Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (ADR) (NYSE:PBR)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

A one-time monopoly, Petroleo Brasileiro remains the leader in oil exploration, production, and distribution in Brazil.

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Member Avatar pchop12316 (84.96) Submitted: 8/24/2015 12:16:46 PM : Underperform Start Price: $5.07 PBR Score: -14.45

little hope for price gain in near to intermediate term

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Member Avatar andrewtraylor (46.70) Submitted: 8/23/2015 12:35:33 PM : Underperform Start Price: $4.77 PBR Score: -17.49

Oil bear market + Price Controls = Bankruptcy within 3 years

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Member Avatar cmrk3 (44.74) Submitted: 8/19/2015 9:27:48 AM : Outperform Start Price: $5.73 PBR Score: +7.79

This is not a cheap beer company. It is a cheap oil company in Brazil.

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Member Avatar Caligirl (81.72) Submitted: 5/21/2015 10:17:02 AM : Outperform Start Price: $9.44 PBR Score: -30.60

Chinese significant investment

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Member Avatar HBEJA (39.50) Submitted: 4/18/2015 4:49:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.83 PBR Score: -28.12

The oil market will continue to go up and the economy in Brazil will improve.

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Member Avatar joienpaix (23.69) Submitted: 3/18/2015 7:25:43 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.51 PBR Score: +12.27

crad198

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Member Avatar sunrizesurfer (37.63) Submitted: 3/16/2015 12:50:52 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.68 PBR Score: +18.30

Brazil will probably not allow PBR to fail, being its biggest shareholder. Taking a long view, a P/E of 2.95 seems a great entry point.

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Member Avatar CRad198 (54.86) Submitted: 3/14/2015 6:34:28 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.08 PBR Score: +19.79

There are a lot of negatives surrounding this company:
1) High inflation of 7.7% (Feb reported) in Brazil
2) Government control over pricing in an effort to control inflation
3) Corruption scandal
4) Declining liquidity metrics
5) Slowly increasing leverage
6) A potential default if audited financials aren't released by the end of April
7) Low oil prices which will hurt short- to medium-term profitability and liquidity

On the whole, the company seems pretty weak financially; however, there are several factors mitigating these risks:
1) The government will likely support the company in the event of a real liquidity crunch, for example if creditors demand early repayment of debt due to the late arrival of audited financials.
2) Oil will likely recover over the long-term, and Brazil's limit on oil prices
3) The price is right

PBR is currently trading at a Price to trailing 12 month earnings of roughly 2, and a Price to Book based on its 9/30 quarterly figures of roughly 0.19. Granted, these figures will likely worsen over the next few quarters or so as PBR's upcoming financial results reflect lower oil prices, but I still think the risks have been priced in.

IMO, this is a textbook case where you should be greedy when everyone else is fearful

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Member Avatar jftrader1 (24.38) Submitted: 2/3/2015 11:00:42 PM : Outperform Start Price: $7.08 PBR Score: -14.10

WAY OVERSOLD LONG TERM BULLISH

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Member Avatar JohnnyErik (28.58) Submitted: 1/28/2015 3:40:12 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.56 PBR Score: -9.30

Another one of my long term gambles because of the oil BS. This stock is down on corruption, oil outlook, and other negative sentiment, but I believe that this has all been priced into this stock. They are down huge because there was no write down on their late reporting quarter, but even with a 30 billion write down, they are still at 100bn+ book, but a 50bn book is reflected at the current levels (all numbers a approximate)

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Member Avatar lssilva (< 20) Submitted: 1/9/2015 10:26:02 AM : Outperform Start Price: $6.72 PBR Score: -9.54

Brazil does not adjust the oil price, what has haunted PBR is not helping it decrease its debt. Besides The current gov relly needs to boost economy if they don’t want lose the next election where ex-president Lula will try another run.

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Member Avatar Boolee (< 20) Submitted: 1/5/2015 8:39:43 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.12 PBR Score: -2.00

growth

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Member Avatar flemishinvestor (< 20) Submitted: 12/26/2014 9:39:26 AM : Outperform Start Price: $7.50 PBR Score: -16.63

Very cheap right now. Okay, it's a company in turmoil after corrupcy allegations. But, this is a huge company making lots of profits. They can take a hit.

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Member Avatar GearCat (< 20) Submitted: 12/16/2014 10:01:42 AM : Outperform Start Price: $6.23 PBR Score: -5.23

What to say? What to say? Blood in the streets on this one. Hope you have a strong stomach. Eventually the showdown between OPEC and Shale Drillers will come to a head and a lot of the little guys will disappear. What won't disappear, in my humble opinion, are the nationally owned oil companies. Brazil, even though it has problems with corruption and current leadership, is the world's seventh largest economy. My feeling is the Brazil government won't let PBR fail, in that too much of Brazil's GDP, and too many jobs would be lost. Need to do more research on this one, but if oil ever comes back (my feeling is it will) this company will still be here.

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Member Avatar SuperTerminator (34.44) Submitted: 12/15/2014 4:34:25 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.26 PBR Score: -5.94

Stock is cheap

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Member Avatar Chilli (< 20) Submitted: 12/3/2014 10:47:18 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.97 PBR Score: -29.85

I think it´s way undervalued and all possible negative factors have been priced in already.

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Member Avatar mccarrara (50.17) Submitted: 12/2/2014 12:35:34 PM : Outperform Start Price: $9.04 PBR Score: -30.77

Currently down due to political in-house scandal, however scandal will prove insignificant to revenues. In addition, oil prices will slowly rise above the current lows (12/1/14). Government will become more business friendly due to criticism. New wells will add more oil to revenues.

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Member Avatar asilverp (43.49) Submitted: 8/28/2014 10:57:06 AM : Outperform Start Price: $19.12 PBR Score: -68.12

Any problems with Russia. (probable) will ultimately benefit the oil industry in other countries. I think that south american companies have the lowest geopolitical risk of anywhere in the world right now. Government owning the company could be an advantage as well. Also has nice statistics with a PEG of 0.63, a P/E of 13.31, and p/s and p/b both < 1. If the stock of this company crashes, it seems very likely that the rest of the stocks will have crashed as well.

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Member Avatar nowshade (36.88) Submitted: 6/23/2014 7:59:54 PM : Outperform Start Price: $15.61 PBR Score: -63.49

Huge long term potential!

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Member Avatar MoneyDocSchloss (66.29) Submitted: 6/15/2014 4:35:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $15.88 PBR Score: -64.98

Looks pretty attractive at these levels. It wouldn't surprise me if it went back to $20/sh.

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