Origin Agritech Ltd. (NASDAQ:SEED)

CAPS Rating: 1 out of 5

A Chinese producer and distributor of hybrid crop seeds, primarily corn, rice, cotton, and canola.

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Member Avatar BuffettJunior1 (96.39) Submitted: 10/28/2011 3:36:16 PM : Underperform Start Price: $2.82 SEED Score: +65.98

Chinese reverse merger fraud.

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Member Avatar Allstar13913 (99.80) Submitted: 7/25/2011 12:10:00 PM : Underperform Start Price: $4.44 SEED Score: +88.98

China Stock Fraud.

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Member Avatar ChinaBottom (< 20) Submitted: 6/24/2011 12:08:31 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.07 SEED Score: -90.52

Tracking portfolio for China based companies that gained listings on US exchanges (Nasdaq, NYSE, or Amex) after conducting reverse mergers. Stocks that have been delisted have been omitted. Start date: Jun 24, average P/E of these companies: 3.

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Member Avatar ChinaRTO (99.86) Submitted: 4/14/2011 3:38:32 AM : Underperform Start Price: $7.27 SEED Score: +111.94

This is a tracking portfolio of all CAPS-ratable tickers in the Chinese RTO/SPAC space (i.e., companies that listed without filing an IPO).

Origin Agritech Ltd. went public via a blank check (SPAC) merger in 2005. The company is based in China.

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Member Avatar ttboydxb (29.36) Submitted: 7/30/2010 2:04:28 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.14 SEED Score: -143.34

Focusing on Chinese consumption stocks for the future.

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Member Avatar tttchicattt (98.16) Submitted: 5/4/2010 1:00:01 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.92 SEED Score: -131.62

pot's rule

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Member Avatar exitplan (< 20) Submitted: 3/29/2010 12:45:35 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.42 SEED Score: -137.58

Corn + water shortage+ China govt. support!

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Member Avatar dede144 (< 20) Submitted: 3/27/2010 3:49:41 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.30 SEED Score: -137.43

I have bought and sold this stock many times in the last 4 months. I buy under 10 and sell in the middle 10's.to high 10's..I do buy at least 5,000 shares at a time. I even held onto one a little longer, sold in the low 13's. I still believe this is a takeover, in the meantime I just buy and sell this stock.

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Member Avatar lonewulf47638 (43.57) Submitted: 3/2/2010 10:13:38 AM : Outperform Start Price: $9.33 SEED Score: -142.13

China will nrrd food to grow and seed is it.

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Member Avatar alaskiian (< 20) Submitted: 2/13/2010 9:06:56 PM : Outperform Start Price: $9.00 SEED Score: -146.44

high as 18 dollar stock...China is a plus for me...Good things are happening in China..++++

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Member Avatar JasonB824 (36.66) Submitted: 1/29/2010 12:15:43 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.87 SEED Score: -151.21

China is increasing their agricultural programs, SEED will benefit.

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Member Avatar siliconwafer (21.82) Submitted: 1/18/2010 2:54:49 PM : Underperform Start Price: $12.34 SEED Score: +145.98

Speculating that this will fall over the next two weeks. Stock is topped out and there's no fuel left for further run. Company is not making money and consistently reports late.

I will buy the Feb 2010 $12.50 put option.

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Member Avatar marti837 (< 20) Submitted: 1/1/2010 9:38:46 AM : Outperform Start Price: $11.80 SEED Score: -146.97

speculative

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Member Avatar LCR06 (20.62) Submitted: 12/2/2009 7:34:41 PM : Underperform Start Price: $12.75 SEED Score: +149.60

Lets see how far it will drop.

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Member Avatar kleio (44.39) Submitted: 11/30/2009 6:20:04 PM : Outperform Start Price: $13.30 SEED Score: -150.48

This company genetically modifies feed for mainly corn and rice. Staple for China. Gov will likely approve locally modified seeds vs. those of Cargill and MOS.

