Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD)

I'm the contrarian on this one but I just don't see the value. Kmart was a dog. Sears was a dog. Combine them, shine up the floors and suddenly they're terrific? I've been in the stores a few times and there was nothing there that made me want to come back. Perhaps in rural parts of the country these stores play better but in suburban/urban markets, I think that there are better options out there for consumers. Personally, I think he's moving the deck chairs around on the Titanic.

How often does Mr. Market offer investors the opportunity to purchase a collection of assets at a significant discount to liquidation value? Occasionally...

How often does Mr. Market throw in a brilliant capitalist to manage those assets at no additional charge? Every decade or so would be my guess...if that.

I figure it would be wise to take advantage when he does.

Call me crazy if I don't subscribe to those who apparantly believe Eddie has gotten "dum dum" over the last year or so. The man has compound capital at 30% a year for 25 years! Lets get serious here, at roughly $70 this is truly a heads I win, tails I don't lose propositon...Dhando!

The bottom line....

Real estate and brand liquidation values provide downside protection (as opposed to being Lampert’s “strategy” as some claim). Over the next few years there are many possibilities that could drive significant upside from today's ludicrous level, but here are a few: (1) The sale or monetization of coveted assets; (2) A successful turnaround of the retail stores; (3) The allocation of capital from poor-performing cash generators (Kmart) to higher return divisions (Lands End) or new investments...

Longer term I am sure Eddie will continue to do what he has always done...compound capital at above average rates for himself and his partners (SHLD shareholders).

I'm late to the party on this one...I've hated it ever since Lampert stole my money.

Why short?
1. Lampert- he doesn't care about selling, he cares about making money...mostly for himself.
2. Lampert- he's not a retailer, he doesn't care about retail and it's tough enough in the retail business.
3. Lampert- Sears Holddings is more akin to a hedge fund. Most every hedge fund is under duress.

I have a 5 year CAPS underperform, but I think they'll be gone before then.

Eddie Lampert uses a value based philosophy. His hedge funds required a 5 year commitment because it often takes a few years for the investments to reach their value.

I also like that he is trying to make the retail part work. Too many people felt he was going to use the cash and real estate to make SHLD a hedge fund. As a value investor though he needs a steady income of cash so that he does not have to sell his holdings to purchase new opportunities. Sears does not have to beat Target and Wal-Mart, They just have to regularly create positive cash flow.

I think he will get there. If not it is pretty near it bottom at this point

I just don't buy it. The stores are nasty and poorly run, with lesser selection (in quality and quantity) compared to WMT, TGT, and other department stores. Sears Essentials is K-Mart with a Sears logo. "Exclusive" brands like Craftsman aren't as big a deal as they used to be - hardware stores like Lowes have better ones. If Martha Stewart's brand is such a big deal, invest directly into MSO. E-Commerce efforts are very very weak compared to retail competitors. And I can't swallow the whole real estate thing. If the property is so valuable, why bother continuing to operate stores? Just liquidate the properties and show the investors what you've been promising for the last 5 years. I see a lot of vacant K-Marts in this part of the country and there's not much demand for any of them. PE of nearly 24? Time to smash this jack-o-lantern.

Sears is viewed as a retailer, a holding company, the folly of Eddie Lambert, and as a lion in real-estate-lambs clothing. I view it as a potential short squeeze at around $80 a share. With more than two weeks to cover, a declared book value of $80.81, and an adjusted book value of $81.17, the hard assets provide, if not a floor, then, at least a limit on the downside of the stock. The shorts, however, loudly claim the stock is headed toward $50, but this strikes me as bluster borne of little data and a defined options expiration date. Moreover, the company lists the book value of its real estate holdings at $1 billion, which is the basis on which the book value is calculated. Credit Suisse, however, estimated the actual value of the real estate holdings at $4.7 billion. If the Credit Suisse figure is accurate, the real book value of the company is something above $104 per share. My calculations in support of these claims is provided at:
http://rcrawford.wordpress.com/2008/05/24/sears-holdings…ld-may-23-2008sears-holdings-nyse-shld-may-23-2008/

The calculations using the Credit Suisse estimate is provided at:
http://rcrawford.wordpress.com/2008/06/02/sears-supposit…l-estate-valuesears-supposition-about-real-estate-value/

Did they or did they not have a big earnings miss yesterday? Sure they are closing underperforming stores and hiring new execs but common their problems go way beyond that.

Seriously SHLD has some issues, imagine Wal-Mart-ish appearance stores with no pricing advantage, poor inventory controls, unfocused brand, little marketing and management that isn't retail focused (Buffet wanna-be Eddie Lampert).

That is Sears and it ain't so great. I doubt they will go chapter 11 unless things get really really bad, but they certainly could fall further especially after yesterday's bounce....

will eventually be broken up. book value of real estate not reflected in price (rightfully so) b/c it's been underutilized. good assets in the company that will be put to best use in the hands of others, so they'll migrate there over time.

will take 5 years (more, prob) but assets will begin to migrate to their best use. looking at a double in 5-10 years (so 7-15% or so, which will outperform the S&P)

Love this stock. I bought back when it was still K-Mart and put a decent chunk of change in it. I never bought this for the K-Mart or Sears name or because I thought they had a chance at a come back. To me this is purely a play on Real Estate and Eddie Lampert investing excess cash flow.

Edward Lampert. That's all I really have to say about this stock.

Schools of thought are strongly divided on the issue, but based on his paper trail I'm willing to bet he'll turn the Sears and K-Mart (SHLD) cash engines to his extreme advantage in savvy acquisitions for years to come.

Eddie Lambert is an investor not just a CEO. The street doesn't understand that SHLD is an investing company not the K-mart/Sears retail store chain. SHLD is basically a hedge fund you can buy into without having 100k to shell out and still get the returns from Eddie Lambert's brilliance

I dont really like retail. Nor do I like shopping (not at Sears anyway). But I agree with Cramer on this one. It isn't about Sears it is about the Holding. That is the company is making better investments for growth vs. focusing on retail.

I'd like to see proof that Lampert is deploying capital outside of Sears/Kmart, but I'll take the margin of safety provided by the real estate holdings. There's a chance Lampert will deploy capital well, and that chance is pretty much risk-free since liquidation value is probably higher than the current market cap.

The Kmart of the retailer industry. Oh wait...

Rose 45% for the year as the strict cost-cutting put in place by Sears CEO, Eddie Lampert, boosted margins despite slightly lower sales. Expect even more such actions in 2007, coupled with continued huge stock buybacks and the possibility of Eddie investing more of the company's excess cash. If he can generate anywhere near the type of returns he did at his hedge fund with Sears' capital, this stock could double. This is more of a play on Eddie Lampert than a stodgy retailer.

As an experienced Executive Recruiter specializing in retail I am aware of the internal mess at Sears Holdings. There is an attempt to move the apparel design function to New York while leaving Home design in Hoffman Estates. Talent is fleeing and I believe quality will suffer

If you have been to a Sears store in the last two years, you know why I am shorting the stock. This company simply cannot compete with the likes of Walmart, Target, Kohls, Home Depot, Lowes and Best Buy. After the recent unjustified surge in retail stocks, this seems like a good time to initiate a short position.

This stock was picked by TMF Charm.

This company's CEO (Eddie Lampert) is the next Warren Buffett. Climb on board as this stock goes to $100,000 per share (much like Berkshire Hathaway) over the next two decades. Ten shares now will be worth millions by 2040.