Osiris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSIR)

likely going down

I had to take a nine month hiatus from rating Osiris after the stock executed a quick double after my last red thumb for reasons I'll never comprehend. The market yawned when Prochymal was approved in Canada and then went hogwild when New Zealand did the same. Were the buyers unaware that New Zealand has an even smaller population than Canada, and most of those are sheep? Or did they think that a domino effect that started in Canada and continued to New Zealand would next strike the US?. It's hard to know, but the stock gave back a substantial portion of the gains quickly, whipsawed for six months, and then gave back the rest in 2013.

The share price jumped 8% today, with the only likely catalyst being the establishment of a proprietary sales force for wound goo Grafix. This product generated revenues of 1.1M, 1.6M, and 2.2M in the last three quarters and I'm dubious that the proprietary sales force will generate enough additional sales to justify their salaries and expenses. Either way, the real story of Osiris is Prochymal which I'm confident is a zombie therapeutic. Despite the company's wangling of approval in weak secondary markets for Prochymal in GVHD, the trials were failures and big bro Sanofi has terminated their collaboration. A phase III trial of Prochymal in Crohn's is apparently continuing after having failed an interim futility analysis years ago. And of course there's a phase II trial in acute MI, everyone's favorite target for torturing superficially significant data from purely physiologic endpoints.

Adam Feuerstein has previously pointed out Osiris' extremely high insider ownership, which allows management to exert unusual control over the share price. Osiris is far too dangerous to short, but for CAPS purposes I'm comfortable that eventually this pick will bring me closer to score leadership.

Hopefully this speculative pharma red-thumb doesn't hurt me like some others have these past few months. (http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/biopharma-run-up-is-ruining-my/763269) I tend to agree with those who are realistic about the company's recent nod on Prochymal and ask "Yeah, so what?" This is tough for me because I am an absolute believer in the gargantuan impact stem cells will one day have on society. However, there are still too many obstacles and questions that remained to be answered. Maybe in a few years OSIR and ATHX will be on a less risky road.

stock spam

May not be the top, but all unjustified runs come to an end.

Biotech stock that has failed tests repeatedly. The company is now data-mining, refusing to admit their 'next big drug' doesn't work.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10688564/1/osiris-ceo-flogs-failed-drug-biobuzz.html

Unusually high call volume at $10 for 3/10

Stem cell company with partnership with Genzyme. Market value $220 million with cash $130 million. Percieved failure lead product trial tanked stock.

14 US$ 1 Nov 2009

I say it's time to get in on this stock.

So much money lost on their failed drug.

super option yields and a firm 10.00 bottom

New approval for phase III drug next week.

Best Bio Bets

The only stem company that makes money. Huge deal with Genzyme. They are ready to double.

With the Democrats in, this industry will receive a boost. I was "foolish" enough to sell this stock after a quick bounce shortly after its IPO. I am still a bit timid with this sector and its corresponding volatility...

Phase II data was exceptional.

This 'drug' (really cells) are the last in a line of options for patients dying of GVHD. If you don't know what GVHD is, you shouldn't rate this stock. The safety data thus far are exceptional, and if they have a little efficacy (and it looks like they have a lot), this will be a

This will be approved, and the use of the drug expanded rapidly.

At 15K per treatment (my numbers), they need a base of about 3500 patients to be a 500 million revenue.. should value at 5 bill or a 10 bagger...

Good luck

Stock that has beat the S&P 500 most of 2008 and insiders own more than 10 percent of the stock.

At $16, this stock is over priced. It has a lot of future potential but has very little profits to speak of. Their trials in adult stem research have shown major break troughs but are expensive. This stock should bloom with a more liberal president in office. In the short term, the stock is a $12-13 stock. In the long term, this stock will eventual explode IF they do not use all of their capital before FDA approval.