Rigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (RIGL)

CAPS ALL STAR

Current 6.99, Oct 19 09. Limit 5.75

Catalyst at the end of the year

This company has a potential blockbuster in its pipeline, an orally available drug for rheumatoid arthritis. One phase II trial met its endpoint and then the stock was pummeled when a second trial failed to do so. The unusual circumstance was that the results in the drug arm of the second trial were just as good as those in the first, but the placebo arm did unexpectedly well. Trials are continuing and i believe that the drug will ultimately prove to be effective. There will be huge gains once that data is in.

double dip

cheap cheap cheap... let's see how it goes

Stock has been unfairly punished over a slightly worrisome side effect in data from their their clinical trials for their oral Rheumatoid arthritis drug -- patients experienced increases in blood pressure, but those increases were manageable. It could prove a barrier to securing FDA approval, but based on the data available so far, it seems unlikely. Generally, the increase was too insignificant to be worrisome, and when doctors did decide to try to control the increase, they were able to easily do so with conventional blood pressure drugs.

All in all, it looks like a serious overreaction. and if that is the case, this stock represents a huge growth opportunity. After all, when they first released data about positive results of the same drug in the beginning of this year, the stock exploded 200% upwards. Now, since this latest information came out in October, ALL of those gains have been eroded. If Rigel can negotiate a partnership deal and the drug is approved, this stock will become a multi-bagger.

However, if larger, longer clinical trials bring to light any new safety issues, or indicate that known safety issues are more serious than they currently appear, than who knows where the bottom is. Don't put all your eggs in one basket, but in a diversified portfolio, this egg could become one hell of a chicken.

By the way, all of that information comes directly from this in-depth, thorough analysis:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/105033-rigel-pharmaceuticals-biotech-crisis-or-opportunity?source

Believe sell-off related to arthritis drug is overdone at these levels - roughly two thirds of market cap now in cash - long dated, relatively "cheap" call option from current $7.49

Drugs in pipeline

Buyout candidate in a major way. Why? NHL drug showed 60% effectiveness in PII trial - yes it was small but that is so statistically significant it is unlikely to go away completely. Assuming 8,000 new potential patients per year we have a drug that will bring in 500M at its peak, maybe more (depends on additional applications). Soooo... why a buyout? The cost of bringing a drug to market is approx 1.2B. They don't have that kind of $. More importantly, given the cost of getting a FDA approved manufacturing facility up and running is also a B. Should the get approval and not at least partner it they will be a victim of their own success. They (probably) know this. They need a company with deep pockets to fund their clinical trial for NHL as well as the rest of their (for their size) respectable pipeline. Looking at past deals for similar companies in this situation I would estimate the buyout at 2-3B. The only real questions are when and who.

I simply used the screener to identify 1-star companies with the highest 52-week gain. The 1-star rating should mean they are bad companies and the 52-week gain should mean they are overpriced. We’ll see how it works!

The looming recession that bernanke and the whole federal reserve gang have set this country towards will send alot of investors into the pharmaceutical's sector--being the traditional recessionary savior to say the least. Plus, most pharmaceutical stocks have been beaten down this past winter, and I see a reversal across the entire sector. Also, those companies already on a run will continue due to the upward momentum this summer from key reversals and upgrades throughout the sector.

This drug development company has several products in the pipeline and agreements with the major industry players.

Temporarily down, rising back soon

mo mo money will soon get tired
of a drug that hasn't yet even been approved,
and will have plenty of competition when it arrives.
the run-up yesterday and today havs been way overdone.

Up 225% in one day? Time for some caps points!

Looks like an artificial run-up to raise money for a company that is bleeding funds into research and has no income from products to cover. Any revenues are probably the result of meeting milestones for collaborators who will reap the bulk of the profits if eventually a product results. Currently they have no product. Nothing in phase III trials. Do not buy at this price ($22/share). Actually, I wouldn't buy in at any price unless they had several products in Phase III and at least one product on the market. Even then you should assume that this is a very long shot and are looking for extremely high risk stocks in the hope that you will make concomitantly high gains.

Long leads on drug development mean this player will likely underperform the market until they have a winner make it to commercialization.

A turn around coming?