+ Watch PETM
on My Watchlist
The Company is a provider of products, services and solutions for the lifetime needs of pets.
Underperforming. Store parking lot is almost empty all the time in upscale area. Think it will go private and reorganize.
I am bullish on PETM, not because Jana Partners and Longview Asset Management are advocating a private sale, which could provide an immediate pop for shareholders, but because I believe in PetSmart's basic business model of combining merchandise, especially high end consumable food products, with services that can’t be delivered by UPS via the Web. A lot of pet products are a race to the bottom (low price and margin), including toys, bowls, beds, some treats, and probably even some medicine like Frontline. I like the strategy of differentiating by offering high end and organic food products that still have a low value to weight ratio and are a regular purchase. Combining that with boarding and day care, veterinary services, and grooming attracts repeat customers. Not only will this model be resistant to on-line disruption, but near impossible for mass merchants (discount and grocery stores) to replicate. I don’t believe that #2 Petco or other chains who “might” replicate the model have added anywhere near the same level of services, thought they do compete in the food area.On the other side of the coin, the recent management transition has been followed by slowing growth and market under performance. I think the relatively new management will get it right. They are in the process of improving their product mix to increase margins and customer appeal. They have even modified their corporate message to focus more directly on their customers, which aren’t pets, but (often fanatic) pet owners.Bottom line is that unless management gets too distracted by the current activism, I think that PetSmart has a bright future as either a public or a private company. While a private acquisition might provide value in the short term, I feel that in the long term shareholders will gain more value if PetSmart remains public.
14.2 price/earnings ratio is low going back 5 years. 26.57 Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is quite impressive, twelve trailing months. Debt/equity ratio of 0.42 is okay. Expanding industry with reliable payments from customers who think highly of their little best friends.
Outstanding financial position with a very solid F score. Industry leading profit margins and strong EBITDA growth. Fair market value of $70. A safety pick in a turbulent market.
As we are leaving the recession, consumers will be happy to spend more on luxuries such as pets. Petsmart is also getting into personalization of its services, something that is becoming more and more popular recently (think any online interactive service).*Research from http://risnews.edgl.com/retail-best-practices/PetSmart-Leverages-Analytics-for-Personalized-Experience91783
Retail specialty market leader that has spurred growth with same store sales versus expansion. Ongoing product mix diversity and entrance into new markets should continue impressive revenue and income streak.
I think as discretionary income increases once again that plenty of people will continue to pamper their pets. PetSmart has many different ways to do that.
Buying dog food over the internet is not convenient. Now that people aren't losing their houses as often, PETM is more recession-resistant (people will cut back on a lot before they neglect the family dog).Valuation isn't too high (not quite a value stock), dividend growth is good, growth rate is good, largest pet retailer.If it goes lower, I will buy more. Long-term play.
PETM reported earnings yesterday - March 6, 2013. Here's what S&P had to say just one day prior to earnings:March 5, 2013 04:46 am ET ... S&P REITERATES BUY RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF PETSMART (PETM 65.60****): Ahead of earnings expected March 6, we are keeping our Jan-Q EPS estimate of $1.23 and maintaining our DCF-based target price of $82. Despite recent stellar results, we think the shares sold off over the past month on increasing fears related to competition from Wag.com (a subsidiary of Amazon.com), and the impact that increased spending on its own e-commerce site will have on profitability. While we don't discount these concerns, PETM has grown rapidly in recent years despite intensifying competition, and we continue to favor the company's recession-resistant characteristics.- - Michael Souers (S&P analyst)
PETM will benefit from their continued excellent same store sales and services as well as from a retiring Boomer who has money to spend on their pet(s) as their children have now grown
Much lower on very high volume.
People are spending crazy money on pets and PETM is in the sweet spot
I placed PETM on my caps on 11/20/08 at $15.78, excluding dividends. I wanted to note it. I will be keeping them on my CAPS because believe they will steadily beat the S&P500 for many years to come. I wrote my page 12 post on PETM on 12/10/2011. The price of the stock was $49.24 and the PE ratio was 20.43. Today the price is $69.69 or 41.5% higher, but the PE ratio is only 21.71 or about 6.3% higher. The price would have to fall to $65.58 to match the PE on 12/10/2011. So although the price is moving up very well, the PE isn’t, so the value range is creating a significantly higher price range which is always good for investors.The Company has improved its balance sheet even though they now pay a $0.66 per share dividend a year and repurchased $453 million worth of their common stock. TTM cash flow was $480.93 or $4.40 per share up from $458.6 million or $4.06 per share last year. This gives them a cash flow yield of 6.3%. In 2007, melamine-contaminated dog and cat food from China caused the death of many pets. That event accelerated the trend toward the purchase of premium and natural pet foods. PetSmart is doing a great job of exploiting that trend. They also have about 43.1% of the Pet industry market. Petco has about 20.7% of the market. The big potential growth driver for PetSmart is the decline of the over 13,000 pet shops that are independently owned in the U.S. The number of small pet shops is growing smaller each year. PetSmart buying power is much larger than those companies which give them a big advantage. I believe PetSmart will benefit from the contraction of the number of small pet shops for many years to come.I don’t think PetSmart will grow rapidly, but they should give investors a steady return and steady growth. They generate huge streams of cash flow on existing stores, so they can pay a larger dividend and/or keep buying back shares. I believe, they will easily beat the S&P500 over the next ten years.Back on October 4, 2011, the Dow bottomed at 10,362.26. During that period PETM PE dropped to 16.8. For the stock to trade at a PE of 16.8 today, the stock would have to drop to $53.93. Considering the fear levels prevalent when the Dow dropped last year, I would think the PE of 16.8 would be a really good bargain target price. However, there is no guarantee the stock price will go that low without some major help from the Dow. Their long-term prospects look very good.
In the face of increased competition from the likes of Amazon and Wal-Mart the company continues to grow faster than the pet products and services segment of retail. SSS was 7% last quarter, and I expect similar numbers this quarter. Margins continue to improve as the company focuses on high-end premium products for pet owners. The company has a competitive advantage in its pet services segment over non-specialty stores like Wal-Mart and Costco, and especially online retailers like Amazon.
How can you not profit from a company that provides goodies for one of the most loved members of the family for which no expense will be spared. It's not just an animal anymore! The same as Buffet's HD, when he said you can't miss on a company where the customer tattooes it's name on their forhead.
People love their pets and Petsmart is successfully marketing high end products to animal lovers. They are dominating the pet services industry and have a cheap valuation for their earnings and growth.
PetSmart, inc seems to be making some smart decisions. The company posted a better-han-expected quarterly profit and raised its full-year outlook. PetSmart has announced an 18% increase to its quarterly dividend and a new $525 Million share purchase authorization.
In good times and even more in bad times, we love and spoil our pets. With fewer people having families, I think people feel the void with pets.
run its course.http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903964304577422280562632676.html?mod=BOL_hpp_highlight_top
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