Oshkosh Corp (NYSE:OSK)
A designer, manufacturer and marketer of a variety of specialty vehicles and vehicle bodies predominately for the North American and European markets.
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On the value side.
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Fidelity big buys best bargains.
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Well, my first CAPS outperform pick on OSK was right on the money, up +605 in less than a year. My most recent pick is down at -60 at the moment, which clearly shows that I jumped the gun getting OSK back on my watchlist.
Despite this volatility, there are some interesting things going on at Oshkosh that make it worth a deeper look. Here's a recent blog post on this topic:
http://beta.fool.com/brewcrewfool/2012/07/31/oshkosh-is-worth-a-deeper-look/8230/
Brian
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Ugly stepchild of the access community. Jlg owned Oshkosh is number one and if it were not for Oshkosh military would be riding higher. If only jlg would break away. If osk continue to pull back jlg... Terex tex has a chance in 3-5 years - maybe
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magic formula, the company might be fine later on, but the timing of my pick is what really sucked and that coupled with the reasoning I made these picks at this time makes it even worse. I went against my plan to be out of the market by may because i wanted to use up most of my free trades before they expired in a month or so--silly reasoning. was pretty much a wash in real life just not on caps because I decided to hold them and hope.
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This company is a huge value trap. The government is going to have to downsize military spending and it's already happening now. Their equipment is going to face considerable downside risk as the budget debates get fiercer each year.
While it's current positives include a nice balance sheet and Mr. Icahns support, that isnt going to stop it from going down if they have business pressures going forward.
I believe this is going to be a great opportunity to go against Mr. Icahn since he is obviously blundering this time. Consider this a turkey if Mr. Icahn gets them to leverage up on debt to buyback and then combine it with declining business. This is going to be a poor stock going forward.
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Magic Formula
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There were 30 items in your list. Here they are in random order:
OSK CAPS=3 star
IPXL
PWER CAPS=4 star
VPHM
RIGL CAPS=2 star
SCEI
TSRA
DELL
POZN
MSFT
AFAM
APOL
VECO
AMED
VNDA
TNAV
ARO
SUPG
TER
SOLR
CMTL
UIS
PRSC
CHKE
SNDK
AGX
IDCC
LO
USMO
FRX
Timestamp: 2011-03-15 01:01:50 UTC
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Too cheap to pass up. The sky is only partially falling, but not on OSK. This company has been around forever and will be around 0 years from now. Starting to ramp up in China and emerging markets. One of the most attractive companies in the market right now from a valuation perspective. At these prices and cashflows OSK is a potential takeover candidate; wouldn't be surprised if Tata motors had them in their cross hairs. Curry and beer anyone?
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Here's the buy rec:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/12/07/rising-star-buy-oshkosh.aspx
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Picked from a screen that looks for stocks with low pe/roe ratios and then further looks for the lowest possible forward pe ratios. This screen typically outperforms by 20% or more based on backtests over the last decade. No other due diligence performed.
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because the low P/E and low current price
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Currently contracting in Afghanistan. OSK vehicles are everywhere and new Forward Operating Bases are being created all the time. This war is getting bigger not smaller. DynCorp is expanding like crazy over here.
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I got this stock at 27.89, all the analysts said the defense industry is a no buy...They were wrong. The US is still in a uncertain war, and the vehicles oshkosh makes are the back bone of our army. FYI Even if the war ends the US still need vehicles in peace time. Especially LMTV's. I used these vehicles in both afghan and Iraq, they make good products.
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While a large part of OSK's business today is centered on defense, they have shown signs of recovery and growth in their non-defense business which indicates they are taking the necessary steps to succeed.
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Remember in 08/09 when these guys were at like $4 bucks, they just lost a huge government deal, and everyone said this could be the end of OSK? Why didn't I buy it IRL???? Because i'm an idiot; further proving that i'm still buying stocks, and haven't yet reached the point of actually "investing". One day i'll get there. One day i'll have half a brain...i hope.
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I believe Oshkosh may be a good pick in the future mainly because of its sub company Oshkosh Defense. They are the primary makers of combat vehicles in the military, and do to the war in Afghanistan they have tried to stop using hmmv's because they serve virtually no protection against IEDs. So Oshkosh defense has been making new MATV vehicle's in which are highly
resistant to IEDs and many other high armored combat vehicles(http://www.oshkoshdefense.com/defense/products~matv~home.cfm). Being active duty myself and seeing the military invest in these new vehicles its only safe to say that many more will be made in order to save lives overseas.
Now for the bad news Oshkosh as a whole company does have things to think about when it comes to the numbers.
1. They dont pay dividends.
2. Accounts recievable is extremely high, and up until the Dec 2009 10-Q it was actually HIGHER than the cash & equivalents.
3. Their long-term debt is up there but has consistently been decreasing since 2007.
4. And to finish off the 2009 net income . . . it was negative!!!
I still think that all of these scary numbers but they all have slowly been increasing with better results. If you break it down Oshkosh defense not only have great products on their hands, they are also saving lives overseas, thats just something you cant ignore.
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