P.F. Chang's China Bistro (NASDAQ:PFCB)

CFO buying - nice. My favorite kind of insider buying

Solid restaurants, lots of expansion opportunities - especially for Pei Wei - trading at reasonable multiple with good balance sheet. Hurt hard by exposure to southwest US, will bounce back quickly as that region picks up in next few years.

They reported $0.46 per share for the quarter. But during the quarter several restaurants were closed due to identity theft. This cost the company $0.04 per share for the quarter. This will be a temporary problem. But they expect this to affect them further in 2011. They also said commodity prices are going up. I think the lower oil prices should help some and many commodities are going down which should positively affect food costs for them – hopefully.

They are still growing well and their PE of 18 is fair enough. I dropped them from Caps after the report but the 11% drop in my opinion was plenty of a discount to re-up it in Caps.

They pay out a varying dividend which is capped at 45% of net earnings. In the quarter, they paid to shareholder $0.21. In the fourth quarter it was $0.29. Next quarter it could be higher or lower. But it should remain a healthy dividend.

They produced $85 million or about $3.70 per share in cash flow for fiscal 2010. I think that is very impressive considering it also included capital expenditures of $39 million, though down from about $49 million last year.

I was able to get the price of 39.43 on caps that is a PE of 18.78 and a cash flow yield of 10.7% based on TTM cash flow per share of $4.22 at the end of the first quarter 2011. Cash flow for the quarter was $14.4 million up from $2.9 million last year even though they spent about the same amount in capital expenditures.

They have only 201 Bistro restaurants and 171 Pei Wei restaurants. They are funding growth through cash flow. I think they have some interesting growth potential.

They have only $1.2 million in debt and $72 million in cash. CAKE PE is 22.48 which is higher than PFCB 18.78. I don't think they will have an trouble beating the S&P500 in the next five years if oil prices behave.

This is one restaurant stock I don't own yet, but it is one I think I will add. I haven't done a very close study of them though I have been watching them for many years. Does anyone have additional information on them?

tom e

I just think this concept is played out. It once felt unique. Lettuce wraps were new to me. I used to eat there on special occasions, and it was exciting -- but it's a chain to me now, so I haven't been in years.

Google the phrase Zacks Releases Four Powerful ''Buy'' Stocks, if you trust Zacks these may return at or near 26%

HaHaHa!!!!!! Strapped consumer, layoffs, higher input prices - oil and commodity prices - has been purely a momo play without NO REGARD to fundamentals.

Food is nothing to write home about. Overpriced stock.

Get ready for a "high-quality" blend of tap water and bulk-buy fish sticks. Wait, does Chang take food stamps?

overextended, overexpanded company whose earnings are likely to fall significantly the next few years, and consequently lead to a collapse of the current stock price due to valuation & already institutional ownership.

Tough times for restaurants

Reload

I'm not a fan of restaurants in this consumer environment (high gas, high food, foreclosed homes). First Madcowmonkey convinced me then, then TMFDeej drove it home and the I finally got off my butt and thumbed some down.
I've missed some easy points by procrastinating.

PF Chang's might be one the more affected ones out there. It's mid to high price range so it does have some exposure to customer trading down but the real problem here is the rice shortage and possible rice shortages in the future. I don't know about you but I don't want to eat Chinese without rice. Twice in may I've gone to two separate PF chang's and been denied rice due to shortages. This can not be good for their bottom line or customer retention.

PFCB is not cheap to begin with and has a moderately high amount of debt (0.60 LT to equity). I don't expect them to have a stellar 2008 even in a better situation.

I think there is strong pressure to the downside on this stock due to a probable earnings miss (es) coming up.

Input costs are going up, Americans are going broke and competitors can substitute Chicken.
http://www.snopes.com/horrors/food/chinese.asp

Oh PF Changs, you expanded too quickly into markets already taken by your other restaurants. Now they wonder why sales are down, Anyone who has been to one of their restaurants lately can see the quality of the experience is way down as they scramble to cut costs. This restaurant already reminds me of TGIfridays. Bad management+forgettable food=diving stock.

great food

I was down in North Carolina earlier this year and new restaurants were popping up all over the place. PF Changs has a great business and their restaurants are always jam packed, even for lunch. When the market turns around later this year, this should head back to 40 in no time.

Their Great Wall of Chocolate is awesome.

I am betting on a temporary upward blip here. P/E is high and will get higher as recession bit customers discover a reduced appetite for Chang sauce.

Fantastic company with tremendous growth potential! The restaurant is amazing and the stock, although not on "sale", still looks to be a good value.

As of close of business on 12/18/2007, this was a 5-star Morningstar stock trading at less than half it's Morningstar fair value.