Pulte Homes, Inc. (PHM)

how can things get worse??

20$ stock in 12 months.

Good co.

Pulte Home has the system to deliver a home on time. From ground breaking to punch lis, Pulte completes a home in about 50 - 55 days. I know because I bought one and they gave me the date we were to close, and guess what? Pulte was dead on time! I have never dealt with a homebuilder that did that.

Centex is a company they bought because Pulte was running out of dirt to build homes on. Centex owns a lot of dirt but doesn't have the assembly line home building skills Pulte perfected, and it is a good marriage I feel will reward patient shareholders.

This is also a baby boomer play. Pulte is the best of breed in active adult living communities, and bought Del Webb. Pulte has needed some time to learn how to deal with the retirement crowd but they've figured it out.

When I bought my home I was annoyed the sales person kept telling me "no," everytime I asked if I could pay for a personal upgrade. However, looking at it from an owner's point of view, Pulte eliminates 3 days of waiting for buyers to choose amenities. The time saved gives Pulte the advantage of controlling the manufacturing and eliminating the variables that slows down cash coming in - buyers taking time to decide.

I am a Pulte homeowner and shareholder, willing to take the long road for Pulte and Centex to figure out the best way to merge their operations. I understand Centex owns a lot of dirt in areas like Arizona, New Mexico, and Pacific Northwest' all desire able destinations for aging baby boomers looking for a home in the country, with fellow aging hippies.

Pulte continues to win J.D. Powers owner satisfaction awards before the merger, and after. So, while the numbers are horrible the future appears bright. If you are a true contrarian who wants to own a company responsive to their home owners, Pulte is the builder for you.

While shopping in Northern, CA for a new construction home, my wife and I always gravitated to the Pulte floor plans. They are open, filled with light, and appear to be designed with the woman of the house in mind. We bought in Georgetown, TX, about 40 miles north of Austin. It is a great community and neighbors care about each other. This is the hippie commune that finally came together.

Buy Pulte while it is cheap. They will get their mojo back on track, once the transitional growing pains are worked out. Remember, we aren't getting any younger!

11.85 by Nov 1st

Since PHM’s merger with CTX will result in the creation of the largest home builder in the US - and insofar as we expect to see
increased M&A activity across many industries as credit conditions improve while valuations remain low - we took a closer look at
the PHM/CTX transaction. Conditions in the homebuilding market are as bad as they've ever been, obviously; and 2009 industry
revenues could easily fall to levels representing half of 2007 sales. Therefore, attempting to model sales growth, margins or asset
turns for the combined PHM entity would be useless. However, the new PHM will own a geographically and end-product
diversified portfolio of properties against a moderately-leveraged capital structure. Both companies have taken impairment charges
totaling something north of 40% of original book - and it seems reasonable to assume future impairments would be modest by this
scale barring an additional cataclysmic decline in property and home prices. Over the last several horrific years for the home
builders, both companies have generated a significant 'deferred tax asset' on their balance sheets. PHM cannot avail itself of CTX’s
DTAs for five years after the transaction closes.
Using PHM management guidance that the company should generate positive operating cash flow next year, and taking into account
the ample pro-forma cash available to meet near-term debt maturities, we value the combined entities at 1.0x adjusted tangible
book value (tangible book - net cash use in 2009 (essentially debt service) + the combined DTAs – a PV adjustment to CTX’s TBV
(5 years at 10%)) which equals ~$14.50 / share. We further discount this result by 20% as a margin of safety to arrive at our FV of
$11.50/share.
We have no rating on the stock currently; however, should the stock decline below $9.50 or so, we would consider circling back to
this analysis for further action.

Good Luck!
AlphaPuppy

Has lots of land. Is blessed with an intelligent CEO who hasn't bought into that "land is worthless" crap. A TOL it's not, but as long as they hold on to the land, they should beat S&P hands down.

Watch stock prices jump as the housing now begins its' recovery

Looking for this market to start turning around in the next year. Well positioned companies will be able to ride this up.

BIG HOME BUILDER. WILL COME OUT ON TOP

Housing bottom coming within next 2-3 months... every housing stock will be zooming soon and I like Pulte!

rally picks

Just trying to pick the bottom :)

super strong balance sheet 1b in cash estimated to grow to 2b - when housing starts to rebound - watch this one, suggest jan 2010 $20 calls

Bullish based on performance last few days.

yop

Yeah, the P/E is awful and they may not soar soon, but lots of real capital (Del Web, etc.) positions them well. I sold this at a 50% loss and it's gone done another 30%. If I hadn't reinvested, I'd buy more now.

do you want to lose the shirt off your back?

This is a buy @ 1.10

Public builders will do very well as the private sector is going down hard. Many of the private builders have NO chance of recovery. With a lot of private builders going under, public builders will gain considerable market share. With a gain in market share means more profit for good homebuilders when homebuilders bottom. The strongest homebuilders will thrive once the storm has ended. I expect homebuilders to do very well against the S&P in the long run because of this. We care a lot more about cash right now than what their earnings are. It is a game of survival of the fittest, Based on the game theory, homebuilders must recover because it is a zero sum game as people need homes to live in therefore homebuilders must do well for the economy to do well. The odds are with you because americans just like you need a place to live in.

Home Builders are low now but they will be back. Banks cant afford for them to go away.

Turn around in homebuilders