SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA)

Too much positive to list for SIGA but they are gearing up for commercialization of the product have presented to BARDA and the World Health Organization. SIGA has also finalized the market image and packaging of the commercial material.

SIGA has a too high valuation compared to its sales potential. It is also loss making.

Their technology is excellent and they have a strong patent position around their potential therapeutics.

They are bleeding money and quite frankly, I'd be surprised if they didn't go bankrupt in the coming months.

They have no competition for Federal RFP for millions of courses with results to be announced in Sept. 09. Added to that are the worldwide concerns of a smallpox pandemic resulting from the increased threats of bio terrorism.

SIGA is led by a very careful understated management team. It has been awarded about 80 million in grants by the government during the last year and it is almost sure to be awarded a goverment contract to produce its lead drug ST-246 in Sept of this year. With FDA approval other countries will be placing orders as well. Do some DD on this one, short term looks great long term depends on progress of other products in their pipeline. Buyout by a major pharma would be no surprize.

prebuy2 & 50>200

The company has made steady progress toward approval for its smallpox drug for which there is no competition. I expect it to triple within 2 years.

LMS= AA* 1%50 = AorN

A medical insurance policy against the agents of bio terrorism.

A little gloomy background:
Several factors contribute to the concern about the use of smallpox as a biological weapon:

-There is no treatment for the disease
-30 out of 100 people who contract smallpox die
-Since routine smallpox immunization ceased in the United States in 1972 and in all other countries by 1983, the global population is extremely vulnerable to the disease. Much of the world’s population has never been vaccinated or was vaccinated so long ago that immunity to smallpox has waned.
-There is no U.S. Food and Drug Aministration (FDA) licensed antiviral treatment for smallpox. The protease inhibitor SIGA-246 (SIGA Technologies, Inc.) was awarded orphan drug status by the FDA in December 2006 and is currently undergoing clinical trials.

Current developments:
1.) Department of Health and Human Services issued a presolicitation to procure a smallpox antiviral drug that will be added to the Strategic National Stockpile. The request for proposal will seek to procure 1.7 million courses of treatment and may also seek offers to procure as many as 12 million courses.
2.) The United States Government contemplates the award of a five-year, firm-fixed-price contract for medical countermeasures that can specifically provide treatment courses for symptomatic individuals exposed to smallpox. The contract award resulting from this solicitation will have an estimated award date of September 2009.
3.) Wheels in motion to address supply to Europe as well.
4.) Up-Up and away!

Trying out some short term momentum screens based on technicals

A huge explosion past $8.00 tp $10 then long term another GILD or TEVA, based on the compounds they have against Viral infections.

on the verge

WATCH THE STOCK IT WILL BE A HOME RUN!

Only entity really making any headway in biodefense/emerging ID medical product development.

ST-246 is clearly a winner and will be acquired by Bioshield eventually

In a conference call on the 15th of November, SIGA's spokesperson mentioned the expectation for a $100,000,000 order from BARDA (Project Bioshield), and that that order would not be the last order, but the first in a series of orders.

SIGA has about 33,000,000 shares outstanding, so on a basic level that 100 million would mean about $3.30 per share. Based on this contract alone, SIGA will be valued at about $25-40 per share. Based on other contracts that are pending, such as Department of Defense and international sales, share price could EASILY exceed this estimate, possibly as early as 2008. Also, the company is in a EXTREMELY healthy position to be acquired by a large biotech or pharm.

SIGA is one of my core long-term small cap holdings!

Great product. Has been making a run the last month. Just needs news.

They already cured a child infected from a soldier's vaccine when all FDA approved products failed and the boy was close to death. Thier anti viral ST-246 eradicated the virus and the near death child has been fully recovered, thus under the Homeland Security emergency act will oplace an order for millions of doses to treat people who are contra indicated for the vaccine and anyone who has an adverse reaction to the vaccine. ST-246 can also be used instead of the vaccine to protect people if an oubreak occurs.