Sirius XM Radio (SIRI)
A satellite radio provider in the United States which currently broadcast a number of channels of programming to listeners across the country.
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eesh. anyone got gauze? catching this falling knife has left me bleeding out...getting tired. maybe i'll just take a nap right here...
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Finally merged. 1-2 years of shaking out the details and aligning the management teams before this thing takes off. combining debts and leveraging assets with XM was the final selling point. satellite radio is not going away
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it can't go much lower before the second largest american radio broadcasting company turns around.
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This is an experimental portfolio consisting of small-cap or larger picks that have recently entered the $1.50-3.00 range (favoring the low end), with the theory being that most stocks entering this range are not going to stay there unless they've been there for a while already.
... and the first pick for this portfolio? Come on down, SIRIUS-XM! Make the merger happen, or die trying!!
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Sirius XM Radio will now see higher gains over the longer term. It's in the public's hand's carry satellite radio into the horizon from here. I highly suggest investing fun money as a long term play. Stay long and enjoy the benefits, but beware a possible near term reverse split.
J.P. Germanics
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Iver sold. With the merger and future potential, it is a great opportunity. Watch for possible alliances, which will also help this company.
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Clearly there are some challenges with how to profitably run this business. As a consumer I am quite happy to pony up $7-10/month for commercial-free broadcasting that caters to my tastes in ways traditional radio (HD included) have long since abandoned. I'm fairly confident that there will be a place for satellite radio for years to come given it's geographical reach and breadth of content. Profits may be a fair bit down the road, but my money's on them getting there and generating a nice return.
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Finally, the merger is a done deal. Now this newly formed company can start to recoup some losses, turn a profit, and take down terrestrial radio like we all know they will.
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Merger will drive stock price up, squezzing out shorts.
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A bit oversold. Not a good long term buy, however.
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Dead Cat Bounce Play
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Although a new stock offering is by no means good news for stock holders, a 1.50 a share is a market over reaction. With both XM and SIRI posting smaller losses, and now merged, this company's assets are worth more than the 1.50 a share their currently fetching.
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Once that merger is well along this stock will explode
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WONDER OPPORTUNITY. I KNOW. I USE THE SERVICE AND IT IS EXCELLANT. AS WELL AS OWNING A LARGE GROUP OF SHARES.
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Sirius and XM merging changes the game in the Satellite arena. Just as many people said there wouldn't be anyone who would willingly pay for TV, many are saying people won't pay for Radio. Karmazin is a fantastic CEO, and I believe many years from now Sirius/XM will be in fantastic shape.
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With the official Merger approval eminent, the long-term prospects of the company appear to be significant, especially in light of the estimated $400MM cost savings. While I expect a high-degree of short term-volatility, the overall trend should be positive over the next year. With approximately 17MM customers (and if satisfied with service, marketers), the potential for growth is great and should see a strong upswing once the interoperable receivers come on line by mid- to-late next year.
This stock is not for the faint of heart, and should be left for your "fun money" portfolio. However, for those willing to jump in and have a long-term horizon, the benefits should be great.
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With sirius and xm coming together this is one penny stock that has the potential to turn a %1000 profit over the long haul. (can someone say monopoly?)
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Even without the merger Sirius appears to be the stronger of the two companies and does have the content to survive in this market. Losses will continue to narrow as with all ventures of this nature, upfront costs are always going to be high.
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merger is now
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Perhaps in the long run Siri and XMSR may be ultimate failed businesses due to extreme competition with other tech beasts, but you cannot yet predict the outcome or results of a merger between the current satellite duopoly. The reason the FCC has deliberated for so long (Since Feb 2007) is because they want to prevent a monopoly over the current market. One major reason (though there are dozens of other reasons) a company enjoys success is because it has found a niche in the market or has major control of the industry market. Since a merger would produce a so-called monopoly, the new company would definitely have a fighting chance at a comeback, granted it can somehow produce a product/service that people are willing to pay for. Regardless of what people think, the shareholders have anticipated this merger for about a year and a half and are still extremely eager to see this merger through. It is quite possible that many shareholders' feelings for SIRI has been spurned by the FCC's incapability to make a final decision despite both companies losing millions of dollars in lost time.
In short, while SIRI may or may not make gains or hold out in the long term, it will definitely see some great percentage jumps in the near future IF this merger can be approved with conditions not rendering it useless. Jonathan Andelstein, one opponent of media mergers, is about to jump the fence and be the third winning vote IF the companies can agree to certain conditions (six year cap contracts; see MSN news about Andelstein and SIRI). Some analysts are speculating that the merger will be completed by the end of this month - July.
One carefully scrutinizing the movement of SIRI over the past four or five days can see that this is valid. Track the five day intraday chart on Sirius Satellite (ticker SIRI) and you will notice that on July 15, 2008, the stock's low for the day was about $2.00 per share. Since whispers and other news about potential merger agreements have surfaced, the stock is up nearly 15% in a mere four days with almost 9% due directly to the news of Andelstein's new offer. Now imagine if the merger was announced complete in the middle of the coming week...IMO, I'm comfortable with predicting another 30%, placing a share price of around $2.95-$3.02. Shareholders will recapture the lost money due to 'negligence' of the FCC. I look for resistance at or around $3.20 in the next thirty days (granted the merger is approved by month's end). Like the bank 'failures' of the past week, there is some good money to be made here on news alone.

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