iShares Barclays Short Treasury Bond Fund (ETF) (AMEX:SHV)
iShares Barclays Short Treasury Bond Fund (ETF)
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Fools must have cash in their portfolio to protect against losses from macroeconomic issues in Europe and China.
SHV is a proxy for cash in my caps portfolio.
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8 crossed 20
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Like taking candy from a baby. What Fool among us really believes that short-term treasuries will beat the S&P at present day valuations? I have trouble believing the S&P 500 will underperform cash over the next 5 years. Even Buffett- who hates to make market timing predictions - is on the record as saying Treasuries will underperform.
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specbear
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I am predicting bond will outperfrom equities for the next few years. My reasons are as follows:
The S&P is way overpriced, the P/E ratio is above the historic median.
David Rosenberg points out the S&P has priced in 4% GDP growth for 2010 while the bond market has priced in 2%.
More than 100% of the economic growth we have seen in 2009 has been the result of government spending. This cannot continue forever. If you take away government spending in 2009 real GDP would be down around 6%
While firms have been "beating" earnings estimates those estimated have been DRASTICALLY cut down over the past year.
Lastly if you look at the S&P 500 earnings have been made by cutting costs, as revenue is down. You can only cut costs (lay off people) for so long, eventually you have to sell more.
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Still think this is a bear market Rally!!
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Flight to quality hasn't ended yet.
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U.S. stock bull 3/17/2008.
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read "My left foot" in my blog
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Cheap shot easy money pick.
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bonds underperform
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IIOTTMCO
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Easy way to get points on this one.
Easy maths on this one.
Funds without fees have on average 50% possibilities of outperforming the market, and the ones who do it usually do it for 2%or 3%. Funds including fees, have a very small probabability of outperforming the market.
I'm using this pick as a way to easy pumb my accuracy. You may do the same, but first, pay me with a Rec on this comment, it's the world of capitalism, not even opinions are given for free.
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