The Ryland Group, Inc. (RYL)

fransgereadts

I almost thought about getting into this industry of buying land and selling people homes that they in no way could afford. However, I realized that the game is predicated on the availability of easy credit and had the h-j's about the deals. So the company that I had concieved with a friend went unfunded and we remained happy.

Now once there was a particulary ugly frog that was vomiting cash amongst the other ugly frogs in the pond and one day a kind princess came and kissed that particular frog and he became a prince and the other frogs never heard from him again but lived hapilly 4 ever after believing forever that there was really something to look forward to.

I believe we have our frog right here. But I don't believe we can count on the princess coming to kiss the frog. The other frogs have nothing to look forward to. And the fairy tale - well the prince was not so happy after all, was he. It was propoganda. Happilly ever after.... harumpf.

how are these companies raising money? is this some kind of obamacare?

And why is the price for this 20 dollars. Can we ever justify that?

Great time to build a house huh?

Shorting all the 1 star home builders I have room for.

A top is in for homebuilders, a pullback is overdue.

Sucker of all sucker rallies, Ryland is still a big PoS that should be going to zero, yet another red thumb on yet another suckers rally, my first red thumb on RYL was at 45/share back in 2007 - it's intrinsic value is zero now, just as it was then.

Ryland broomed two of my friends... screw Ryland... I don't see them going bankrupt but the stock should pull back and I would be a buyer under $10

too many homes now

Copying a highly accurate players picks.

Foolish.

If you don't agree with my rating just visit one of their sales office.

HAHAHAHHA

Dex

1. Ryland has used aggressive accounting to value its book of raw land and will have further write downs as time goes on.

2.RYL is trading above its "inflated" book value

3. Ryland also has significant leverage $700M+.... this limits there ability to buy distressed land and lower their cost basis.

4. RYL will not be a profitable as new builders / legacy builders buying distressed land.

5. National builders are all crowding the same second tier markets to replace the decline in demand in formerly "hot markets"

6. RYL is slowing it's building to match demand... but less building = less revenue and SGA is not falling so gross margins will be low for the foreseeable future.

7. IN OTHER WORDS RYL IS DEAD MONEY AT BEST

8. Sales volumes are so slow that write down models will require bigger write downs from all builders

9. Homebuilding is a pretty lousy business unless you do ONE THING WELL... BUY CHEAP LAND. Multi-decade charts of homebuilding stocks validate this view... intrinsic value was not created at a rate that lifted stocks for 5 -8 year periods at a time!

10. less people looking qualified to buy homes nationally because of foreclosures and poor credit / income

Homebuilder loaded with debt, overvalued inventories that no one's buying, and no prospects for recovery once they burn through their cash and liquidate their inventories at fire-sale prices.

Lots of debt (Debt/Equity = 92.8%). Losses are piling up, and little new building is being done. Profit margins are at -21.3%, operating margin is barely above water at 3% as is Return on Assets at 1.8%, while Return on Equity is a blistering -47.2% in the most recent quarter. I see the economy continuing to slip down the backside of this housing bubble for another 12-18 months, so do not anticipate much new real estate buying for at least the next 9-12 months. Ryland only has $4.68/share in cash, and they'd better hold onto that as long as possible, for it will be their life line during the next year. They must convert more of their properties to cash, but I don't see that happening. The only fly in this downward trend may be occasional blips upward as the Shorts Percentage against this stock is currently H-U-G-E at 32.6%. A short squeeze could push this stock up to $30-$33/share, but I think that run-up will be short-lived.

Thanks to DemonDoug and dexion10 for their insight via their reviews of this Thumbs-Down choice. Please see their pitches too.

Would someone like to ask the execs just what the "plan" is when they run out of inventory and only have debt...

If they have to build and sell homes to survive, and they don't have the working capital or operations in markets with margins to build for a profit...

I wonder if I can pick up the CEOs desk at a reduced price?...anyone know if it's solid mahogany?...does anyone know if the lamp and plant come with?

Low in cash. will be BK before Summer 2009.

ccest