Polaris Industries, Inc. (NYSE:PII)

CAPS Rating: 5 out of 5

Designs, engineers and manufactures all terrain vehicles, snowmobiles, and motorcycles and markets them, together with related replacement parts, garments and accessories through dealers and distributors located in the United States, Canada and Europe.

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Member Avatar FrankoJames (93.53) Submitted: 12/12/2014 7:39:09 AM : Outperform Start Price: $147.08 PII Score: -3.58

I think that the rebirth of the Indian brand for Polaris, with or without the potato jokes, will help fuel future growth of this company well into the future. I believe that Polaris will be able to outperform Mr. Market in the future so I am giving it an outperform rating.

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Member Avatar SCOTTRHUETTLCPA (67.12) Submitted: 9/26/2014 2:04:46 PM : Underperform Start Price: $150.65 PII Score: +6.02

failed breakouts uptrend under pressure

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Member Avatar IanERichards (84.83) Submitted: 6/4/2014 7:31:25 AM : Outperform Start Price: $125.12 PII Score: +11.27

Top class management

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Member Avatar phoenixseangels (35.22) Submitted: 5/28/2014 10:10:44 PM : Outperform Start Price: $129.58 PII Score: +6.84

building toys for grown ups by adreniline junkies.

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Member Avatar hba24 (94.36) Submitted: 5/28/2014 10:19:05 AM : Outperform Start Price: $129.44 PII Score: +6.64

Leader in off-road vehicles with a good track record of innovation.

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Member Avatar aymo0003 (< 20) Submitted: 5/1/2014 11:02:23 PM : Outperform Start Price: $134.55 PII Score: +0.58

Profitable growth

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Member Avatar DocRiggs (53.58) Submitted: 4/2/2014 2:21:46 PM : Outperform Start Price: $140.62 PII Score: -4.00

MF One

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Member Avatar BUbulldog (60.71) Submitted: 3/10/2014 10:06:07 AM : Outperform Start Price: $136.23 PII Score: -0.99

Snow = snowmobile sales. We had a lot of snow. That's as insightful as I will get.

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Member Avatar StewpotDrew (46.69) Submitted: 2/3/2014 12:07:13 AM : Outperform Start Price: $123.31 PII Score: +4.25

Business run well. Creative management. New products. I'd like to smoke a peace pipe with the Indian.

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Member Avatar benpop318 (< 20) Submitted: 1/30/2014 1:51:35 PM : Outperform Start Price: $126.35 PII Score: +2.28

The company has great product innovation and management.

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Member Avatar happygigging (< 20) Submitted: 1/22/2014 10:50:31 AM : Outperform Start Price: $136.16 PII Score: -3.30

More acquisitions in related products are increasing sales.

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Member Avatar bigstylianos (74.21) Submitted: 1/14/2014 7:12:59 AM : Outperform Start Price: $137.07 PII Score: -5.10

The new Indian motorcycle range is a winner for polaris

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Member Avatar gypsystem (53.83) Submitted: 1/11/2014 12:47:38 AM : Outperform Start Price: $141.69 PII Score: -7.73

Motorcycle division should do well. Looks like there's lots of room for growth.

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Member Avatar TMFPencils (99.81) Submitted: 12/26/2013 2:05:46 AM : Outperform Start Price: $141.15 PII Score: -7.55

There are a lot of things to like with Polaris. My brother and brother-in-law, both of whom are interested in motorcycles and vehicles of all sorts, have much respect for the Polaris brand. The brand power of Polaris is significant and gives the company a competitive edge over the long run.

Not to mention some other positive developments:

Improving margins, cash outweighs debt more than 3-to-1, and the business is a strong cash flow generator. An experienced and innovative management team just sweetens the deal.

Although the stock is gracing all-time highs, the fact is that Polaris has the financial performance and long-term prospects to back up a P/E ratio of 28.

The bottom line: this strikes me as a quality business with a respectable following and brand power, impressive financial performance, and an innovative management team. If that isn't a recipe for a long-term market outperform, I don't know what is.

In the short-term, anything can happen. I'm not one for timing the market (some of my worst CAPS picks can confirm this). In the long run, business fundamentals are what count. Polaris has a strong business that should lead to market-beating returns over the next 5+ years.

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Member Avatar mark1969ABC (77.10) Submitted: 12/23/2013 10:39:05 PM : Outperform Start Price: $141.45 PII Score: -8.28

growth company

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Member Avatar GVFool15 (71.41) Submitted: 12/21/2013 1:52:45 AM : Outperform Start Price: $140.13 PII Score: -7.37

Top innovator in the off road vehicle market. Hold for 5+ years!

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Member Avatar investorpoet2 (93.48) Submitted: 12/6/2013 10:17:46 AM : Outperform Start Price: $134.78 PII Score: -4.37

Sales have grown by over 12% over the past 5 years. Net income has grown by over 22% during the past five years. Return on equity has been over 40% for the past five years and return on capital has been over 30% for the past five years. The company has performed very well, and the economy is just getting going.

Looking ahead, analysts project EPS growth of almost 17% for the next five years. Given their returns previously, this may be conservative. All their brands are growing faster than this except for their motorcycles, and those have been redesigned and have gotten good reviews.

Starting with this year's projected EPS of $5.39/share and growing earnings by 16% gets $24/share in earnings in 10 years. Assuming a P/E of 32, shares would be worth $760 or so. Discounted back at 15% gets me an intrinsic value of $190. At around $136 today, I'm getting a 28% discount. Not a bad deal. This should outperform the market for years.

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Member Avatar mfoolid (75.31) Submitted: 11/29/2013 12:15:06 PM : Outperform Start Price: $132.27 PII Score: -1.59

Eamon and family pick for 11/13

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Member Avatar mazske (57.79) Submitted: 11/20/2013 11:54:57 PM : Outperform Start Price: $129.62 PII Score: -0.95

Great leadership. Indian motorcycles will become more popular than Harley's in a decade or so.

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Member Avatar grankh (75.41) Submitted: 10/20/2013 2:04:34 AM : Outperform Start Price: $130.13 PII Score: -6.52

This is another of my real-life holdings. One of my investment clubs also bought the stock, at my recommendation. So I hold shares in my personal account and in one of my investment club accounts.

Sales have grown almost 24% per year since 2009, and EPS has grown over 37% per year during that time. The profit margin has grown in each year since 2008. The earned-on-equity has been about 40% or more since 2006, so makes a decent return on average. The debt has been falling since 2008, so that is a good trend. The P/E is high. Higher than it has been in the past 5 years and double the average P/E during that time. The PEG ratio is reasonable, considering the historic growth rates. The stock pays a reasonable dividend, yielding almost 3%, and has raised the dividend in each of the past 5 years.

Assuming slower growth, I am expecting this stock to grow 50% over the next 5 years, to about $200 a share. With the dividend, that would give me a rate of return of about 10%. However, if the stock keeps growing at the rate it has over the past few years, and keeps increasing its dividend, then I could earn much more than that 10% a year, which is why I bought the stock in the first place, and bought it for less than it is now trading at. It is the expectation that growth will not slow as much as I based my purchase price on that I will hold this stock. If growth does slow down to below my expectations, then that would change my thesis on which I based my purchase and would force me to reevaluate my purchase. We'll have to wait and see how this trade turns out.

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