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Member Avatar whichstock (< 20) Submitted: 11/23/2009 11:50:36 PM : Underperform Start Price: $11.06 SEED Score: +147.76

If you compare the number of total outstanding share with today's volume, you know there is something tricky.

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Member Avatar ghost24601 (< 20) Submitted: 10/29/2009 10:49:25 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.74 SEED Score: -128.30

Need for food in China will enable this company to succeed

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Member Avatar Kyckie (< 20) Submitted: 5/30/2009 3:15:18 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.31 SEED Score: -149.32

very good management. China is a growing market at a very high pace

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Member Avatar CrazyCal17 (83.08) Submitted: 8/5/2008 11:32:51 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.53 SEED Score: -102.36

This stock is a great choice. By evaluating this company and looking at their growth pattern and their marketing strategies this is a sure fire stock to pick. This company has great leadership with the ability to think outside the box. With the possibility of some future acquisitions this has all the ingredients for wonderful success, short term and long term both. Keep up and watch out. With this outlook ahead, we should also look to the left and right (aka their competion) for huge leaps as well. If you have a little on the side I say diversify within the sector and buy from all the competetors too for they also are looking very solid. That is my pick and I am sticking to it.

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Member Avatar LEGMAKER (< 20) Submitted: 6/2/2008 4:35:06 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.14 SEED Score: -102.44

The agricultural industry has done quite well for the past year and a half. Many of these stocks use to be out of favor as they were dependable, but there was very little upside in these investments. Demand for agriculture has been relatively stable worldwide with respect to all of the commodities. Now that the United States is putting 20% of its corn crop into ethanol the commodities price is up and the move of acreage to corn from soybeans and wheat has caused both to increase. This is not the whole story as emerging markets are a bigger push in the price of food commodities. Since prices had maintained for so long, infrastructure has not been invested in, and this has caused inventories to go to historic lows. My call on Monsanto is up 14% in the last 150 days on theupdown.com.

With the meteoric rise, most have heard of Monsanto. Sygenta has also been tossed around and has realized decent gains, although eclipsed by Monsanto. SEED is also another player and they are based out of China. China's market has hit a snag as global inflation has decreased growth. Even with the downside, SEED still seems well positioned based on China's change in eating habits. They are beginning to change to a meat based diet and this will increase demand for things such as corn with respect to feed for cattle and poultry. Once a country begins to eat meat, they do not stop historically, and this could mean even more drawdowns in these markets. As of 2006, SEED has developed numerous corn, rice and canola hybrids. They were the first private seed company in China, which makes them well placed long term as it is seen that the companies that first get started in China have a strangle hold on the market. A good example would be LFC.

These companies are seem to be priced high but they are not. Due to the new changes in seeds, they have become technology company. SEED has GMO technology which is currently working on herbicide, insecticide and drought tolerance. Even better China is the second largest planter of corn in the world with 67.7 million acres. Other significant developments are that China should become a corn importer as of 2009. China's corn yields are currently 50%-60% that of the US. China has not embraced biotechnology yet, but it is thought that is only because they want to use their own seeds. Their soil is not well suited for corn in many areas and that is anther reason to embrace biotechnology. China is losing farm land at an alarming pace. In 2006, they lost 121.8 million hectares. 12.3 million hectares are contaminated by pollution (an increasing problem for China. They lost $2.6 billion in grains from heavy metal contamination alone. 55% of China's land is dry, but with a new drought resistant technology, will be suitable for planting. From 2000 to 2005 meat consumption has increased 26%.

On valuation, the company's forward PE of 23.86 seems very inexpensive when the type of growth the company could have. There are not analyst estimates with respect to earnings for this quarter, but full year expectations are $.19 versus -$.94 last year. I believe you can buy into earnings or wait for a pullback. This entire sector is well placed and China's protectionist policies will help this company grow into an earnings giant, just think what will happen if a low cost provider of seeds hits the market with biotechnology that works well, there will be an unbelievable cycle of growth especially when farmers are saying that the price of seeds doubled from last year and Roundup tripled.

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