Qlik Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:QLIK)

# 3 - CACI - "The Forbes Fast Tech 25: Our Annual List Of Growth Kings" 5/02/2012

forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/05/02/the-forbes-fast-tech-25-our-annual-list-of-growth-kings/2/

The entire "List Of Growth Kings" (in a descending pace of growth)

1 LNKD caps.fool.com/Ticker/LNKD.aspx Social Networking
2 AAPL caps.fool.com/Ticker/AAPL.aspx Computer Hardware/Software
3 QLIK caps.fool.com/Ticker/QLIK.aspx Business Analytics Software
4 ATHN caps.fool.com/Ticker/ATHN.aspx Cloud-based Healthcare Services
5 EQIX caps.fool.com/Ticker/EQIX.aspx Data Center Services
6 EBIX caps.fool.com/Ticker/EBIX.aspx Software/E-commerce Services
7 ARUN caps.fool.com/Ticker/ARUN.aspx Wireless Equipment
8 RVBD caps.fool.com/Ticker/RVBD.aspx Networking Equipment
9 CTSH caps.fool.com/Ticker/CTSH.aspx Computer Programming Services
10 SFLY caps.fool.com/Ticker/SFLY.aspx Online Digital Photo Services
11 FIRE caps.fool.com/Ticker/FIRE.aspx Security Systems Services
12 SWI caps.fool.com/Ticker/SWI.aspx IT Management Software
13 SREV caps.fool.com/Ticker/SREV.aspx Revenue Management Software
14 SNCR caps.fool.com/Ticker/SNCR.aspx Transaction Management Systems
15 ACOM caps.fool.com/Ticker/ACOM.aspx Online Genealogy Services
16 FTNT caps.fool.com/Ticker/FTNT.aspx Security Systems Services
17 PEGA caps.fool.com/Ticker/PEGA.aspx Business Management Software
18 RAX caps.fool.com/Ticker/RAX.aspx Internet Software/Services
19 QSII caps.fool.com/Ticker/QSII.aspx Healthcare Software
20 EGOV caps.fool.com/Ticker/EGOV.aspx Information Retrieval Services
21 RHT caps.fool.com/Ticker/RHT.aspx Open Source Software
22 GPN caps.fool.com/Ticker/GPN.aspx Electronic Payment Services
23 CVLT caps.fool.com/Ticker/CVLT.aspx Systems Software
24 CACI caps.fool.com/Ticker/CACI.aspx Government Technology Services
25 VRSN caps.fool.com/Ticker/VRSN.aspx Internet Software/Services

Radiance

Extreme overvalued EVS

ttm earnings too low - think 4Q estimate optimistic, and compnay only breaks even rest of year.

OK, I'm going to go wayyy out on a limb here; this one is going down. #1. Earnings over time have declined, even sales have grown nicely. Is it coincidence that the nost profitable year was its first on the market? #2. It's just too expensive, and even at the current top line growth rate, it'll take a long time to get real. #3. Qlik has now been on the market for two years. The underwriters are off the hook, saying nothing but nice things about their offering. Nobody can sue them now for being the lyin' cheatin' SOBs that they are. #4. Long term, Qlik has a bright enough future, but it needs to come down to earth. "X Company Announces Record Sales" without the commensurate earnings growth can not go on for long. I'm betting (short term) that the honeymoon is over. On the other hand, I won't be surprised if it continues to float at it's current insane valuation...but, betcha not.

Qlik Tech has a niche product that is gaining popularity among larger organizations.

Great platform for what it does.

I like Tim's theme from SXSW of making sense of data: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/03/15/a-massive-investment-opportunity-youre-overlooking.aspx. TDC has worked out nicely. TIBX in the same spirit. Long QLIK 5+ years.

Business Intelligence should become more of a value add for companies increasing Qlik 's Market and by correlation their revenue ceteris parabis

Rule Breaker in the making.

There are currently 280 QLIK shares in my "fund" with break-even of around 23.81 USD.
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/fund-trades/678775.

