Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:OREX)

Shorting the recent pop, which seems to have petered out.

So far, 2012 has been the year of baby biotech. Right now, anyone who made a New Year's resolution to invest in the sector is thinking they're a genius. But those of us who have been around long enough to see the tide roll in and out a few times are making our preparations for the lean times that will surely follow. I've been selling my more speculative positions into strength, and in the case of Orexigen it seems I left a few thousand dollars on the table.

Just a few short months ago I decried the irrationality of Orexigen traders as the share price meandered completely unfettered to the fundamental catalysts that determined the future of the company. In September the share price was as low as 1.28, giving the company a market cap well below their cash reserves. Since then, the only positive development has been a communication from the FDA that they would accept an interim analysis of the proposed cardiovascular outcomes study as sufficient grounds for approval of Contrave. The share price spiked as high as 2.6, then declined as low as 1.51 again before embarking on the most recent upward trajectory.

The market cap is now 132M and the cash position will almost certainly be below 60M the next time earnings are reported. But the outcomes study hasn't even started yet and the company estimates that it will be at least two years before the interim analysis can be performed. And of course the whole situation still suggests that the FDA sent Orexigen off on a virtually impossible task in order to avoid ever being asked to approve Contrave again. I gobbled this stock over the summer when the price was 1.5, but now I wouldn't buy a share over 1.3.

Sell NOW based on their current stock pricing issues and recent move up

A two year wait for an gaurnteed 10 bagger, damn smartphone

Technical Monthly

Its ready to make me some money!!!

This wonderful company has just repriced a good portion of their outstanding employee stock options to current price levels.

The CEO just repriced ALL of his 2,260,800 options that ranged in price from $2.79-$6.74 to the low, low price of $1.66. Boo-ya!!!

But wait, there's more!!!

A VP repriced 1,093,396 options that ranged from $1.70-$15.45 to everything priced at $1.66. Double Boo-ya!!!

There are many, many other VPs and Partners that also repriced their stock options to today's share prices. Sounds like a can't lose proposition if you're a company exec - you can just move the goal posts as you please.

The company drops to $0.50? Who cares, we'll just reprice all of our options at $0.50. Seems like a get rich and get the hell out of dodge scheme to me.

I guess I shouldn't be too hard on these guys, I mean they did bring the company's share price from $9.50 to $1.50 in only 6 months...oh wait.

Friday's announcement

sac

The drug still has a chance... after big drop last week, seems like the risk/reward ratio is very favorable, especially for the CAPS portfolio. Let's see if I can't pick up a quick couple points on the rebound and lock in a winner...

oversold

I believe this "contrave" will be extremely critical coming Jan 31 when FDA approves or disapprove. The Board of Review already voted 13-7 most of the time the FDA approves on the recommendations. The other two Arena and VVUS pose no threat here but VVUS already gone over seas to seek aprroval but if Contrave Approves most likely they will try to go ove to Europe to Broaden sales and groth to the company. All in all its in the Bag!

Just got recomendation for approval from FDA advisory committee. Expected to get FDA approval in Jan.

Strong possibility of Contrave being approved by the FDA (31-Jan-2011 meeting) after early Dec-2010 recommendation from FDA advisory panel. Contrave is made up of two FDA-approved drugs with long histories and data to back up safety claims.

Two drugs that people are already taking that may make you loose weight + an overweight population = profit

$1 billion dollar well with no buckets in it...until VVUS and OREX.

Just got positive vote reccomendation from FDA panel! Take that naysayers

If we could use Meridia as a reference, I guess Contrave will be voted favorably.

The panel voted 8:8 for Meridia on 9/15/10. Contrave helps shed more weight, and increases less BP or heart rate, which means Contrave has much better ratio of benefit over risk.

After I read EVERY pages of FDA briefing doc, I feel FDA paid greatest attentions to the cardiovascular risks. The sheer volume of numbers, tables, figures made most of us skeptical of a favorable vote. But the favorable benefit/risk ratio could not be denied. Contrave has also demonstrated a very good profile for the obese and diabetes: higher HDL, lower triglyceride, and better glycemic control.

I was wrong about both arna and vvus. That said, there is no way that orex will get a positive panel vote based on their experiences.