Overstock.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSTK)

CAPS Rating: 1 out of 5

The Company is an online closeout retailer offering discount brand name merchandise, including bed-and-bath goods, home decor, kitchenware, watches, jewelry, electronics and computers, sporting goods, apparel and designer accessories.

OSTK News and Commentary

Caps

How do you think OSTK will perform against the market?

Add Stock to CAPS Watchlist

All Players

355 Outperform
688 Underperform
 

All-Star Players

72 Outperform
204 Underperform
 

Wall Street

2 Outperform
4 Underperform
 

Top OSTK Bull/Bear Pitches

The best Bull and Bear pitches based on recency and number of recommendations.

modestus1 (< 20)
Submitted April 19, 2013

Next AMZN

jed71 (99.84)
Submitted November 29, 2017

I have disliked this company for a long, long time. With the wild and well-known antics of their CEO, Patrick Byrne, this company has been a regular target of short sellers ever since I began following them. The company made an announcement back in… More

OSTK VS S&P 500 (SPY)

Fools bullish on OSTK are also bullish on:

Fools bearish on OSTK are also bearish on:

Recent Community Commentary

Read the most recent pitches from players about OSTK.

Recs

1
Member Avatar jed71 (99.84) Submitted: 11/29/2017 12:18:17 PM : Underperform Start Price: $53.85 OSTK Score: -0.79

I have disliked this company for a long, long time. With the wild and well-known antics of their CEO, Patrick Byrne, this company has been a regular target of short sellers ever since I began following them. The company made an announcement back in December of 2016 that it was entering the blockchain technology and cryptocurrency market. I don’t really think many investors thought much of it back then, but wow, the stock was sitting around $17 a share and has screamed to over $60 as of just a few days ago. It appears a lot of shorts have been massively burned over the past year. Much of this has to do with the huge movement of Bitcoin (BTC) higher, which has gone up more than 1,000% in the past year alone.

There are several key factors playing into this massive move higher for OSTK. First, as I mentioned, BTC is trading at a massive premium to its price earlier this year. Investors also appear to be valuing blockchain technology based on the valuation of the underlying assets (bitcoins) rather than based on the revenue generated by the technology. This has driven a good portion of the blockchain firms higher during the year. Second, Overstock has announced its intention to pursue a sale of its ecommerce business and the stock went wild in mid-November over this news. Third and finally, the market seems to have come to the realization that cryptocurrency isn’t just a fad. Many younger investors have enthusiastically embraced this new investment / currency tool.

Let me start off by saying, I do believe some of the cryptocurrency firms will be successful. Bitcoin will probably be one of them (at least that’s the way it looks right now). I believe the technology will be extremely disruptive to the way we handle money, how we pay for things, and how we comprehend the value of an asset. It might even play into how fiat currencies are valued (who knows?). But as with the marijuana, gold mining, solar, and other super-hot and trendy markets, there will also be players who will crash and burn. I tend to look at the history of firms heavier than many investors because, while not perfect method, it gives you some clues as to where they’ve come from and what they are capable of accomplishing. In the case of Overstock, I have very low expectations within the cryptocurrency markets. Look at how they have run their ecommerce business. Of the last five quarters, only one has been profitable. They are burning free cash flow at the rate of about $25 – 30MM per quarter. And the balance sheet is most definitely not the strongest I have seen. In addition, Overstock is only just beginning their product launch of their tZero tokens. To wit:

“tZERO announced that the company's token sale, utilizing a Simple Agreement for Future Tokens (or SAFT), will begin on December 18, 2017. tZERO confirmed that tokens will provide investors the following unique token characteristics:

-- Revenue participation in the form of a distribution, which will be a percentage of tZERO's revenue; and
-- Utility to pay for fees and/or services within the tZERO eco-system.”

In addition, I think the crypto market is in a big bubble right now. It’s hard for me to believe that an asset such as BTC, which was valued for a few hundred dollars at the end of last year is now worth $11K. The bitcoin market appears to be massively overvalued. And don’t think the government is going to stay silent and allow this new currency to be unregulated. I believe we are at the very beginning of a series of regulations that will most likely make it harder to own / trade / sell and deal in cryptocurrencies.

Maybe I am wrong on all of this, and Overstock is just at the beginning of its run higher, but I highly doubt it. I am fairly comfortable that from this price I should see at least a 50% decline in the value of OSTK’s shares.

