+ Watch POOL
on My Watchlist
The Company is a wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment and related leisure products.
I highly doubt EPS will grow fast enough to justify the current valuation. I expect annualized returns from this equity to be very, very low, if not negative, over the next 3-5 years or so.
With this company larger than it's next competitor by a factor of 50!, I say this will certainly outperform the market over the next 2-4 years!
Pool dominates its industry: With nearly $2 billion in revenues in 2012, it is as large as its top 53 competitors combined. That gives it pricing power.
For reference point and to allow for comments by others. As of the end of March, 2013.ROE 28.86%%Trailing PE 30.14PB 8.50Div yield 1.50%
New swimmging pool starts depend on lower middle class moving to upper middle to afford pools. Maintenace only really requires chlorine, a loss leader even at groceries stores. New Pools require equity and refiancing. Old pool finishes require redo in 5-7 years , new quartz finish last up to 15 years. High Margin electronic controls are strickly optional.Look at their debt to equity after 40 years. No more mom & pops to take over. Trouble with laws and operations in Foregin Countires see their ftc reports. Looming FTC investagation per their FTC reports, Slow growth, who is moving up in satutus to get a new pool. Hard even to invest in energy saving pumps. Looks like pure fiction to me.
Solid dividend (2.5%) with a decent P/E Ratio (< 20). This used to be THE growth stock. While the company won't have explosive future growth like they did in the past, they've hit the bottom of the pool market and can grow income substantially over the next 5 years without expanding costs much (aka using current personnel and sales centers).
pool is heavily overpriced for a company that is losingrevenue by the "poolfull". Now that summer is over, look for a fall meltdown. I wouldn't be surprised if Pool's stock value is cut in half between third and fourth quarter earningreports. GET OUT OF THE POOL, YOU FOOL!
Cash flow stinks; too much long term debt; stock price run-up since March will not be sustained.
This one easily gets a red thumb. Three of their four largest markets are in the bubble states of California, Florida, and Arizona. Most new pool construction (where POOL derives 20% of their sales) is financed off of home equity. In the bubble states, even if customers could qualify for a loan, there is no equity left in real estate purchased during the past few years. For example, in Florida, pool construction has dropped by more than 50% in the past year. If you believe the real estate market will only get worse, then new poolconstruction will drop further. On the pool maintenance side, which is 80% of their revenue, POOL had a 2Q decline of 6% overall, but a 19% decline in Arizona. As we head into a recession, I believe numbers more like down 19% will be the norm.On the balance sheet, they have a significant amount of debt, much of which is floating rate, which will affect their bottom line into the future. For a stock trading at an earnings premium to the market and which will experience no earnings growth on '08 or '09 (the company's guidance), it seems quite pricey. There is a lot of history here: if you bought at the IPO in 1995 and held until 2006, you would have had a 50-bagger. I think some believe that that will return, but in our current economic enviroment, expenditure on pool maintenance would seem to be at the bottom of the priority for maintaining a family and property.If you like their management and their business, wait for the housing market to turn around in the key markets, Until then, I see a price decline to $11.50 by March.
i feel this is a commodity on the rich, and should not be affected in this time of financial difficulties are nation is facing. i further believe that the current birth rate of people's within the US willl continue to rise and in doing so will produce more rich and mid class people whom can buy pools and maitain pools. this rise in population will force people to build more hotels and resorts and recreation pools to accommodate this rise in population!
Lol, looses 7c/share and it jumps 7%... Good investing strategy...
WHo's going to put in a pool now?
housing outlook has negatively impacted pool installations
Good price, history of increasing sales and profits
Run away with your tail tucked between your legs. As mentioned previously, Pool Corp's revenues are tied directly to the housing boom and as the drought of new home purchases digs into new record low territory and the credit crunch begins to hit, luxury items like pools will be the first to go. POOL slashed its yearly earnings by 20% in both 2007 and 2008 and I HIGHLY doubt we've seen the last of these dwongrades. Technically we've seen a major rollover in the chart and other than a short oversold bounce, theres nothing on the long-term chart keeping this out of the teens. NeroSagetrade
I liked FoolonParade comments, which hits on my dislike of the housing market. This is a total housing play. This POOL has a crack in it. Poor debt management and loss of revenues.
I call pool the silent sinker. This one will probably trade in the single digits within a year and may never make a headline. Housing down=pools down. It is that simple. Even idiots like me figured that one out.
The housing market will surge again. We americans love our pools. No brainer.
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