The Progressive Corp (PGR)

This account tracks the performance of the investment firm Ruane, Cunniff, and Goldfarb - the investment manager of Sequoia Fund.

Upthumb. Misunderstood insurance stock. Good valuations.

This is a very untraditional Jakila The Hun pick. Not sure how it'll work out. This green thumb is based on my belief that Progressive has long-term advantages in the insurance business that will help them to succeed moving forward. See Navi Ragarajan's article comparing Progressive and Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary, GEICO, for a bit of an analysis on this:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/144346-geico-vs-progressive-selected-10-year-metrics

I also like the fact that Progressive has a very strong balance sheet that might *understate* to some degree their actual strength. Note that a very substantial chunk of PGR's total assets are tied up in investments (maybe 2/3 of total assets). Much of that was fixed maturity investments, but notice they also had fairly large equity holdings that are probably undervalued on the books over the long term since the market is overly beaten down right now (and was even more beaten down on 3/31/09; the date of their last 10-Q). I came up with a current book value of around $6.30 per share for PGR, but I could see how that could jump up to at least $7.00 - $8.00 in a better environment.

I am by no means an expert on the insurance industry, but earnings and cash flows have been relatively strong for PGR. For FY '07, they earned about $1.60 per share and in FY '06, they brought in earnings of $2.10 per share. PGR technically turned a 10 cent per share loss for FY '08, but it's deceiving because most of that comes from a $1.45 billion realized loss on equity securities. That's not going to happen again moving forward. If you ignore that one item, they had earnings of $2.01 per share for FY '08. For the most recent quarter, they had earnings of 35 cents per share, as well.

It's difficult for me to come up with some form of "normalized earnings" for PGR, but I'd wager to say that even if we played it on the conservative side, we could say around $1.40 per share. Using a 9.5% cost of capital (which might be high considering that their notes have paid out about 6% - 7% in interest traditionally), I come up with a valuation of $28 using the $1.40 figure with a 3% growth rate. If I up that to $1.65, it's closer to $31. At $2, it's closer to $36 per share. I'm going to go with the conservative $28 with a reasonable discount for uncertainty --- so let's say $24.

The stock is currently selling at $14.50 and given PGR's significant long-term advantages, it looks like a bargain for more conservative investors with a long-term timeframe. This is a nice position that appears to be undervalued, but that should continue to grow in the future. My only qualm is the one pointed out by SuperPicks --- PGR seems expensive compared to some of its competitors. That my be good enough reason to stick around and see if one can get a better price. If it were to drop back to $12 or $10, it would be an absolute steal. All the same, this is not a bad pick-up at $14.50.

In the sense that this is a "conservative growth pick" that might be "on the expensive side comparatively", this is a very un-Jakila The Hun like selection, but I occasionally make these types of picks.

Outperform over a 5-10 year time frame.

P&C market is hardening.

This is a great short opportunity as it seems its trading at a premium to most insurance companies.
Over the next 5 years, we may see increased claim payout costs by property insurance carriers. Costs that I bet haven't been foreseen by the market in general for property insurance carrier (& if it has, well, definitely not for PGR). Therefore when reality hits the market in the face, this stock will underperform.
Ironic, as the company may have already foreseen such risks through its actuarial models & priced its premiums accordingly - however that matters not, because the market values the company itself on it's own criterion.
As going short is risky, I would instead offset a short on PGR with a buy in UTR which appears fairly valued.
Maybe CAPS can help on this one; why would anyone buy PGR for $11billion when one can buy UTR for just under $1billion??
Any comments, questions, criticisms are appreciated.

Those who are hoping for a recovery will be disappointed. Sell early sell often

What do you think people stop paying for after they barely pay their rent?

Plus their commercials suck

After next quarter they won't have strong earnings to offset their terrible investment decisions and will be down-graded and either go insolvent of get bought at firesale prices.

RSI 5 - 20 cross

Firstly, I think people are driving less with significantly higher gasoline prices - Fewer miles driven driven should result in fewer accidents.

Other significant auto insurers, notably AIG (under some recent new management), are adopting considerably restrictive underwriting rules, raising premiums and cutting some premium payment plans - should make it easier for Progressive to compete for business.

Company is aggressive as well as progressive. Spike in gas prices will cut back on driving and result in lower loss claims. Also casualty insurance industry is ripe for mergers, and PGR is a good candidate either to take over another company or to be acquired by a larger one.

GPR has always been an inovator in the boring insurance industry. It has been growing too fast and needed time to slow down and digest its business. It is now in a great position to grow profitably albeit slower. A good stock to own for the long haul

Progressive stock has gone up to over $100.00 two times after a couple of 3 for 1 stock splits in the past 5 to 7yrs. A third stock split brought it down to $26.99 per share and Progressive is now at approx. $16.00 per share. Wise investment. Definetely due to go up again. This stock will most definetely see $53.00 on upwards per share in the near future. Definetely a buy. Buy, buy, buy. I use to work for the company and made out extremely well with their stocks. Still have all my shares and I am adding to them.

Good products, cheap rates, excellent claims service (better than my own insurer, whom i wont name), and a cheap buy right now. itll be back and now is the time to buy.

Found this company under the insurance tag. Sell all property insurance and casualty stocks, or see your portfolio bcome a casualty! Warren Buffett is negative on the sector and that's good enough for me. Financial sector s--t has to work iits way through the whole goose.

Progressive Insurance Company. All types of consumer policies Key Stat are impressive. Should grow nicely in value.

The leader in profit for the industry with a proprietary client/consumer database that ensures it will remmain the leader.

Competition from Geico and some up-and-coming companies like esurance is forcing Progressive to cut rates in order to gain and retain PIFs (policies in force). This will create smaller profit margins and low income growth. Progressive should break out of their current slump, but not within the next year.

I think this cheap auto insurer has bottomed.

Bought in at 21 and buying in again around $19.25 to average costs.