Shutterfly, Inc. (NASDAQ:SFLY)

CAPS Rating: 1 out of 5

The Company is an Internet-based social expression and personal publishing service that enables consumers to share, print and preserve their memories by leveraging its technology, manufacturing, web-design and merchandising capabilities.

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Member Avatar peregrine11 (< 20) Submitted: 10/5/2013 3:35:41 PM : Underperform Start Price: $55.51 SFLY Score: +46.55

Over valued, thin market, low barriers to entry

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Member Avatar scrubs62074 (68.79) Submitted: 2/8/2013 8:49:24 AM : Outperform Start Price: $41.70 SFLY Score: -34.42

High volume breakout on 2/7/13

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Member Avatar bonnetgustavo (71.64) Submitted: 12/4/2012 6:47:26 AM : Underperform Start Price: $27.20 SFLY Score: -10.38

awful numbers so far....good business idea...lets follow

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Member Avatar Wade32ru (< 20) Submitted: 8/10/2012 7:31:09 PM : Underperform Start Price: $30.86 SFLY Score: +8.98

No way. This company is going to struggle making money going forward..

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Member Avatar JosephB72 (< 20) Submitted: 6/6/2012 3:19:42 PM : Outperform Start Price: $26.83 SFLY Score: +1.33

I think SFLY will continue to gain market in the personal printing space. This is the best company I have found for making photo books and calendars and the like. Looks like $25 is good support for the stock.

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Member Avatar TrackHorowitz (26.80) Submitted: 2/8/2012 6:33:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $28.14 SFLY Score: -1.31

Breakout over $28.35

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Member Avatar gatzbp (94.07) Submitted: 1/25/2012 3:48:44 PM : Underperform Start Price: $23.99 SFLY Score: -21.61

You can make cards on your iPhone now, as well as any number of other places. The company will continue to dwindle in importance.

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Member Avatar Jeffrey2012 (< 20) Submitted: 8/7/2011 7:55:16 AM : Underperform Start Price: $53.03 SFLY Score: +81.09

Perhaps I'm missing something here, but a company that can continue to grow into accelerating losses is quite nauseating. Not only that, but when they can do that and be rewarded for a higher stock price is a sure recipe for doom.

They decided to purchase Tiny Print recently which they claim is going to help them grow. So let me get this straight, being the leader of social print, they needed to spend millions more on an unproven and a loss making company? Great, add more revenue loss growing to a loss growth and you get more earning loss. That sounds like an excellent idea.

This company is clearly a fad and when the tide recedes, they will clearly take a serious hit. Charging money to make some gift cards online is not exactly the greatest business model. The only reason why I can see this company even going to ever astronomical values is due to the fact they have a social expression component in the business. I bet if there were rumors of facebook or some other ridiculous social company wanting to purchase them, they would probably be worth 10-20 billion too.

As you can see, I believe this is clearly a bubble in the making and their bubble burst will clearly make a lot of sad investors face reality.

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Member Avatar TripleTheMarket (< 20) Submitted: 5/2/2011 11:51:17 AM : Outperform Start Price: $60.05 SFLY Score: -80.02

Momentum!

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Member Avatar miksong (< 20) Submitted: 3/21/2011 3:42:01 AM : Underperform Start Price: $42.79 SFLY Score: +60.03

SFLY is a short because the market has not properly accounted for the competition and margin risk in its core business, Personalized
Products and Services (“PPS”) (>70% of 2010A Revenues), and is inappropriately valuing the equity. While sell-side analysts
acknowledge the risk of competition, no analysts account for potential pricing pressure in their estimates. Additionally, research analysts
believe that SFLY will continue to exhibit growth that is on the high end or exceeds management guidance (Consensus 2011E and 2012E
PPS revenue growth is 29% and 24%, respectively). The projected consensus growth far exceeds the estimated growth of SFLY’s
underlying PPS industry (2010E – 2013E CAGR of 11.1%). While SFLY is currently in a market leading position, some competitors offer
products priced at a 15% - 40% discount with the option of picking up their products on the same day at a retail location (which SFLY
does not have for PPS). Due to the high level of competition in this space, which continues to intensify each day, and the commodity-
like nature of the products, business 101 tells us that this is not sustainable. Furthermore, over 50% of SFLY’s earnings and free cash
flow occurs in December, so it would be very difficult for the company to adjust its cost basis if demand or pricing forecasts fall short
of expectations late in the year. Thus, EPS is highly sensitive to pricing discounts. For example, if SFLY PPS prices decrease by 10% in
2012E, consensus Non-GAAP EPS could decrease by as much as 45%. Finally, sell-side analysts use a set of e-commerce comparables,
such as Opentable and Netflix, which have completely different underlying industry, growth and margin characteristics, in order to show that
SFLY trades in-line or at a discount to its peers. Using a screen of consumer discretionary comparables with very similar growth and margin
characteristics as SFLY implies that SFLY’s multiple valuation is almost 2x its peer group.

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Member Avatar tommyboy1969 (40.05) Submitted: 2/17/2011 4:38:02 PM : Underperform Start Price: $43.00 SFLY Score: +54.57

dated......

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Member Avatar caradeporra (48.63) Submitted: 2/16/2011 3:20:01 PM : Underperform Start Price: $46.21 SFLY Score: +62.12

overvalued, will even out.

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Member Avatar GrowthnValue (< 20) Submitted: 12/2/2010 9:10:37 PM : Underperform Start Price: $33.97 SFLY Score: +43.69

short watchlist

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Member Avatar everchini (< 20) Submitted: 2/25/2010 3:02:51 PM : Outperform Start Price: $19.20 SFLY Score: +34.41

This was an impressive quarter for them, as they broke into the black in operating income. Their balance sheet looks equally as well. But they have real potential to grow since a great amount of the country has no idea who they are and what they do. If they start marketing themselves better they can provide great returns. It does scare me at this level because it is reaching the 52-week high and it will take some greater initiative on their part to break through to new levels. But otherwise in another year or so the S&P will be in the gutter and this will be alive and well.

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Member Avatar bbqchickenrobot (< 20) Submitted: 9/24/2008 4:16:56 PM : Underperform Start Price: $9.12 SFLY Score: -288.30

If it was going to take off. It would have... putt putt putt....

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Member Avatar Investorlion (83.39) Submitted: 5/29/2008 6:04:26 PM : Outperform Start Price: $14.18 SFLY Score: +147.29

This company will most likely get taken over. Has been beaten down quite a bit, but they have a decent presence in the online digital photo market and can be snapped up by some content provider. insider buying also indicates to something happening out there.

Disclosure: SFLY long since mid May.

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Member Avatar bumbobway (84.20) Submitted: 5/27/2008 4:03:32 PM : Outperform Start Price: $12.98 SFLY Score: +173.16

This is a long term hold. SFLY will continue to do well during Q4.

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Member Avatar aaacs (93.75) Submitted: 5/6/2008 11:11:53 AM : Outperform Start Price: $13.01 SFLY Score: +174.29

buy out play around $16 when share price hits 11.50 in mid to late July

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Member Avatar arpagenx (39.39) Submitted: 3/25/2008 10:15:08 PM : Outperform Start Price: $16.24 SFLY Score: +102.38

Buyout candidate eventually.

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Member Avatar bcolljames (24.22) Submitted: 11/26/2007 1:05:19 PM : Underperform Start Price: $28.70 SFLY Score: +2.22

A stand-alone company will not survive in this competitive, low-margin world. If they get bought, which should happen, then I will be wrong about the stock price but I expect they will just closely coast down.

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