Och-Ziff Capital (NYSE:OZM)

MegaShort (99.95) Submitted: 3/12/2013 2:28:18 PM : Start Price: $8.85 OZM Score: -20.40

When valuing asset managers, I take tangible book value (TBV) and add a percentage of assets under management (AUM).

The percent of AUM varies depending on the quality of the business (reflected in fees and growth). A great alternative asset manager might be worth 5% of AUM, a mediocre alternative might be worth 3%, a great mutual fund manager 2%, a mediocre mutual fund manager 1%.

OZM's TBV is -$250M and AUM is $34.6B. To justify the market cap, the percent of AUM needs to be 12.3%. The valuation appears quite unreasonable.

Sumflow (< 20) Submitted: 10/16/2012 9:13:52 PM : Start Price: $9.20 OZM Score: +11.23

Insider buying

campwt00global (37.36) Submitted: 1/11/2012 2:04:30 PM : Start Price: $7.98 OZM Score: +15.71

big insider buying

GarlicEater7 (< 20) Submitted: 7/12/2011 7:43:38 PM : Start Price: $11.59 OZM Score: -26.49

Brilliant management team will create value as they have done for a long time.

larchmont1 (< 20) Submitted: 2/10/2011 11:40:11 AM : Start Price: $13.36 OZM Score: -39.54

OZM is well managed by Danny Och. In 2010 delivered high single digit to mid-teens percent returns to his invesstors with 25% of market volatility. This is a product that high net worth investors are looking for. OZM's target market has had cash sitting on the sidelines since the crisis and is now wading back in to the investing waters with both feet. Expect fund inflows and OZM management fee revenues to increase concurrently. Investing environment is good and revenues from carry should be healthy over the next few years. If market stays strong, there will be some healthy exit opportunities for certain OZM funds.

jemsa (< 20) Submitted: 11/22/2010 3:33:23 PM : Start Price: $11.56 OZM Score: -38.84

peroe15

mrindependent (65.35) Submitted: 11/22/2010 1:33:42 PM : Start Price: $11.52 OZM Score: -39.42

Picked from a screen that looks for stocks with low pe/roe ratios and then further looks for the lowest possible forward pe ratios. This screen typically outperforms by 20% or more based on backtests over the last decade. No other due diligence performed.

jaydinero (< 20) Submitted: 7/19/2010 1:39:29 PM : Start Price: $9.91 OZM Score: -39.65

This stock will definetly outperform, so far its done so

Timbofittz88 (68.42) Submitted: 3/24/2010 7:59:42 PM : Start Price: $11.60 OZM Score: -42.11

Investment banks is my 2nd REIT!!! Going Up! All of it!

hashhampton (31.12) Submitted: 5/16/2009 9:40:09 AM : Start Price: $6.66 OZM Score: -14.58

opportunistic company

cashsage (29.96) Submitted: 1/4/2009 12:36:59 PM : Start Price: $4.00 OZM Score: -106.26

OZM has a too high valuation compared to its assets under management. It is also loss making and does not distribute any dividend. It may go banrupt.

unstoppablepeon (< 20) Submitted: 10/27/2008 12:34:37 AM : Start Price: $2.68 OZM Score: -233.57

worst 30days caps

TMFMattyA (99.72) Submitted: 11/28/2007 3:46:48 PM : Start Price: $18.49 OZM Score: +56.49

I'll have to refer to Barron's on this one: In regards to OZM, "few in the history of the asset-management industry have gotten so rich while generating such mediocre performance." And look at this: OZ Master Fund (OZM's flagship hedge fund) has returned 13.9 percent over the past 5 years, compared to the S&P 500's return of 15.5 percent. And these guys actually get away with charging 2 percent management fees, while taking 20 percent of the profits. Like the hedge funds it manages, this company should underperform.