Palm, Inc. (PALM)
The Company develops, markets and sells a family of mobile computing solutions.
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This company has good products and innovation but their top management is the worst imaginable. The addition of the Apple guys to Palm is a welcome change and will fix that and the down qtr was expected. We must remember that for a tiny company who has done battle repeatedly with the 800 lb Gorilla (RIMM) who had a huge head start in the industry, Palm isn’t doing too bad.
Dead stock?? Funny for a dead stock I don’t see any debt. I wish I had a nickel for every time one of the BlackBerry carrying press corp predicted Palm’s demise (with a Black Berry bulging from their pants) so why aren’t they dead yet? Why are they still in business if they are so bad? Suddenly I hear a dial tone………they must be better than they think.
Don’t be fooled by the low share price. Everyone seems to forget about the $9 “one time” dividend they gave out which drove the stock price this low. For the first time in company history they really have a “fade phone” in the Centro, and have no where to go but up with their new operating system and revamped Treo line up this summer.
So go ahead, be a pawn and keep repeating what the “Black berry fans” keep telling you that way I can buy this at $2 a share and retire on it. Let’s talk again in 8 - 18 months and we’ll see who has made investors more money; RIMM? or PALM?
Oh these foolish, foolish mortals.
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Trading at 195% intrinsic value.
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It wasn't that long ago that Palm was the darling of the jet-set, and soon after, everyone who wanted a do-it-all personal organising device. And not soon after that, "Palm" became synonymous with "PDA", as in, "load your calendar on your Palm or Palm device..."
What happened since then?
Perhaps the most telling sign of Palm's troubles is the launch of the Pre. Much-heralded and much-expected, especially by Palm tifosi (who remember the good old days, and might even still have been using a Treo device), the Pre seems to have landed without much fanfare. Has Palm even separated out Pre sales from the rest of its device sales tally? Last I heard was no.
The Android market is gearing up and ready to put Palm in even more dire straits. Make no mistake: Android is going to be the Windows of the smart phone market. Aside from large enterprise environments which have already made giant commitments to Blackberry or MSFT software, Android is a free, open-source alternative which will revolutionise the smartphone market.
Making Sprint the launch partner for Pre, given all this, seems like a suicide pact: a former pack leader now reduced to marketing through the sickliest of the major NA carriers.
Palm hires great designers and great programmers. Let's hope that management can capitalise on their proven track record and turn things around, but for now, as the saying goes, this dog won't hunt.
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At the moment there is a slight competition with the iPhone upgrade. Treo Has been around and will bring added stability to the Treo brand.
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I just bought the palm Treo and I find the functionality to be very poor. I can see how this phone would have been remarkable a few years ago but next to the iPhone I just think it lacks features, usability and appeal. I hate to downgrade a stock because of one product but with the iPhone 3G coming out and blackberries getting better I think that Palm will have to rebuild some of its products. Add to the fact that the service it uses most(Verizon) charges nearly twice as much for its services than most other carriers and it makes a switch to the iPhone more appealing.
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I'm still a believer in a turnaround with Rubenstein's arrival, the latest Centro, strong brand name. Agree that industry is brutally competitive and Palm has had many missteps, but I'm using my 7th product from them and think a turnaround is very possible.
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How low can she go?? After reading the "palm" of my hand... this stock has no where to go but up.
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Too much competition, too poor a brand.
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Palm's Pre is the only factor sustaining its recent rebound. Given the recent history, this is a "bet-the-farm" product and it's up against some serious competition from the iPhone, Blackberry and a host of mobile phone vendors all of whom are targetting the lucrative smartphone market. Can Palm survive? Maybe, but I'm betting against it.
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Palm's book value is -$0.35 per share, including their recent $100 million cash infusion (for 30 million shares, highly dilutive). The company has lost money every quarter this year. It is looking to save the company by launching one new product into a saturated environment using the third ranked wireless provider as its exclusive retail channel, and we don't even know the price. I seriously doubt Sprint will subsidize this phone like AT&T does with Apple. Palm might as well go to Vegas and bet it all on black.
Obviously the recent moves are a huge short squeeze. Perhaps you can keep playing this game for a little while longer, but don't be left holding the cards when the music stops.
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No fancy phones = no fancy bottom line!
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Pre is hot. People are curious to break the Apple iTunes prison.
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Momentum can get you only so far. It seems to me that we're valuing the Pre at almost $4/shr. The Centro didn't replace the Blackberry just as the Pre will not replace the iPhone. That's not to say it's a poor product. Palm's balance sheet is poor. So is Sprint's customer service (I had to take a jab at them). It'll take more than hype to overcome those problems.
Disclosure: short PALM (short-term)
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This company is ripe for an aquisition. I use Palm products and am very tied into their system architecture. I'll be getting a new cell phone and I'm going to get a Treo, so I can transfer all my pdf info into it.
I own this stock primarily because of the MF tenent: but what you know.
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Getting to short this at $6 is a dream come true. 30+% rises from a phone nobody's yet seen is a little dramatic.
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I am looking in long-term and not giving much emphasis on the current earnings decline. 1) The new Centro family looks really competitive, and opens a totally new segment for Palm, 2) the new capital restructuring by paying $9 special cash dividend and taking more debt increases the tax shields but wont likely affect much earnings. The stock will be selling with huge discount after the dividend payout.
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Undervalued by all means. There has been too many bad news around this company for past six months. Clearly stock hit the bottom at the latest conference call, when the company lowered the guidance but stock didn't go down.
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Never have been a fan of there products and I just don’t see them going anywhere, might be a small gain in the next few weeks due to new product releases.
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huge recent run up without a basis in fundamentals (excitement over the pre)... this company is losing money fast with a big negative profit margin and a negative cashflow. Unless these numbers are set straight, will be out of business in the next 1-3 years... and the pre will NOT set these numbers straight vs iTouch and Blackberries, especially as america tightens its belt.
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I would sell Palm. After looking at the WebOS stuff, it really does look compelling, but right now the question is "how are they going to cash in on it?". From what I read, they have an exclusive deal with Sprint (3rd place cell co) for the new phone. The phone won't be out for some time so they are going to be burning through cash. Revenues are way down. Also, there is a chance that Apple may sue them over some IP infringements and they don't have a lot of cash to fight with (http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=11572). Apple doesn’t have to win, they just have to sow uncertainty about Palms ability to deliver.
But here is what is really compelling to me: the share price is more than double what it was less than a month ago. On January 2nd, shares were at just over $3. So what changed? They announced a new product. So, folks are speculating that this new product will make each share worth more than twice as much? Maybe it was underpriced before, but since most of the value of the stock is due to speculation about the new phone, any problem with the phone (lawsuits, delivery or technical problems, etc) could make the stock drop sharply. And even if all goes well, when would I get a return on my investment, since the potential profits on the Pre are probably already built in to the (doubled already) price?
The geek in me wants Palm to win, but the conservative investor in me just couldn’t bear the risk.
/Brian

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