Shutterfly, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFLY)

Do people not remember the lessons of 2000? You don't invest in a stock just because it has a business plan and a ".com". With the exception of a few stocks that had a plan to change the way we do business (amazon, google, ebay), .com stocks are nothing but a way to milk investors of their money.

Breakout over $28.35

love a good short squeeze

Short squeeze candidate w/ big insider buys recently and technicals that look poised to pop. Target of $40 in 3-6 months.

ppt short squeeze

You can make cards on your iPhone now, as well as any number of other places. The company will continue to dwindle in importance.

Good value

http://chart.ly/edsjw75
RaginCajun
$SFLY http://stks.co/S1y Watch for a breakdown
Oct. 3 at 12:23

Perhaps I'm missing something here, but a company that can continue to grow into accelerating losses is quite nauseating. Not only that, but when they can do that and be rewarded for a higher stock price is a sure recipe for doom.

They decided to purchase Tiny Print recently which they claim is going to help them grow. So let me get this straight, being the leader of social print, they needed to spend millions more on an unproven and a loss making company? Great, add more revenue loss growing to a loss growth and you get more earning loss. That sounds like an excellent idea.

This company is clearly a fad and when the tide recedes, they will clearly take a serious hit. Charging money to make some gift cards online is not exactly the greatest business model. The only reason why I can see this company even going to ever astronomical values is due to the fact they have a social expression component in the business. I bet if there were rumors of facebook or some other ridiculous social company wanting to purchase them, they would probably be worth 10-20 billion too.

As you can see, I believe this is clearly a bubble in the making and their bubble burst will clearly make a lot of sad investors face reality.

Momentum!

SFLY is a short because the market has not properly accounted for the competition and margin risk in its core business, Personalized
Products and Services (“PPS”) (>70% of 2010A Revenues), and is inappropriately valuing the equity. While sell-side analysts
acknowledge the risk of competition, no analysts account for potential pricing pressure in their estimates. Additionally, research analysts
believe that SFLY will continue to exhibit growth that is on the high end or exceeds management guidance (Consensus 2011E and 2012E
PPS revenue growth is 29% and 24%, respectively). The projected consensus growth far exceeds the estimated growth of SFLY’s
underlying PPS industry (2010E – 2013E CAGR of 11.1%). While SFLY is currently in a market leading position, some competitors offer
products priced at a 15% - 40% discount with the option of picking up their products on the same day at a retail location (which SFLY
does not have for PPS). Due to the high level of competition in this space, which continues to intensify each day, and the commodity-
like nature of the products, business 101 tells us that this is not sustainable. Furthermore, over 50% of SFLY’s earnings and free cash
flow occurs in December, so it would be very difficult for the company to adjust its cost basis if demand or pricing forecasts fall short
of expectations late in the year. Thus, EPS is highly sensitive to pricing discounts. For example, if SFLY PPS prices decrease by 10% in
2012E, consensus Non-GAAP EPS could decrease by as much as 45%. Finally, sell-side analysts use a set of e-commerce comparables,
such as Opentable and Netflix, which have completely different underlying industry, growth and margin characteristics, in order to show that
SFLY trades in-line or at a discount to its peers. Using a screen of consumer discretionary comparables with very similar growth and margin
characteristics as SFLY implies that SFLY’s multiple valuation is almost 2x its peer group.

dated......

overvalued, will even out.

short watchlist

The business model just doesn't stick anymore.

This was an impressive quarter for them, as they broke into the black in operating income. Their balance sheet looks equally as well. But they have real potential to grow since a great amount of the country has no idea who they are and what they do. If they start marketing themselves better they can provide great returns. It does scare me at this level because it is reaching the 52-week high and it will take some greater initiative on their part to break through to new levels. But otherwise in another year or so the S&P will be in the gutter and this will be alive and well.

SFLY has a too high valuation compared to its sales potential. It also does not distribute any dividend.

If it was going to take off. It would have... putt putt putt....

I can't seriously buy a company where I can change one letter and the resulting word makes me giggle.