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My yearbook brings a lot in the wedding, but the results aren't impressive : $ 12.8 million losses for $ 11.9 million revenue in the full year 2011!
As they have only $ 8.3 million of cash, less than 3 quaters ahead, they could be in the wall ! Already overevaluated, if they had no losses, as only $ 11.0 million of net assets, mean only $ 0.32 of net asset/share.The removing to NEW HOPE shouldn't be enough to change the destiny of QUEPASA, and if the financial officer, Jin BUGDEN, leaves the boat QUEPASA as of March 2, have to think that I'not the only one to think that !
Recs
QPSA has struggles for the past few weeks but with the MY YEARBOOK merger just a tew days away look for a strong rally. If Europe and China get going, the rebound may be stronger.
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This stock is a no brainer.
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Quepasa Corp gets some serious mood swings and I've played it up and down. I find playing it up if I can anticipate a bottom is safer. While I don't think much of Quepasa from it's financial metrics or it's "story" of being the Latin Facebook, it's definitely a high beta stock favored by speculators who just read the "growth story". I really don't think Quepasa is sticky enough for growth. The games they are adding may help. Their recognition by Facebook may help. The investment thesis so far has been that it's the only publically traded social media site, so get in early. With LinkedIn and others hitting the market, the story isn't as attractive as it once was. Each month they give their membership increases and game downloads and people get impressed. I think the company has a chance, but the valuation is WAY to high to be betting on this one. Even after it's dive to $5 it's $85 Million market cap is hugely swollen at this growth rate. Book value is $0.82 and P/B is 7.4 while revenue dropped QoQ and is half of expenses. Despite a share issue last quarter, the float is still relatively small. Quepas was added to the Russell last month giving it a little more "respect"/coverage.
Quepasa did score a win with the purchase of myYearbook, which appears to be a profitable company that should blend in well.
So here's a negative pitch on an upthumb...confused.....technical/social economical/speculation equity practicing....not a long term hold, but it could double from here or it could half....I suspect right now it has a better chance of a double, but that's a high beta bet with some speculation that speculators are going to continue to play this one......
Recs
Quepasa on its own was an overpriced short. Now with myFacebook it's an underpriced social media/social gaming play.
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Extremely High Price for Sales
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If the IPO of renren.com (the Chinese equivalent) is successful it should help pull other social media. Additionally, without a Facebook or Twitter IPO in the making shareholders will want a piece of the social media action.
Recs
QPSA is the only pure media play like Facebook that sells on an exchange. It has been beaten down to a loss of 2/3 of it's high. Low volume selling. Positively low risk entry as of 3/30/11. Recommend strong buy for a possible 2 bagger.
Recs
Some might be bearish because of the way QPSA counts users (inactive users also counted)...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/240276-quepasa-is-no-facebook?source=qp_article
therefore inflating the user base.
On the other hand, QPSA is in growth mode (both number of users and monetization/ad initiatives) in Latin countries while Facebook is mature worldwide.
Recs
I guess I would start by saying why don't Shorts mention the game initiative? Has he never heard of Zynga? One successful game and the traffic goes Parabolic.
Just because MySpace has awful management and screwed up there deal, does that mean John Abbott who has executed beautifully is getting ready to screw up
Can the guy not read a financial statement and realize the 4 million loss is a Non-cash expense of options.
A director provided 90Plus Percent of the revenue< damn right, and he saw over 6 million hits on the political campaign, and over 3-4 times the hits on the other campaigns than projected. I guess this Billionaire- is going to say Wow that was really successful I guess we won't do anymore of those campaigns. Do I need to keep going, Oh I forgot to mention that Sony signed up to sell DSM campaigns and the TechFront acquisition brought the Batista Family to the Quepasa family, Never a bad deal to have the 8th wealthiest guy in the World involved with your company. Let them get short Millions of shares and when John is at the DB conference in 13 days and the Wedbush conference in march they can order some body bags to carry them out. And the AOL deal, that was set up in the go go internet days and they barely survived as a company
Recs
Fast growth in subscribers is likely to continue as more and more users seek out social media. The recent purchase of a social gaming company should provide an additional avenue to make money from this user base.
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Social media is not a fad
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Huge market. Well done site. Ads are increasing
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Time to walk this garbage down from $10.
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