Salix Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. (SLXP)

Strong Move Up Likely on Volatile Stock

Near term catalyst - Positive results

It is an unintentional nonprofit. Current spike in share price seems to be hype driven and is likely to revert back to performance-based value in the $6 to $7 range.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/136379-fda-clinical-trial-calendar-updates-wye-svnt-amrn-isis-slxp-somx?source=feed

I'm nervous that Celldex will slip below the 100M threshold and I'll never be able to catch them again. I'm pretty confident they're headed nowhere so even if I eat dirt on this in the short-term the pick will eventually pay off and I'll be score leader. Here's my prior underperform pitch - nothing has changed:

Celldex has a lot of potential on paper but does not inspire confidence with their behavior. Whether it's the strange merger between a vaccine developer and an oncology biotech, the confusing name changes, or data mining failed trials, they have labeled themselves in my mind as a long-term failure. The most recent source of irritation is the decision to change a planned controlled phase IIb/III study of CDX-110 to a single-arm phase II study, apparently because patients were withdrawing from the study after being randomized to the control arm. Admittedly I haven't looked into this sufficiently to determine exactly how patients knew they were in the control arm of a supposedly randomized controlled study, but I am amazed at how the company appears to have blithely set themselves back an entire level of development. The market doesn't seem to care much either, rewarding the stock with a double.

Negative cash flow, negative ROA, negative ROI, negative margins, negative me.

Their stock took a big hit a few months back when the FDA asked for more data on one of their drug trials. They have some drugs in their pipeline (stage 3 trials) that will cause the stock to recover as long as some of them pass. Undervalued at the current price.

Over-reaction to FDA asking for more data after other problems. There have been too many high-profile drug safety stories in the media and it is logical to expect it will cause the FDA to be more cautious in handing out approvals. Solid insider purchasing and the recent trading pattern seems very stable and moving upward in a way that is much less erratic than seen in many biotech stocks.

Approval will help offset the genericization of COLAZAL. Also, Inflammatory diseases need better media coverage and consumer education. There is huge potential for improving quality of life for cronic conditions that can, without effective long-term management, shorten life expectancy. This could be a good company to monitor in that space.

several months or more..took a big hit in Jan08, slowly gaining back..Yahoo screener pick

Good Management and moving in the right direction

Highly undervaled, great bargain in long run.

All in the tract

Favorable risk / reward profile. Comparative analysis:
http://f1.grp.yahoofs.com/v1/8EF3R8IApDlbI1SUEwj9ACPoO-N506V3BymU7tTVdt21_4PxNLCn-oJ6KY_K8iQ5Z-yn652fM-b9S1MpHcVrFg/VOps/VOps%2007.11.30.xls

this stock killed me since i bought it at 16. the products are going nowhere. they lack luster. usually good stocks don't drop like this.

Forbes article "True Believer Stocks"

Valuation at this level is good. Should be a 20 dollar stock in 2008. Institutional ownership is 105% according to Yahoo Finance... If the institutions are that confident, why aren't you?

This stock meets my criteria for a long-term buy: great management and a good price.

OsmoPrep, Salix's new bowel cleansing product, is a true Rule Breaker. Previous prep products for colonoscopies have involved drinking a large volume of disgusting liquid (sometimes a gallon). OsmoPrep is an all-pill prep. It will be widely adopted, and not only will it pick up huge market share, it will expand the market. By making the prep easier, more people will get colonoscopies. The return of White House Spokesman Tony Snow's colon cancer will also highlight the need for the procedure. In light of this, Salix's earnings will explode -- not to mention their other products.