Sirius Xm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

A leading provider of satellite radio, Sirius XM Radio broadcasts channels ranging from Springsteen to Pavarotti, from Disney to Stern, from Nascar to Oprah.

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Member Avatar anitj1 (< 20) Submitted: 5/1/2015 11:37:56 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.92 SIRI Score: -2.97

should able to get more subscribers.

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Member Avatar AnsgarJohn (98.47) Submitted: 4/23/2015 11:43:59 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.93 SIRI Score: -3.39

TMFPencils and John Malone? Little homework done.

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Member Avatar tipsung (95.81) Submitted: 4/2/2015 12:58:27 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.90 SIRI Score: -4.85

Should hit $5 by end of March 2016

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Member Avatar TMFBuck (86.58) Submitted: 3/18/2015 6:07:35 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.94 SIRI Score: -3.93

A good business with scale now that the two players merged. They should continue to add customers at a nice clip as people replace their older cars.

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Member Avatar TMFPencils (99.83) Submitted: 2/26/2015 2:01:03 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.88 SIRI Score: -1.59

I'd really written off Sirius XM as a legitimate company until a friend of mine nudged me to look deeper into it. I was surprised to find some very appealing traits with the business. My research here is ongoing but here are a few initial thoughts of why I think Sirius XM will be a long-term market outperformer:

** A wide moat in satellite radio. Sirius XM is virtually the only provider of satellite radio. These satellites cost hundreds of millions of dollars to build and deploy, so I doubt the company will see significant competition anytime soon. The company's moat is also extended through its relationships with every major U.S. automaker, helping Sirius XM radios get into 70% of new vehicles produced today.

** Sirius is much more than music streaming. The company has a strong and growing portfolio of exclusive content: sports, talk shows (Howard Stern, of course, and now Ellen), news, weather, and more. Content is king, and Sirius XM is dominating audio content and has a strong position over pure music-streaming services like Pandora and Spotify.

** Subscribers are happy. Sirius XM has more than 27M subscribers and a churn rate of only 1.9%. Sirius XM is a low-CapEx business (once the satellites are built and deployed), so each new subscriber quickly adds to the company's EBITDA and free cash flow production (FCF exceeded $1 billion in 2014).

** Liberty Media's influence is still in the early stages. Liberty Media took majority control of Sirius XM in 2013 and made some dramatic shifts: it stacked Sirius XM's board of directors with media heavyweights (leaders from ESPN, DirecTV, Microsoft and GoPro, Discovery Communications, as well as three Liberty directors/executives, among others), started buying back loads of stock ($4.2 billion in stock has been bought back since 2013), and pushed Sirius XM to look for other areas to utilize its spectrum and satellite radios beyond audio programming in the coming years.

** Toward that end, Sirius XM is investing more heavily in connected car technology that will complement its current services nicely, and the company is also in a prime position for this trend toward connected cars given its current relationships with U.S. automakers.

** The number of Sirius XM-enabled vehicles in the U.S. is projected to grow from roughly 70 million in 2014 to 120 million by 2019. That opens the door for more subscribers (and much more cash) for Sirius XM. It's a winning formula that shouldn't slow down anytime soon.

** The valuation is very reasonable (and arguably cheap). The P/FCF multiple sits at approximately 20. Because of share repurchases, FCF per share has grown even faster than the company's fast FCF production. I expect FCF per share to grow at a pace of at least 15%-20% annually over the next 3-5 years. I believe this will drive annualiz returns for investors of 12%-15% in the coming years.

Just a few notes, but I really like what I see here. This is an opportunity I overlooked up to this point, but think there is still a lot of value in Sirius XM today. Outperform.

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Member Avatar MotleyMFG (< 20) Submitted: 10/21/2014 8:43:21 AM : Underperform Start Price: $3.32 SIRI Score: -4.37

Leadership in company since Liberty Media takeover has taken focus off strategic development. Lawsuits (Turtles ) are now a potential momentum killer. Suspect a rise in Shorts and a pump and dump over the next few months.

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Member Avatar MrMighty (96.90) Submitted: 9/19/2014 11:10:56 AM : Underperform Start Price: $3.64 SIRI Score: +0.37

I just don't see how it can keep up with the S&P 500.

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Member Avatar colddrink73 (88.74) Submitted: 9/16/2014 10:11:25 PM : Underperform Start Price: $3.59 SIRI Score: -0.80

As cell phones with streaming abilities and internet radio stations become the norm Siri will see problems.

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Member Avatar Veridicta (< 20) Submitted: 8/9/2014 8:32:20 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.23 SIRI Score: +7.60

This is a cash machine and the company has a robust stock buy back program.

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Member Avatar wheresmysailboat (23.97) Submitted: 7/13/2014 12:19:22 PM : Underperform Start Price: $3.40 SIRI Score: -4.97

I have a brand new car with a SIRI/XM receiver and I cannot access the premium channels (which is the only reason to have satellite radio). It is actually easier to access the SIRI/XM app on my phone and bluetooth it into the car, but at that point I can listen to whatever I want for much cheaper anyway.