Here is a recent article from Seeking Alpha which may burst some bubbles of this stock's future.

Stock will under perform until the economy improves at which time a recovery will begin.

Qlik Technologies is a Swedish-based business intelligience (BI) company. Its main product is Qlik View, a streamlined BI program that uses in-memory processing, which does not require the expensive infrastructure the online analytical processing (OLAP) based programs used by the majority of the BI industry. Qlik View is both cheaper and easier to use for potential customers than its OLAP competitors, and this ease-of-use widens the audience for the BI industry as a whole. Also, Qlik View has recently been modified for the mobile interface and is available for tablets around the world.

My biggest fear, the media's biggest fear, and I imagine many of its potential investor's fear, is that QLIK may be horrifyingly overpriced. Qlik is trading at a outrageous 278.10 to 809.21 P/E depending on where you look (278.1 on the Fool and Seeking Alpha, 516.6 on Yahoo Finance, and 809.21 on Google Finance) Using the ttm earnings reports on the Fool's own site I got an EPS (ttm) of 3.25 cents a share and a P/E of 794.8. Frankly either way I find this stat to be a little overwhelming to say the least, and I'm really not sure where the 278.1 came from. The recent market pullback has made the pricing slightly more attractive, although I hesitate to use the words attractive and a triple digit P/E ratio in the same paragraph. Things need to be put into perspective if we are to understand this sky-high valuation.

First, and foremost, Qlik Tech is a relatively small company competing against some of the biggest names in tech: IBM, Microsoft, and Oracle, and other smaller companies with similar ideas: MicroStrategy and Datawatch. While the BI industry is burgeoning, it is important for QLIK to gobble up as much market share as it can as fast as it can to establish a dominant position in mobile and in-memory processing BI. Therefore, management is doing exactly what it should be doing: aggressively upping sales spending and hiring hundreds of new sales employees. As a result, profit margins have fallen, the P/E has shot through the roof, the company has increased its 2011 revenue forecasts three times, revenue for the most recent quarter jumped 45% from last year (before they were spending so much on sales), and the size of the customer base has increased 40%.

Second, I have heard it that the company likes to report their big earnings in Q4 and keep the other three quarters more or less break even. Either way, earnings last quarter went above and beyond analyst forecasts; revenue growth in particular was outstanding, up 45% from last year.

Third, Qlik has created a loyal customer base by continuous devotion to providing its customers the best possible service at the best possible value with Qlik View. Mitsubishi's Electric Cooling and Heating Systems said that its investment in Qlik View paid for itself in two months, and Qlik Tech claims an average ROI of 186% for the product. At 21,000 customers and growing, QLIK's heavy sales spending is paying off huge. In addition, each new and old customer Qlik has is one less for its competitors; with each customer the company is building a growing moat around its services.

Also important is the fact that the company has no debt, as of the start of Q2 2011 Qlik had paid off the last of its debt. Therefore, low earnings are not cause to worry that Qlik won't be able to pay off its creditors and go bankrupt.

In conclusion, Qlik Technologies has a great product that revolutionizes an old but still growing industry, and its growth potential justifies a deceptively high P/E caused by all the right management activities and a cyclical earnings schedule. Once the BI market has been saturated and Qlik Tech has grown all it can grow, then the company can lower it sales spending, up its profit margin, and trade at a much lower P/E ratio. However, the current high valuation doesn't show Qlik View isn't bringing in enough money, the company is in trouble, or its a bad product that customers hate. In fact, the exact opposite is true in each of those cases. Given the above, I would rate QLIK a strong buy, especially at recent prices with the market so topsy turvy.

strong growth, had a nice pull back recently.

Strong product, lots of customers. low cross sell leading to huge upside potential.

'Tis a good stock to own!

Technical Pullback Likely

QLIK outperforms because of its niche. Management is isn't closing any doors or burning any bridges. They are inserting themselves where other don't dare including medicine. End user ease of use, jumping on the "cloud," and rock solid integration into existing infrastructure are what every company needs when they look ahead and decide what is required to gain or maintain an edge.