Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:OREX)

HealthcareGuy

Despite coming to the market later than the competition, I believe Orexigen has the best chance to become the market leader in the newly rejuvenated obesity drug market.

The company's drug, Contrave, is not considered a controlled substance unlike the competition. Doctors are more likely to prescribe a drug that is less habit forming and easier to get a refill of.

Additionally, the company expects great results form the cardiovascular safety study required for FDA approval. They expect results in the second quarter of this year, ahead of schedule, allowing them to get the drug to market as early as the first quarter of 2014.

They also have the benefit of Takeda Pharmaceuticals, which will likely commit more sales reps to Contrave than Arena and Vivus have for their drugs combined.

Contrave makes the most sense out of the other anti obesity drugs in the pipeline.

Qsynia is out in my opinion as the risk of birth defects rules out a huge market of potential customers.

Belviq seems alright and I like what they're doing in focusing on diabetes, but imo doesn't lead to enough average weight loss for rational insurers to cover the hefty cost.

Beloranib is interesting but what percentage of the market can it get when the drug is IV? I

Contrave seems to hit that sweet spot of decent average weight loss without major average side effects. We'll see what happens with the FDA but if I was forced to choose one of these four medications to succeed, Contrave would have my vote.

stock spam

there doing well

Long time until it'll have the safety data to resubmit.

porto. likedded it.

Give it a shoot what do you have to loose money lol let get it

So far, 2012 has been the year of baby biotech. Right now, anyone who made a New Year's resolution to invest in the sector is thinking they're a genius. But those of us who have been around long enough to see the tide roll in and out a few times are making our preparations for the lean times that will surely follow. I've been selling my more speculative positions into strength, and in the case of Orexigen it seems I left a few thousand dollars on the table.

Just a few short months ago I decried the irrationality of Orexigen traders as the share price meandered completely unfettered to the fundamental catalysts that determined the future of the company. In September the share price was as low as 1.28, giving the company a market cap well below their cash reserves. Since then, the only positive development has been a communication from the FDA that they would accept an interim analysis of the proposed cardiovascular outcomes study as sufficient grounds for approval of Contrave. The share price spiked as high as 2.6, then declined as low as 1.51 again before embarking on the most recent upward trajectory.

The market cap is now 132M and the cash position will almost certainly be below 60M the next time earnings are reported. But the outcomes study hasn't even started yet and the company estimates that it will be at least two years before the interim analysis can be performed. And of course the whole situation still suggests that the FDA sent Orexigen off on a virtually impossible task in order to avoid ever being asked to approve Contrave again. I gobbled this stock over the summer when the price was 1.5, but now I wouldn't buy a share over 1.3.

A two year wait for an gaurnteed 10 bagger, damn smartphone

Its ready to make me some money!!!

Friday's announcement

sac

The drug still has a chance... after big drop last week, seems like the risk/reward ratio is very favorable, especially for the CAPS portfolio. Let's see if I can't pick up a quick couple points on the rebound and lock in a winner...

oversold

I believe this "contrave" will be extremely critical coming Jan 31 when FDA approves or disapprove. The Board of Review already voted 13-7 most of the time the FDA approves on the recommendations. The other two Arena and VVUS pose no threat here but VVUS already gone over seas to seek aprroval but if Contrave Approves most likely they will try to go ove to Europe to Broaden sales and groth to the company. All in all its in the Bag!

Just got recomendation for approval from FDA advisory committee. Expected to get FDA approval in Jan.

Strong possibility of Contrave being approved by the FDA (31-Jan-2011 meeting) after early Dec-2010 recommendation from FDA advisory panel. Contrave is made up of two FDA-approved drugs with long histories and data to back up safety claims.

Two drugs that people are already taking that may make you loose weight + an overweight population = profit