Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD)
The Company is a broadline retailer. It currently conducts its operations in three business segments: Kmart, Sears Domestic and Sears Canada.
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Overwhelming debt.
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Cramer push
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Two turkeys (Sears & Kmart) do not an eagle make.
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I like Sears, but I can see them getting absolutely crushed in this economy. What do people go to Sears for besides "good value" tools and appliances? It essentially is a department store that is known for what Home Depot and Lowe's are better-known for. I hope Sears survives, but I wouldn't bet on it.
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Rose 45% for the year as the strict cost-cutting put in place by Sears CEO, Eddie Lampert, boosted margins despite slightly lower sales. Expect even more such actions in 2007, coupled with continued huge stock buybacks and the possibility of Eddie investing more of the company's excess cash. If he can generate anywhere near the type of returns he did at his hedge fund with Sears' capital, this stock could double. This is more of a play on Eddie Lampert than a stodgy retailer.
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Cup with Handle formation has evolved over past 14 months, with buy point at 158.00. Stop should be placed at 145.00, but expected to increase in value.
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Craftman Tools!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Sears and K-Mart never became the cash cows Lampert imagined they would. The underlying real estate has only lost value. Underinvestment means these retailers will only fall further behind in an extremely challenging sector.
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As an experienced Executive Recruiter specializing in retail I am aware of the internal mess at Sears Holdings. There is an attempt to move the apparel design function to New York while leaving Home design in Hoffman Estates. Talent is fleeing and I believe quality will suffer
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Strong management. Big stock buyback. Improving store image. Kmart turnaround is process.
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eddie's got this company turned around, good cash flow, great boat to be on.
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The time to implode these retail buildings and build condos for profit is passing quickly. Other then building condos in the former retail space. I have no idea how Eddie is going to outperform?
If you want retail, buy: Costco, BBY and Walmart.
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Good stock that has performed well since the merger.
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An investment in SHLD represents compelling long term value at today's prices. The markets current myopic focus on the next few quarters provides investors with a longer term time horizon the opportunity to purchase shares at a significant discount to intrinsic value. Reason's for this opportunity are many, namely recent declines within the retail industry, coupled with concerns over the economy and housing related spending. These short term considerations have provided a chance to invest in a business with deeply undervalued real-estate assets and world class capital allocation at bargain prices. A short list of SHLD's opportunities to provide meaningful value creation are as follows:
1) Chairman and hedge fund manager Eddie Lampert has a solid record of generating wealth for shareholders (Ltd. partners) over the last 20 years, and in my opinion will continue to do so at above average rates far into the future. Outside of his stellar record of allocating capital, he has (at the moment) a 42% stake in the company, clearly aligning his interests with fellow shareholders. Shareholders have granted him the authority to invest the company's excess cash.
With that in mind (he doesn't strike me as the type to fool around with his own money) he has bought back at minimum 12.4m shares over the last few quarters, the common sense conclusion is that he see's significant value at prices far above today's levels. Oddly, SHLD has opted to report the most recent quarters results a few weeks later than has been the norm historically. My guess concerning the rational behind such a move is simple...Mr. Lampert would like a few more weeks to accumulate additional shares at today's rock bottom prices. By the end of November I would be willing to wager that SHLD has completed its recently authorized share buy back plan in full.
2) Management has a meaningful opportunity to generate additional cash by streamlining the combined entity's (Sears and Kmart) operations (cutting excess operating costs) and selling underperforming stores and poor performing brands.
3) SHLD possesses some of this countries most recognizable and iconic brands, including Kenmore, Craftsman, Land's End, and Martha Stewart.
4) SHLD benefits from valuable real-estate assets secured at very attractive long term rates (at a time when Sears commanded significant bargaining power). These properties are listed on balance sheet at an incredible discount to their likely private market (the price informed buyers would be willing to pay in an "arm's length" transaction) or fair value. On top of this discount, most of SHLD's mall based locations sit on highly coveted high traffic "anchor" spots. If these assets were sold or leased to more "attractive" tenants with better operational results (such as TGT, HD, etc.), I have no doubt that Sears would be able collect premium prices.
If Lampert where to monetize this enormous source of value, I assume it will be done slowly over time and will represent a classic case of resource conversion. By creating a REIT and opportunistically adding properties within Sears and Kmart's real estate portfolio, Mr. lampert will unlock yet another "lever" to add meaningful value for shareholders. Fellow highly respected investment manager Bill Ackman recently discussed what I believe to be an insightful & interesting relative value comparison between Simon Property Group's present valuation for similar assets. To say the least, the difference is staggering and should shed significant light on what the market may value SHLD's "hidden" assets at some point going forward.
Fair Value should consist of essentially four parts
1) The likely Free Cash Flow that the retail business generates going forward
2) Lamperts ability to reinvest the free cash at attractive rates
3) The value of the firms underlying real estate
4) The value of the firms proprietary brands
Applying no premium for Mr. Lamperts proven ability as a master capital allocater and possibly excessively conservative estimates to everything else I come to an intrinsic value of at least $220 per share. At roughly the $120 a share that SHLD shares are currently offered for, investors willing to take a more patient long term viewpoint stand to generate returns far in excess of what the overall market will likely generate over the next 3-5 years.
To reiterate...between Mr. Lampert's ability to compound shareholder value over time, it's extremely valuable real estate holdings, and a retail business that is currently printing cash, SHLD offers tremendous value
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Sears sucks.. Who shops at Sears except maybe for hardware. If we're going into a recession, I don't see them doing well.
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Next Bershire Hathaway!!! Eddie Lampart is the man to bet on.
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Maybe retail isn't dead....those people who defaulted on mortgates will now have more money to play with
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K-Mart bought Sears remember !?! This stock will overperform over-night being that "Thee" main strength of this company is K-Mart owns ALL those properties it use to have store locations. No mortgages required !
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I am putting my faith in Mr. Lampert, even though he has not shown much in the past.
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If it goes down any more, it'll just make that much sense. Me likey the risk/reward and quite possibly oversold.
P.S. Mr. Lampert let me know if you need any help, I'm seem to be doing lovely here at the "caps".

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