rocket launches, and other major space missions together with 15 of more additional system deliveries for future missions.

Orbital's four business segments are comprised of the following:

Satellites and Space Systems

Communications Satellites - small geosynchronous-Earth orbit satellites that provide broadcast , cable and direct-to-home television, business data networks and other space-based communications services.

Science and Technology Satellites - small and medium satellites are used to conduct scientific research, deep space exploration and collect data and imagery about the Earth.

Space Technical Services - space related engineering, analytical and manufacturing services for scientific and military programs.

Advanced Space Programs

Human Space Systems - human related space systems to be used in Earth orbit, lunar exploration and other advanced space missions.

National Security Space Systems - small satellites and subsystems used for national security space missions and related technology demonstration programs.

Advanced Launch Systems - new medium class launch vehicles and advanced booster systems.

Launch Vehicles

Space Launch Vehicles - small and medium class rockets that deliver satellites into low Earth orbit for commercial, civil government and military customers.

Interceptor Launch Vehicles - missile defense rockets that boost intercept vehicles to destroy ballistic missiles launched against the United States, its troops and overseas allies.

Target Launch Vehicles - suborbital rockets and systems used to develop and test missile defense systems and to serve as platforms for military research.

Transportation Management Systems - software based systems that combine navigation and wireless communications to enable municipal transit and other fleet operators to better manage and track vehicles.

Financials

Trailing P/E (ttm): 24.38
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-09): 22.12
Profit Margin (ttm): 5.12%
Operating Margin (ttm): 7.88%
Return on assets (ttm): 7.25%
Return on equity (ttm): 13.38%
Qtrly Revenue Growth(yoy): 29.70%

EBITDA (ttm): $107.91 million
Total Cash (mrq): $244.25 million
Total Debt (mrq): $143.75 million
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): $117.39 million
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): $61.65 millon

Revenue 2007 - $1,084 billion
Revenue 2006 - $802,856 million

Profit 2007 - $187,203 million
Profit 2006 - $158,719 million

Advanced space programs revenue grew $46.3 million, or 176 percent, because of a substantial increase in contract activity on the Orion human spacecraft program for NASA. Launch vehicles revenue increased $17.1 million, or 19 percent, mainly from increased contract activity on missile defense, space launch and target launch vehicle programs.

During the first quarter, Orbital received approximately $245 million in new firm contract bookings, $425 million in new option contract bookings and approximately $165 million of option exercises under existing contracts.

Co was awarded a U.S. Defense Department contract worth up to $100 million for suborbital launch vehicle research and engineering. The basic term of the contract is five years, with an option for an additional five years. For the full ten-year period, the total value of the contract would be up to $100 million.

Further, the Co announced a $50 miilion stock buyback program for share holder value added probably using cash from sale of Transportation Management Systems to ACS for $42 million.

Co announced that it has signed a contract with Thales Alenia Space of France to supply its STAR satellite platform and carry out final spacecraft, payload and system integration and testing for the Koreasat 6 commercial communications satellite to be built for KT Corporation of the Republic of Korea.

The Koreasat 6 spacecraft is the second to be purchased in 2008 that uses Orbital’s STAR platform. Earlier this year, the company announced a follow-on order from SES Americom for its fourth STAR satellite purchased in the last two years. With the Koreasat 6 contract award, Orbital currently has 10 commercial communications satellites in various stages of design and production for launches between 2008 and 2010.

This story gets better and better and with EPS growth forecast at 17.5-percent per year for the next five years and management team that has proven they can meet earnings expectations the sky is the limit. OK got a little carried away, but it is good story.

This little company could get big if Space Tourism, ahem, takes off. In the meantime it's doing pretty well.

This stock along with the rest of the defense sector is heading higher. Say hello to investors and money managers looking to survive a recession this summer by jumping into defense. Learn to follow the crowd (mutual funds and such)--it consistantly weathers better than navigating against the grain.

This will overperform