Pool Corp (POOL)

akre

pool is heavily overpriced for a company that is losing

revenue by the "poolfull". Now that summer is over, look

for a fall meltdown. I wouldn't be surprised if Pool's stock value is cut in half between third and fourth quarter earning
reports. GET OUT OF THE POOL, YOU FOOL!

Cash flow stinks; too much long term debt; stock price run-up since March will not be sustained.

This one easily gets a red thumb. Three of their four largest markets are in the bubble states of California, Florida, and Arizona. Most new pool construction (where POOL derives 20% of their sales) is financed off of home equity. In the bubble states, even if customers could qualify for a loan, there is no equity left in real estate purchased during the past few years. For example, in Florida, pool construction has dropped by more than 50% in the past year. If you believe the real estate market will only get worse, then new poolconstruction will drop further.

On the pool maintenance side, which is 80% of their revenue, POOL had a 2Q decline of 6% overall, but a 19% decline in Arizona. As we head into a recession, I believe numbers more like down 19% will be the norm.

On the balance sheet, they have a significant amount of debt, much of which is floating rate, which will affect their bottom line into the future. For a stock trading at an earnings premium to the market and which will experience no earnings growth on '08 or '09 (the company's guidance), it seems quite pricey. There is a lot of history here: if you bought at the IPO in 1995 and held until 2006, you would have had a 50-bagger. I think some believe that that will return, but in our current economic enviroment, expenditure on pool maintenance would seem to be at the bottom of the priority for maintaining a family and property.

If you like their management and their business, wait for the housing market to turn around in the key markets, Until then, I see a price decline to $11.50 by March.

i feel this is a commodity on the rich, and should not be affected in this time of financial difficulties are nation is facing. i further believe that the current birth rate of people's within the US willl continue to rise and in doing so will produce more rich and mid class people whom can buy pools and maitain pools. this rise in population will force people to build more hotels and resorts and recreation pools to accommodate this rise in population!

Lol, looses 7c/share and it jumps 7%... Good investing strategy...

WHo's going to put in a pool now?

housing outlook has negatively impacted pool installations

Good price, history of increasing sales and profits

Run away with your tail tucked between your legs. As mentioned previously, Pool Corp's revenues are tied directly to the housing boom and as the drought of new home purchases digs into new record low territory and the credit crunch begins to hit, luxury items like pools will be the first to go. POOL slashed its yearly earnings by 20% in both 2007 and 2008 and I HIGHLY doubt we've seen the last of these dwongrades. Technically we've seen a major rollover in the chart and other than a short oversold bounce, theres nothing on the long-term chart keeping this out of the teens.

Nero

Sagetrade

I liked FoolonParade comments, which hits on my dislike of the housing market. This is a total housing play. This POOL has a crack in it. Poor debt management and loss of revenues.

I call pool the silent sinker. This one will probably trade in the single digits within a year and may never make a headline. Housing down=pools down. It is that simple. Even idiots like me figured that one out.

The housing market will surge again. We americans love our pools. No brainer.

Largest and best managed pool company in the world

This stock is currently depressed. With additional aquisitions and development of their markets, I believe mid level double digit gains are in their future.

Growth of 15% in Revenues and greater for profits. In a growth industry (recreational) and looks to contine the same growth Path of past five years.

down due to housing falling and 4th quarter operting loss. Annual operating income rising yoy plus dividend. No real competition so will come back. People like their pools.

Spring is coming soon, and everyone needs to get their pools in shape!

Great play for a 2-4 year hold.
Oversold condition. Technicals improving. Fundamentals have always been good.
Inst. Ownership ~ strong hands.