Pandora Media (NYSE:P)

I just don't see how this company will ever make enough money to justify this price. Maybe a buyout, but why would someone buy them when their service is so easy to imitate?

Slowing user growth, content costs increasing as a % of revenue and inability to increase RPM at a faster rate than acquisition costs will put LT pressure on P.

Did a survey of my friends and family and had them do a survey of their contacts as well. Conclusion is pretty much everybody is using Pandora.

Had an international family member check, and not everyone there has heard of it due to lack of marketing and well cultural connection. Example is India: majority is Hindu population and other countries like Sri Lanka has cultural history with it as well, along with Indonesia and Thailand, Nepal, other surrounding countries etc. can associate with religion/myths/history would help boost Pandora in this largely untapped markets.

High royalty fees along with new competition on an almost monthly basis makes the 'mostly free' business almost impossible to profit from.

On the free side there is IHeartRadio with seemingly less adds, HD listening, and straight forward free listening with limited skips.

On the pay side there is Rdio and Spotify which dominate the space and are both growing surprisingly fast.

In the middle there is Pandora which doesn't seems to know whether it wants to be a free service or pay service.

Additionally, there is Google/youtube and Apple which are about to break into the industry with better business models. Each separately could make Pandora irrelevant - espescially Apple with it's iTunes and iPhone user base.

There is no road to profit for Pandora.

Problems with royalty payments squeezing earnings, increased competition.

Becoming a household name, available on practically everything. It's inevitable that the subscriptions will increase.

Spotify, etc offer better service than Pandora.

content stream is in a tough place. google and apple are getting into the streaming game and a $2B valuation seems too high

Props to Rocco Pendola (who I consider a totally Foolish writer who just happens to play for other team) ... I was way wrong about this company because I didn't understand the industry. Great call by a solid writer.

One word: Spotify.

P has dedicated hardware buttons in the auto and home internet TV box arena. I love the service vs price ratio - their momentum will prevent others from catching up, even if copycats try. P has a bright future.

its only a matter of time....

Haters gotta hate: Great service, bad business model. This lofty price is way above any safe valuation. Managed to get in with a short position at about 12.84. Will ride this one out until the market catches up with reality.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323293704578330790360628594.html?ru=MKTW&mod=MKTW

Too much competition is eating market share. Pandora can barely keep up with itself. The only hope it has is through acquisition.

Margins are too thin, too dependent on content licensing.

Digtal streaming future of media transfer

With the current Pandora model, the company will not be able to keep up with the multiple new options that are beginning to emerge. As Spotify continues to increase its presence in the music industry, and with the emergence of apps such as Tunein and iheartradio, I believe that Pandora is going to trouble keeping up their revenue stream. With a price/book ratio of 26, the stock appears to be significantly overpriced.

Unprofitable, overvalued company with no moat offering a free service that is inferior to an ever growing list of competitors, especially Spotify.

This article I wrote sums up why I think Pandora will outperform long term: http://beta.fool.com/evanbuck/2012/12/07/pandoras-boombox-future-internet-radio/18198/

I may be coming in with this call a little early, but I also feel confident that even if I'm very early, this pick will go positive in the long run. In my opinion, this stock "may" be a good buy closer to $6.50, but will generally be played safer as a short sell on high days.

Starting around October 4, the stock experienced a downside of greater than 30% on rumors of Apple's upcoming streaming music service through iTunes 11. After that, a rally started with news of CEO Joseph Kennedy's entrance into the Lower Chamber to discuss the IRFA. The stock soared 20%, expectations were positive for the Q3 earnings, and the day before the release on December 4, analysts at SunTrust reaffirmed a buy. Despite having an outstanding Q3 earnings, Pandora plummeted nearly 20% the next day because the anticipation for the next stretch of time had a negative outlook. (I guess some institution needed an excuse to bag a gain, eh?)

Now the stock seems to be climbing up again on the recommendations of analysts from several institutions who rate the stock with a "buy," and whom even place a price target for the stock as high as $15. Wait a minute here... why is now a good time to buy in?

Apple may have postponed the release date of its iTunes 11 (which is a good move on Apple's part and one that will hurt Pandora in the long run as Apple refocuses on quality services), but we still have the almost certain fiscal cliff fast approaching and Pandora still pays around 50% of its revenues to its high Content Acquisition Costs. Try researching "Time for Pandora to Face the Music," a great article by Xavier Brenner.

While the IRFA is on the table, the actual effects of that bill won't be felt until 2016 (assuming it passes). This means that Pandora will unfortunately be paying out the wazoo for some time to come.

I'm a bit sad to say it because I like Pandora myself, but over the last year it seems like Customer Acquisition has slowed down a bit. In the short term, this could be a good thing because it will allow Pandora some time to get comfortable with its present business model. (In my opinion, it is because of this slowed Customer Acquisition that Q3 earnings were good because Content Acquisition Costs were more in line than usual.) In the long run, however, this will allow potential customers to be taken into similar services offered by competitors and it also opens up the door for some lead "hipster" to say: "You know what, this service just ain't kickin anymore."

This whole rant is of course just my opinion by the way; always do your own research! I will say that Pandora seems to be walking a very fine line. Time will tell if this company can survive the popularity storm, remain cool, and fix the financial burden it has. Presently, it seems way more likely that the stock will continue to trend down until a more powerful institution like Google buys it at a low Market Cap and low stock price, at which time I shall shout "All hands on deck!"

Personally, I think Microsoft would benefit the most if it dumped Xbox Music and bought Pandora. They would probably have an easier time acquiring content compared to Apple (whom the music industry seems to detest) and I personally feel that many people would be simultaneously drawn to both the Xbox and Pandora if this happened. Alas, I think too much!

Thumbs down!