Retail HOLDRS (RTH)

Retail stocks are back up where they were before the economic crisis. What's up with that? The mall looks about as exciting as a museum....or mausoleum.

When the overly optimistic FOMC says that household spending will be "constrained" by sluggish income growth, ongoing job losses, lower household wealth, and tight credit AND Shanghai stocks hit a seven-week low, then you know this bear market rally is finally over!

QUICK! Pick a reason to exit a market that has risen too fast and gotten too expensive. Here are three to choose from: buying power is getting exhausted according to DeMark indicators; daily sentiment indicators are 88% bullish; RSI’s and oscillators are over extended.

Thar, she blows!

False hope going to be dashed soon enough

Consumer market will crash in 2009

HAD GREAT STOCKS IN IT

In the next couple of years I believe US retail will slow the US recession is prolonged. This may have not been one of my smartest picks seeing is it has to underperform the SPY. But we will see what happens.

Top Fools' short interest / TDRH pitch.

retail can't hold up much longer.... its going down at least 40%

spec bear

This stock is way over shorted:
From: http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/

Below is a list of the most heavily shorted ETFs based on short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding. As shown, reported numbers indicate that more than three times the number of shares outstanding are short for RTH, the retail group ETF. KCE, USO, IWM, IYR, OIH and IAI are other ETFs whose numbers suggest that more shares are shorted than shares outstanding.

The next time the market rallies sharply, look for these ETFs to do well.

Maybe the retailers have been undersold. Maybe I will listen to the market pundits talking up a storm on retail. Maybe the storm is over? Not by a long shot. The tech disaster/bubble, which by the billions that were lost at that time are not even comparable to the disaster we call housing. Two of this etf's major holdings are HD and LOWES. A favorite hangout for property flippers. By a couple of cieling fans, a 5 gallon drum of paint, some grass and a bricks for the new driveway and we are off. Well, there are no more flippers, not at least any of them making money. As for Walmart, TGT, BBY and the other stores, the cost of OIL and the costs of shipping products should also factor into the total outlook for this ETF. I think HD will close a few stores, especially when the consumer, who has used their house as a credit card for home improvements, will not want to do them or not be able to due to new mortgage guidelines.

You need a 650 FICO minimum to get a heloc and the property the loan has to fall within at most, 90% LTV AFTER adjustments to "declining markets". I will start getting out of bear mode when the fed drops rates to 1% after what happened in 2002 with the DOT COM CRASH.

no one's gonna be buying anything soon

Read TDRH's comment

I am sorry but no. The drop in the mortgage rates is not going to keep home prices from continuing their decline to real income levels. Financial institutions will need to go back to "old time hockey" 20% down payment will be required. Without alternative financing options, there will not be enough qualified buyers. Banks are currently being forced to bail out the "insurance companies" that do not have enough reserves to cover foreclosures. Consumers will continue to feel the "wealth drain" as their largest investment continues to lose value.

The $600 from the Uncle Sam will be wiped away by the inflationary pressures from higher energy and food costs. In addition, the US imports so much of their consumer goods, as the dollar falls in value, the costs of those imported goods will rise, China will have to adjust their currency or we will just keep printing greenbacks to send to them.

In my mind there are three things that are worth going into serious debt.

1) The first is education, in order to scrape our way out of our debt the country is going to have to have skills and dexterity to continue to evolve faster than other economies & societies. In Ireland, qualified students can go to school for free. The Celtic Tiger's explosive growth is unparalleled. Their economy has cooled recently, but they have a highly skilled and highly motivated work force.

2) The second is to "efficiently" encourage energy conservation/development of alternative energy. This does not mean I support Bio Willie, but the US needs some way to liberate its dependence on Middle East Oil. We do not need to continue to support the lone non Arab state in the area with over 3 billion dollars in military aid, or be involved any further in the Palestinian/Israel conflict.

3) The third is for medical needs/research. If regular medical treatment is affordable for preventative and crisis management the country could save an incredible amount of money. The company I work for just offered us an option for a Health Savings Plan, where we are covered for any expense over $2,500 per year. We can make regular pretax contributions to our Health Savings account and in addition, the company makes a contribution for the savings that it saves them for their % contribution for the HMO. The savings plan pays a small amount of interest, and once your account gets above $2,000 you can select from several mutual funds. Not sure how something like this could be applied national but I will leave that for smarter individuals than me.

Sending $600 to taxpayers is a joke, invest in "Cokes & Smokes" because it will go up in smoke, or be p_ _ _ ed away. I put it in the last phrase in Italics because I stole it from someone here on Caps.

The next president of the United States will need to lead our country in retreat. A land war in Asia has been the historical Waterloo for multiple "empires", guess Bush did not take history at Yale. Our government, consumers and businesses will have to go to the mattresses. It is going to get ugly.

Trouble ahead.

Retail? Not after the beating the market has taken this month. From now on, no more retail for me. I'm going to hunt berries in the woods.

Wrong time for buying this; shorts, have at it.

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