Paratek Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:PRTK)

CAPS Rating: 5 out of 5

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Top PRTK Bull/Bear Pitches

The best Bull and Bear pitches based on recency and number of recommendations.

zzlangerhans (99.77)
Submitted January 29, 2015

Paratek doesn't have much to do with the shell of Transcept, who brought them to the public realm with a reverse merger three months ago. Since then the stock has undergone a reverse split and a name change, and there's little sign of Transcept's… More

NHWeston (42.16)
Submitted July 24, 2012

I'm not sure exactly what is wrong with this company. They have a number of good products but can't seem to make a market and are bleeding cash. Under other circumstances, you might see them as buy-out bait, but something just pushes the big boys… More

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Recent Community Commentary

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Member Avatar MichaelSeeleyCPA (< 20) Submitted: 1/20/2017 11:31:13 AM : Outperform Start Price: $14.70 PRTK Score: +54.15

In this article we merely seek to use Paratek Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (PRTK) to illustrate (in real time) the benefits of including special situations within a broader portfolio as one means of hedging systematic/market risk and achieving absolute portfolio returns.

Discovering an Opportunity

How did we discover PRTK? Well, the truth is, we didn’t. Although we always seek to follow the great investors’ investing principles, sometimes we literally follow them into stocks, by piggy-backing on their investments. This blatant and shameless means of investment plagiarism isn’t (always) intentional, but when we happen across a situation that looks attractive, only to find out that one or more great investors are already there, and have already laid down much of the investment groundwork for us, we tend to pay particular attention. As Warren Buffett often repeated of his Control situations “Everything else being equal, I would much rather let others do the work.” Of course, we are being cheeky because we always have to do our own work. Sometimes, that work is just made easier when a pathway for our efforts has already been paved for us. [In addition, we are more than happy for the great investors to piggy-back off our hard work and analysis and the fact that none have yet taken us up on our offer does not discourage us at all.]

For reasons we won’t go into here (but which involve our research into potential spinoff investments converging, quite surprisingly, with the due diligence we were conducting into a possible birthday present for one or our significant others who is a native speaker of a foreign language), we found ourselves visiting the website of Roumell Asset Management (RAM) found here where we reviewed Jim Roumell’s 4th Quarter 2014 Report, found here , in which Paratek was highlighted as one of RAM’s Top Three Purchases for that particular quarter. If the Reader wishes to discover how Jim Roumell discovered Paratek, and gain further appreciation of the benefits sharing good company in an investment can bring, the above links contain the story. We found it reassuring to know, that if the worst case scenario were to materialize, as minority shareholders we may benefit from effectual institutions.

Several items struck us as important when we began reviewing Mr. Roumell’s publicly available analysis into PRTK:

First, any time one can follow Jim Roumell and Seth Klarman into an investment thesis, and can do so potentially at a similar or even lower average cost , and can further do so years after the fact when the investment thesis has become even more compelling (given the subsequent time lapse to maturity), and has been incrementally and significantly de-risked from the levels where even the investors we seek to emulate entered; well, that strikes us as a compelling potential opportunity, and is certainly one worth analyzing.

Second, like Seth Klarman, Jim Roumell has the reputation of a deep-value, balance-sheet focused investment analyst, and a cautious portfolio manager that most often invests in (relatively) safe, Benjamin Graham cigar butt-type stocks; so it (initially) surprised us to find him advocating shares in a late-stage, bio-pharmaceutical company. This alone was worth a look.

Third, we read (and watched) everything we could that Mr. Roumell and others had posted on the Company, and we commenced independently confirming as much of what was published about the business, its competitors, the industry, and the FDA approval process as we could find readily available. In every instance where confirmation was possible, Mr. Roumell’s analysis checked out, from market demand, to average probabilities of successful Phase 3 trials for various indications, to the average probabilities of successfully navigating the FDA approval process, to comparables yielded by the take-outs of recent competitors’ antibiotics, to the transparency and competence of Management.