Even if I could access the premium content easier, the company has shown zero skill with talent management. The company pays celebrities millions of dollars to use their name on a channel, while the celebrity puts in a maximum of two weeks of work into the channel for an entire year. Additionally, they fired some of their best talent for something he did in his personal life, even though this product is supposed to be uncensored.

I am in my early thirties and I don't know anyone my age or younger that pays for this product. The bottom line is, this technology is seriously outdated and I am actually a little embarrassed to have it in my car. Everyone I know has the "cord cutting" mentality and as young people get out of their student loans and start buying new cars, they could care less if it comes with satellite radio. If I sell my car in 10 years, I fully expect the new buyer to look at my satellite receiver as I would look at a car from the 1980's with a corded phone in it- a fancy at the time, but completely unnecessary accessory.

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Member Avatar GoLiatH25 (< 20) Submitted: 6/23/2014 3:52:33 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.42 SIRI Score: +3.23

With NFL season coming up and fantasy football players on a rise, this should drive up sales since there's an immediate need to be well informed while on the road.

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Member Avatar drbry64 (< 20) Submitted: 1/19/2014 12:11:14 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.70 SIRI Score: -11.43

Love listening to it in the car.

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Member Avatar tobywan (44.87) Submitted: 1/15/2014 2:38:37 PM : Underperform Start Price: $3.52 SIRI Score: +10.14

I'm stuck between wanting to think this company will do well in the future. They did manage to stop the civil war that threatened to end Sirius and XM altogether. They do provide music for just about every taste. They do market the hell out of themselves through new vehicle promotions and then follow up subscription discounts after the trial period. Despite all the good I'm skeptical of how long satelitte radio can continue to charge a fee. Standard AM/FM radio is subsidised by local companies and ad placement, SiriusXM claimed $1.15B net receivables in 2012. There were about 22million subscribers that year. I'll assume that each forking out a range between $5-$10 a month on average due to discounts and incentives. A conservative estimate becomes $5/Month = $60/Year x 22,000,000 subcribers = $1.32B. There is an obvious flaw in the assumptions, but not enough to discount the fact that Sirius' revenue is entirely subscription based.

I'm illustrating that point because I had SiriusXM free for a year, I liked it, I got it for another 6 months at $29.99...then I cancelled it. If I can play pandora or stream music through bluetooth and auxillory cables, or transfer music to a hard-drive (options that pretty much all new vehicles come standard with), then why fork out the $14.49/month? I think that the subscription plugs will continue for another year or two but in time those subs will transfer to spotify, pandora, and other music choices

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Member Avatar YoungNGunnin2 (< 20) Submitted: 1/9/2014 6:22:44 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.82 SIRI Score: -14.92

Satellite radio? I like radio waves coming from space better than sitting in my neighbhorhood. We aren't in the stone age any more people. Howard Stern...Shade 45 - Eminem's radio station??? Where else are you going to hear brand new music with ACTUAL DJs that don't play commercials or the same garbage every day. You should be ashamed of letting commercials ruin your trek to work! Sirius needs to push its station on ALL new vehicles packages, cd players, iphones an androids. Truck & delivery drivers UPS Pace and whatnot all have these in their vehicles. EFFF FM yo

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Member Avatar BillM4322 (< 20) Submitted: 1/6/2014 11:20:17 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.81 SIRI Score: -15.62

new car sales on upswing

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Member Avatar prstout (43.66) Submitted: 12/17/2013 7:52:41 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.43 SIRI Score: -6.96

Sell-off looks over done.

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Member Avatar bladerunner (62.14) Submitted: 12/17/2013 2:57:49 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.47 SIRI Score: -8.43

Only game in town and good room for additional market share. Offered more and more in new automobiles and as that industry improves SIRI should benefit

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Member Avatar L8starter (84.95) Submitted: 12/9/2013 2:08:48 PM : Underperform Start Price: $3.66 SIRI Score: +12.21

As cell coverage, smart phones and wired cars expand, I don't see subscription satellite radio coming out on top. I think wireless competitors, many free, will constrain growth.

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Member Avatar TMFRoyal (98.00) Submitted: 11/24/2013 10:54:45 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.85 SIRI Score: -17.44

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/13/im-buying-stock-and-options-on-sirius.aspx

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Member Avatar wired4me (30.41) Submitted: 11/1/2013 12:56:08 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.78 SIRI Score: -19.18

This stock has outperformed the s&p consistently over the last 3 yrs.Comparing P/E ratio / Return on equity (TTM) (%) to close peers and stock price and potential growth given Liberty Medias' money, guidance and stock buy back; which would you bet your money on. Don't forget for now, Sirius has only tapped the US and Canadian Markets.
P/E ratio / Return on equity (TTM) (%)
SIRI $50.79 /17.86
UA $58.89 /17.18
WFM $43.50 /14.62

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