+ Watch PBYI
on My Watchlist
7B already. I don't see any company paying more than that.
up 300% in one day, enough said. Hopefully they do cure/treat all cancer but the short squeeze will likely end soon. No or little revenue, or earnings.
I probably forced Puma Biotechnology a little bit on a downthumb. Risk/Reward probably gives me low odds of turning this one. Also, any down thumbs on a biopharm brings out the halos wondering how anyone could down thumb medical science especially in a medical field such as Breast Cancer, which has pretty much affected everyone.CAPS is a Financial "game", betting against a company at one price or one juncture, is often NOT betting against a company or it's products. In the case of Puma, there are a few interesting ingredients in the pot and taking a CAPS stand keeps me vested a little deeper.1. The great mystery...how does a handful of shares traded after market set a price for an equity (barring a buyout with a fixed catalyst $$)?? How can this GAP up 280%, essentially instantaneously and hold a 3% or so trading range for 25% of the float?2. How many of the 1.4M shares which should have covered by now since 6M have traded, are held by people hanging off the Golden Gate Bridge? How many day traders live in Hawaii who are just now waking up and need to cover are out there? How many day traders are licking their wounds and RESHORTING to try to get some of their money back? How many are at the pawn shop with their wife's jewelry wondering how they can stage a robbery at home.....3. Did Pfizer know about the data before they agreed to take $30M in cash against expenses they owed Puma and a lower Royalty Rate? If so, do they think the same thing about the data as the market does??4. Can Auerbach sell PUMA like he did Cougar? At what price. The market cap is now $7B. I'm no analyst, but agree with Adam Feuerstein in his The Street article, http://www.thestreet.com/story/12783508/1/puma-shares-soar-when-wall-street-misplays-expectation-game.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO that the number of Women willing to take a secondary adjuvant therapy following Herceptin if they are otherwise showing no signs of a cancer reoccurrence is a lower market than Herceptin (about $4B a year). I think it's even lower than Adam suggests, also due to side effects for a 30% improvement. Fear of reoccurrence will indeed get a large market share, but at what level??5. If there is no buyer for Puma, then Puma has to try to make a go of it, which NEVER works well the first few years for a small company...MFG, sells teams, etc is VERY expensive and not the expertise on board for a biopharm.6. FDA filing isn't until next year. Biopharm investors are not loyal. If I was the big hedge who made out, or even a small investor, I'd move at least a third of my holdings and bank.7. Previous DATA was NOT looked upon favorably...this is preliminary data....is something being missed here? Was the Placebo actually the cure?? 8. I'm building a nice list of companies, when, where "in time" I would invest in them for a humongous pop. When my time machine is ready, I'll pop back and buy into various ones, lots of options, but nice and sneaky so I don't get noticed. I'm concerned when I hide my list for myself to find, that it won't be there, time conundrum you know....so the ones I get hurt by on CAPS will imprint on my memory and I'll be able to recall them. PBYI word association, mnemonics, Lion King..what ever works...Observation call, probably not a good CAPs play...have to think some profit taking will occur, might spike again when data is formally reviewed, might spike if a buyout/merger is brokered...might get out on a down trend when volume breaks....
See Dr. Brian Orelli's fool summary: Successful phase 3 trial testing neratinib in breast cancer patients. . . . "33% improvement in disease-free survival compared to placebo" . . . "37% improvement in disease-free survival including ductal carcinoma in situ for patients taking neratinib compared to placebo . . . "Puma plans to file for approval with the Food and Drug Administration in the first half of 2015. "Puma Biotechnology has a market cap a little above $5 billion, which doesn't seem out of line given the potential for multibillion dollars in sales. Heck, we might even see Pfizer acquire the company to get the full economics of neratinib."And Citi believes the company is now a takeover target, thus stock price will continue to go up.
3rd stage approval ready for FDA soon
This small Bio Tech company is onto key medicine break through.
IBD EPS, RS, SPROE, Acc ratings plus P/E and div yieldMEDICAL 1 96 -- A- NO EARN
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