In short, we really liked what we saw in the story, namely: the assets, Management, the investment thesis, and the risk/reward profile. So let’s take a look.

Brief Summary Investment Thesis

The Company

Paratek Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is in late-stage development for a broad-spectrum, bacterial-resistant, effective, well-tolerated, thus-far-safe, antibiotic drug (Omadacycline), available in both IV-to-oral, and oral-only forms. [These are the characteristics for a commercially successful blockbuster antibiotic; meaning these are indicative of commercially successful blockbuster antibiotics currently on the market. Please refer to Slide #s 25, 43, 45, and 47 of the “Paratek Corporate Presentation 1-9-17”, available here, for example.] At last report the Company had over $100M of net cash, an Enterprise Value of $250M, and a Market Capitalization of roughly $350M with shares trading up to nearly $16. We will not review the Company’s history here, but it is worth noting that $400M+ has already been invested in the drugs’ development, so the present time is actually a better opportunity to initiate an investment than has generally existed previously.

[Catalysts - Please refer to Slide #s 39 of the Paratek Corporate Presentation 1-9-17, available here.]

Catalyst(s) - Phase 3 Trials Underway: Six Months to Completion

If one of the two Phase 3 registration trials currently underway - in this case, Oral-only for a skin indication (ABSSSI) - is successful, and is paired with the already successful Phase 3 trial (IV-to-Oral, ABSSSI); the drug could be worth as much as $700M-$800M , more or less.

If the second of the Phase 3 registration trials (CABP) currently underway is successful, and is paired with the previously successful Phase 3 trial (IV-to-Oral, ABSSSI); the drug could quickly be worth perhaps $1B (at the low end) to as much as $1.5B (at perhaps the mid-point) .

The results of the CABP registration trial are anticipated in Q2 2017, and the results of the Oral-only, ABSSSI trial are anticipated in mid-2017 (perhaps as early as Q2 2017); so our time-frame for this portion of the special situation is approximately six months.

Catalyst - New Drug Application (NDA) Submission: Approximately Twelve Months from Here

If/when another successful Phase 3 trial is in hand; Paratek can begin drafting the NDA, which should take 6-8 months, as it can involve the submission of over 2 million pages of data. At least one of these trials must be successful in order for Paratek to submit a new drug application (NDA) with the FDA. The existing ABSSSI IV-to-Oral top-line results, on its own, are not sufficient for drug approval. Under the agreement with the FDA, two successful Phase 3 trials are required. This may be comprised of two successful ABSSSI trials (IV-to-Oral and Oral-only) or the existing ABSSSI study (IV-to-Oral) and a successful CABP trial. The various possible combinations will impact the value considerably.

Catalyst - Prospects for Additional Capital Raise/Monetization: Six-to-Twelve Months Out

Paratek has enough cash on-hand to complete the Phase 3 trials it is undertaking (each of which requires approximately $30M) and to bring it through mid-2017, but not enough for commercialization. It is important to note, that at this stage (i.e. drafting the NDA post-successful Phase 3 registration trials), Paratek will require additional capital for development and commercialization. The good news is, that if/when this stage arrives (and we believe this to be probable, as discussed in Part III below), the share price should be much higher, and the opportunities for monetization should be both broader and more numerous. We would not be opposed to an additional capital raise at such a stage, if the share issue price is high enough, but we may prefer that Management first look at monetizing its secondary asset, the non-U.S. rights to Sarecycline, its acne drug in development with Allergan PLC (AGN) via either a sell or licensing arrangement. In addition, there are bound to be opportunities at this stage to either license the non-U.S. development and marketing rights to Omadacycline, or to be outright acquired; though the value assigned at such a stage would likely fall short of the value that may be obtained subsequent to drug approval.