Recs

0
Member Avatar sharedinvestor17 (53.62) Submitted: 11/24/2017 10:41:26 PM : Outperform Start Price: $64.65 OSTK Score: -17.30

Bitcoin payment model

Recs

0
Member Avatar rassoodock (45.41) Submitted: 9/15/2017 2:32:17 AM : Underperform Start Price: $24.75 OSTK Score: -114.66

Bitcoin and buyout hype way out of control.

Leaderboard

Find the members with the highest scoring picks in OSTK.

Score Leader

tomlue

tomlue (< 20) Score: +701.46

The Score Leader is the player with the highest score across all their picks in OSTK.

Top
Pick
Member Name Member
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
Score Commentary
tomlue < 20 4/20/2012 Outperform 5Y $5.98 +817.22% +92.28% +724.94 0 Comment
nmp5861 36.16 5/22/2012 Outperform 1Y $6.49 +745.15% +101.03% +644.12 0 Comment
yalan26 55.90 2/16/2012 Outperform NS $6.62 +728.55% +95.73% +632.82 0 Comment
nabajwa < 20 6/5/2012 Outperform 3M $6.70 +718.66% +106.73% +611.93 0 Comment
vierlierer 71.15 1/27/2012 Outperform 3Y $6.91 +693.78% +102.67% +591.11 0 Comment
wcwa 32.91 10/31/2011 Outperform NS $8.39 +553.75% +109.85% +443.91 0 Comment
OrangeOnaToothpk < 20 3/12/2008 Outperform 1Y $9.42 +482.27% +107.75% +374.52 0 Comment
winner59 89.04 3/14/2008 Outperform 3Y $9.65 +468.39% +108.77% +359.62 0 Comment
cet0475 67.61 10/9/2012 Outperform 5Y $10.19 +438.27% +83.71% +354.57 0 Comment
gcus4321 88.15 3/18/2008 Outperform NS $9.77 +461.41% +110.77% +350.64 0 Comment

Wall Street

See what the Wall Street professionals think, according to their public statements and filings.

Player Name Player
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
S&P
Gain
Score End Date Commentary
TrackWayneRogers 51.99 7/26/2013 Outperform 3M $34.40 +59.45% +58.05% +1.40 0 Comment
TrackBofASec 94.95 7/3/2013 Underperform NS $28.00 +95.89% +65.74% -30.15 0 Comment
TrackBofASec 94.95 4/19/2013 Outperform NS $17.30 +56.88% +4.22% +52.66 7/3/2013 @ $27.14 0 Comment
TrackUltraLong < 20 11/7/2011 Underperform NS $8.10 +577.16% +112.12% -465.04 1 Comment
TrackTheBenchmar 78.23 4/14/2011 Outperform NS $14.69 -34.79% -2.06% -32.73 10/27/2011 @ $9.58 0 Comment
TrackStandpoint 37.80 4/9/2010 Outperform NS $19.82 -20.28% +19.07% -39.35 10/31/2012 @ $15.80 0 Comment
TrackFeltlandCo 76.79 9/14/2009 Outperform NS $12.40 +8.31% +13.13% -4.83 10/29/2010 @ $13.43 0 Comment
TrackStifel 91.80 2/2/2009 Underperform NS $10.50 -25.71% -12.60% +13.11 3/4/2009 @ $7.80 0 Comment
TrackCanaccord < 20 4/23/2008 Underperform NS $17.10 +220.76% +100.93% -119.83 0 Comment
TrackZacks < 20 10/23/2007 Underperform 3M $35.46 -63.62% -34.89% +28.73 10/20/2008 @ $12.90 1 Comment
TrackStifel 91.80 10/16/2007 Underperform NS $32.30 -25.98% -6.39% +19.59 11/28/2007 @ $23.91 0 Comment
TrackSoros 87.20 9/30/2007 Outperform NS $28.80 +90.45% +82.64% +7.81 1 Comment
TrackBroadpointAmTech < 20 12/13/2006 Underperform NS $16.12 +9.62% +1.96% -7.65 2/7/2007 @ $17.67 0 Comment
TrackWedbush 87.15 9/28/2006 Underperform NS $17.88 +206.77% +110.92% -95.85 0 Comment

Featured Broker Partners