Patriot Coal Corp Com (NASDAQOTH:PCXCQ)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

The company produces and sells thermal and metallurgical coal in the United States.

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Member Avatar porsche108 (< 20) Submitted: 7/6/2012 12:00:07 AM : Outperform Start Price: $2.55 PCXCQ Score: -146.86

Coal is in demand all of a sudden in countries across the world. Stock has tremendous potential!

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Member Avatar Jtricks (< 20) Submitted: 6/22/2012 3:10:28 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.24 PCXCQ Score: -148.84

The world's most hated coal stock. Will give the highest returns in the imminent coal rally, if only it can last into fall. But hey, no risk no fun right? BUY!

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Member Avatar GaddafiDuck (20.87) Submitted: 6/1/2012 7:42:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.88 PCXCQ Score: -144.99

Huge undervaluation. Right now puts are very attractive to investors looking to limit their risk.

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Member Avatar tallenuk (21.91) Submitted: 5/23/2012 5:30:15 AM : Underperform Start Price: $2.31 PCXCQ Score: +151.57

Get out of everything, the next 2008 is coming.

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Member Avatar mpaulsen6 (91.15) Submitted: 5/22/2012 3:52:04 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.22 PCXCQ Score: -150.95

We need to get past 2015-2016 timeframe with fundamental issues of short term leverage based greed vs. long term performance on the street. PCX is learning this lesson the hard way.

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Member Avatar Itchy16 (< 20) Submitted: 5/22/2012 11:52:43 AM : Outperform Start Price: $2.63 PCXCQ Score: -149.87

Imo it is oversold at this level.

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Member Avatar vjport (< 20) Submitted: 4/11/2012 1:34:42 AM : Outperform Start Price: $5.65 PCXCQ Score: -144.30

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_COAL_SURGING_EXPORTS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-04-10-14-27-17

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Member Avatar Brennan8it (< 20) Submitted: 1/12/2012 8:19:49 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.51 PCXCQ Score: -154.77

Coal baby yeah!

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Member Avatar jotanoma (< 20) Submitted: 12/28/2011 11:16:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.32 PCXCQ Score: -158.97

it's about that this stock gets bullish because of the Bottom Triangle chart pattern PCX

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Member Avatar cafulu (41.05) Submitted: 12/1/2011 3:28:56 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.13 PCXCQ Score: -159.13

Coal stocks are cheap now

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Member Avatar HoldThatWinner (30.91) Submitted: 9/29/2011 9:06:41 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.35 PCXCQ Score: -168.31

I need a Roscoe Pecko Coal Train Run to make a run for 99+

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Member Avatar pulsestar (< 20) Submitted: 8/11/2011 6:04:50 AM : Outperform Start Price: $13.12 PCXCQ Score: -175.81

Beaten down stock

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Member Avatar golfer121501 (< 20) Submitted: 6/21/2011 12:25:02 PM : Outperform Start Price: $20.47 PCXCQ Score: -153.95

silverminer

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Member Avatar hcve (< 20) Submitted: 1/10/2011 7:37:56 AM : Outperform Start Price: $22.93 PCXCQ Score: -157.31

coal is hot

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Member Avatar lowpdop (< 20) Submitted: 12/24/2010 4:39:17 PM : Outperform Start Price: $18.15 PCXCQ Score: -159.13

PCX 8 million ton met production, MEE ~10 million met coal production, ANR ~12 million met coal production.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-12-22/deluge-at-australian-coal-mines-to-drive-gains-in-global-prices.html

http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Metals/8331566

and PCX 5 million tons unpriced met coal production for 2011 and 8+million met coal tons unpriced production for 2012,

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=216060&p=irol-irhome

http://seekingalpha.com/article/231598-patriot-beats-market-pessimism?source=qp_article

that is a total of ~13 million tons  unpriced met coal production for PCX over the next 12-24 months...if PCX just receives 200 per ton that is ~2.6 billion in sales/revenue....PCX currently ~1.8 billion market cap, there is a ~800 million short fall or difference for just the value of PCX's expected production of 13 million met coal tons for 2011 and 2012.
Theoretically a steel company that has to buy met coal, and is going to be giving roughly ~2.6 billion to PCX or another coal company anyway for the next two years for 13 million tons means that they can buy a PCX for the money they have to give them anyway, in essence get PCX for free and in reality get them for ~800million discount for 13 million tons met coal tons at 200 power ton......... after  a take over the steel company would get  ~8million tons of met coal going forward at cost ~100 per ton,huge resource, facilities/infrastructure and ~20 million ton high grade thermal yearly production for free. 
Whoever said the street is forward thinking did not have PCX in mind....This discrepancy can not last much longer IMO, lots of shorts that clearly have not realized the amount of PCX's met coal production and how much is unhedged and again what that will do for earnings or buyout in 2011....once the street realizes this simple math and scenario for PCX and steel company dynamic PCX should be 3-5x higher share price and quickly or they will get bought out for just there 12-24 month unpriced met coal which a steel company has to buy anyway. In sept PCX sold 1 million tons at 140 a ton, and met is higher now...even if averaged 140 per ton for rest of 2011 available met tons should equal 2-6eps.
Also compared to recent buyout of WTN of 3.3B for ~3-4 million tons met coal production, would infer that buyout for PCX would be 3.3 billion at least or at least 32 per share, but this gives no value to all thermal resource/production or an extra 2-4 million met coal tonnage per year.  On another note MEE has a similar thermal and met coal production profile in the same region yet trades for over 4 billion more in market cap currently, and yet PCX does not have the lawsuit liabilities that MEE has.   The 3 year chart is also bullish, with recent double bottom and 12 month targets multiples higher from current share price.  ~16% of the float is short which is another factor that may add more fuel to the fire to reach realistic fair value and or buyout levels quickly.

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Member Avatar liverless (27.41) Submitted: 12/8/2010 9:53:24 AM : Outperform Start Price: $16.43 PCXCQ Score: -161.73

With the takeover of Western Coal, the anticipated takeover of Massey, coal stocks will continue to be rerated upwards. Patriot has lagged because of legacy contracts at low prices but those contracts will end in 2012 and so as we move into 2011 they will begin to reflect their value once those contracts expire.

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Member Avatar AGCAPS1 (39.62) Submitted: 11/24/2010 8:33:19 AM : Outperform Start Price: $16.38 PCXCQ Score: -167.05

The winter comes then usage of energy increase

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Member Avatar wr1389 (< 20) Submitted: 8/16/2010 4:01:07 PM : Outperform Start Price: $11.76 PCXCQ Score: -182.36

Coal is in the Goverment sights, They will do anything to stop mining and fail. We need it, have it and should use it. I feel PCX has the backing to hold out until everyone realizes how much we must have it.

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Member Avatar unusualpro (< 20) Submitted: 7/10/2010 11:53:32 PM : Outperform Start Price: $12.52 PCXCQ Score: -185.05

coal is here to stay

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Member Avatar 4everlost (29.55) Submitted: 6/28/2010 1:16:34 PM : Outperform Start Price: $13.28 PCXCQ Score: -185.02

Like most of the other Fools that recently added PCX to their outperform list I think that they have been unduly punished. I really like companies that are oversold in must have industry sectors (IMO demand for coal is going to increase over the next 5 years) that have low debt and a low cost structure. There could even be a "flight to energy" in the short term.

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