Royal Dutch Shell CL A (RDS-A)

Voser is ready to start kicking butt and taking names. I like the shake up of the senior execs and the move to a leaner, quicker and cost effective structure. Van der Veer did a great job in stabilizing the company and allowing Shell to regain its respect.

I believe Shell is now focused and prepared to deliver results.

Those prices of slick _ _ _ _ will go back up and when they do this one looks ready to slide the stick.

With increased instability and costs of oil, RDS will continue to have great returns and growth. In addition, a lot of new resources will be coming online in the 4-8 year timeframe.

Oil and yield

Despite the surge in spending on alternative energy, our dependence on oil will not go away for at least the next few decades. Oil demand worldwide is increasing. Royal Dutch Shell has a new process for extracting oil from oil shale of which the US has roughly 2 trillion barrels of which between 800 billion and 1.2 trillion are recoverable. Royal Dutch Shell is currently testing the process in the oil shale fields in the midwest. If the process is approved by the government the US could become the next Middle East.

The stock has been oversold recently which should provide immediate gains. Shell has great exploration and production profitablity and is well positioned to exploit new sources of energy, which should make them a good long term investment as well.

Royal Dutch Shell is trading at a 12% discount to the Majors. XOM trades at ~11 times Earnings and RDS-A trades at ~9 times. Reserve replacement has/is RDS-A major problem .... but they have promised they will solve it. They are betting Billions and Billions on some non conventional projects. RDS-A is a European company and they do not do any restructurings fast, but they are moving this monolith in the right direction. I believe its value will be recognized with a couple of years and will trade on par with XOM.

Lowest PE of the supermajors, due to prior reserve mis-statement. Will do very well as long as crude keeps going up.

A very long term play. Shell has been beaten down due to the fact their reserves and prospects are tightening, and the oil prices are not surging as strongly as before. However, what most investors don't realize is that RDS owns several new-age oil recovery patents and leases to thousands of acres of potent reserves in the US. On top of that, it has a very god dividend yield, which I doubt they will reduce by much. looking for at least an avg return of 15%+ over 5 or more years.

Ran a couple of John Neff screens, and this one popped up. I'll have to dig further, but things start to get really intersting when the PE of a company is lower than its dividend yield. Throw in what I think will be a strong macro-trend in oil, and I'm highly considering purchasing this in real life.

value pick
safe dividend at 5.2%

oil will do well as spring comes on and driving season starts.

GS conviction buy, along with the dividend, that's good enough for moi.

Any strengthening in the economy will lead to a rise in oil prices as more people return to work. The odds of a return $140 a barrel oil in 2009 are slim to none, but $75 to $100 seems feasible if the workforce begins to drive again. The recent shrinking of hybrid vehicle sales vs. regular vehicles suggests in moderate times, people like their bigger cars.

Shell looks to have a stronger interest in alt fuel than some other companies, who prefer to focus on extracting the most crude they can. Whether or not this is feasible is the long term gamble, but short term, this one will bounce above $55 by 2010

Management is top notch.

I am betting on oil/energy right now.

Doing things right in the oil business.

Oil is going higher, this will follow.

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