Catalyst - FDA Approval: Eighteen-to-Twenty-Four Months Out

If an NDA is submitted to the FDA by the first half of 2018, and if Omadacycline receives FDA approval in the second half of 2018, the Company is likely to be worth anywhere between $1B and $2B (that is an estimate), and we believe the value could settle in at the top-half of this range if both the Phase 3 CABP trial and the ABSSSI Oral-only trial is successful. The time-frame for this is believed to be 18-24 months, given the FDA fast-track status which results in a six-to-eight month response time from the filing of the NDA.

Potential Catalysts - Speculative Prospects

If the Company is acquired, or announces strategic partnerships or licensing arrangements with a larger pharmaceutical company, the time-frames for the maturity of our special situation investment may be pulled forward, and although such a possibility may meet Benjamin Graham’s broad definition of a special situation, it does not meet his narrow definition, so we will set that eventuality aside for the time being. Suffice it to say, we very often substantially underestimate the potential returns on special situation investments, but when these pleasant surprises occur, we take them in stride.

Risks: Ongoing

Lastly, and this is the most important part, if any or all of the above fail to occur (e.g. a second Phase 3 trial isn’t successful, the NDA is rejected by the FDA, or serious adverse events (e.g. safety concerns or restrictive labeling restrictions, etc.) were to arise, the Company’s share value would decline drastically. Although we believe there is far more than $15 of value existing currently, there is always a risk of a serious adverse event, no matter how small. The

Recs

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Member Avatar CMFAtlas (30.35) Submitted: 3/26/2015 12:17:53 PM : Outperform Start Price: $31.11 PRTK Score: -42.04

Similar to TTPH but at an earlier stage. Has good data and similar IV/oral formulation.

Recs

0
Member Avatar marsuculix (45.15) Submitted: 3/4/2015 9:18:44 AM : Outperform Start Price: $29.55 PRTK Score: -35.71

I love this company. It possesses two interesting assets - both of them tetracycline antibiotics: omadacyline and saracycline...

Leaderboard

Find the members with the highest scoring picks in PRTK.

Score Leader

PrestonCheek

PrestonCheek (31.73) Score: +171.63

The Score Leader is the player with the highest score across all their picks in PRTK.

Top
Pick
Member Name Member
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
Score Commentary
PrestonCheek 31.73 12/14/2009 Underperform 5Y $51.97 -54.30% +117.33% +171.63 0 Comment
empreinte 34.88 11/25/2011 Underperform 3M $51.26 -53.66% +108.91% +162.57 0 Comment
IvegotCanines 89.01 10/17/2011 Underperform 3Y $53.17 -55.33% +100.80% +156.13 0 Comment
HedgeFund007 92.01 10/27/2011 Underperform 5Y $58.06 -59.09% +91.56% +150.66 0 Comment
YurBoyG 47.08 11/21/2011 Underperform 3W $46.01 -48.38% +102.27% +150.65 0 Comment
Vermichelle < 20 9/15/2011 Underperform 3W $46.58 -49.01% +101.07% +150.08 0 Comment
Oddodd 59.31 9/15/2011 Underperform 1Y $45.94 -48.30% +101.28% +149.58 0 Comment
cecamadocv4 99.94 9/15/2011 Underperform 5Y $43.39 -45.26% +102.19% +147.45 0 Comment
cvdynasty2 98.76 9/15/2011 Underperform 5Y $43.39 -45.26% +101.78% +147.04 0 Comment
RipeStocksFool 54.34 11/16/2011 Underperform 3M $45.66 -47.98% +94.08% +142.06 0 Comment

Wall Street

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Player Name Player
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
S&P
Gain
Score End Date Commentary
TrackCowenandCo 87.72 5/15/2012 Outperform NS $57.85 -58.94% +81.41% -140.36 0 Comment
TrackUltraLong 20.50 11/2/2011 Underperform NS $61.82 -61.58% +96.34% +157.92 1 Comment
trackmlvcapital < 20 7/18/2011 Outperform NS $33.32 -28.72% +85.48% -114.20 0 Comment
TrackZacks < 20 8/10/2009 Outperform 3M $103.44 -12.18% +8.41% -20.59 7/13/2010 @ $90.84 1 Comment

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