Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (POT)

harvest time is over with many crops to sell to consumers..

jbk - 125

Mad Money - Cramer Pick

Food play

1. C-H-I-N-A
2. Falling USD

Excellent cash position, industry will recover strongly in the next three to four quarters. Still far from all time highs.

Long-term agricultural play. Food is the ultimate commodity that it not optional.

The demand for Potash is rising and will continue to rise due to its role in fertilizer, therefore they should see increased profits in the long term

Company is laying off, Valuation is already through the roof.

Fertilizer was at an all time high. WAS! Balance sheet looks good. But don't count on making money on this unless your betting it's going down!

Outperform due to its place in its industry.

low relative PE, good star & 2010 earnigs. Bottom fishing. 10/19

Downthumb. Good cash flow. Low payout. High cap-ex. 22% sales growth 5 year avg. Nominal quick ratio. Nominal to high debt ratio. Plunging commodity prices.

The outlook for fertilizer markets is optimistic for 2010 and beyond, according to the International Fertilizer Industry Association's "Fertilizer Outlook 2009-2013" (http://www.fertilizer.org/ifacontent/download/22001/315598/version/6/file/2009_shanghai_ifa_summary.pdf)

Fertilizer markets took a beating in 2009 as farmers cut back and postponed purchases of fertilizers as long as possible. Worldwide, consumption of all fertilizers was down 5.1% in 2008/09, but demand is expected to recover and grow next year by 3.6%, with growth strongest in Asia, Europe, and North America. Potash was especially hard-hit because it is a nutrient that can be deferred more easily than nitrogen or potassium without having large immediate impacts on crop yields, so global potash consumption was down 14.4% but is expected to grow by 4.1% in 2009/10.

Currently there is a surplus of potash on the market and supply will exceed demand for the foreseeable future and new supplies of potash are expected to be developed in the next few years, expanding supply faster than demand which might drive down prices and profitability. These impacts may become visible from about 2012 onwards.

So in summary, I think the outlook for POT is for a good recovery next year and good prospects for the next two or three years, but if supply continues to exceed demand there might be problems in the longer term beyond the next three years.

Cramers Pick

Agriculture stocks have continued to take a beating while much of the market has recovered. It may continue to be under short-term pressure, but I'll be buying here and again on additional price drops. Demand may not pick up until next Spring, but it's still a great time to buy. I believe many will perform well over the long haul but my favorites are POT and MON.

This company's dominance in their market gives them a sizable moat and they are well positioned for the continued global recovery.

Identified on Fundamental Rule of Thumb Screen. CAPShot rating is 9/12.

recovery means more food productions potash /(pot) supplies required production output

-Nothing grows without K
-Planet is hungry of potash
-The ressurce is limited