Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF)
The Company is a geographically diversified builder of single-family attached and detached homes and constructs homes within a range of price and size targeting a range of homebuyers.
Recs
TMFBuck
(81.28)
Submitted: 11/6/2009 3:25:39 PM :
Start Price:
$3.36
SPF Score:
+7.66
Premature housing recovery based on season uptick. I'll be happy to take the downside from here.
Recs
mrolfers
(74.07)
Submitted: 11/5/2009 2:53:40 PM :
Start Price:
$3.51
SPF Score:
+11.95
Exhibit A would be the fact that the average new home has been on the market for 12.9 months. Exhibit B is that we have about 2-3 years of existing home sales just to absorb the vacancies that exist. According to T2, about 6% of all homes built this decade are vacant.
Exhibit C is that the home builders themselves have too much debt and too much inventory relative to their thin equity cushions. The home builders are in the position of trying to hold up a bowling ball with a sheet of paper...in the rain.
Lastly, the home builder stocks are almost universally expensive on a price-to-book basis." (NVR, SPF and KBH have the highest )
- quoted from The Daily Reckoning newsletter 11/5/09
Recs
EclecticRecluse
(75.31)
Submitted: 11/5/2009 2:26:53 AM :
Start Price:
$3.47
SPF Score:
+11.93
Weak and Deteriorating Cashflow
Recs
BicaChica
(79.58)
Submitted: 10/30/2009 5:04:04 PM :
Start Price:
$3.03
SPF Score:
+0.14
fransgeraedts
Recs
DarthMaul09
(98.14)
Submitted: 10/23/2009 12:04:52 AM :
Start Price:
$3.43
SPF Score:
+7.05
I hope to catch this stock on the pop before investors realize that this short-term stimulus will be like the cash for clunkers program, resulting in a limited sales increase now followed by lower sales in the months to come.
Recs
lamsonb
(< 20)
Submitted: 10/18/2009 10:19:28 PM :
Start Price:
$3.53
SPF Score:
-10.25
Worked in housing for past 20 years. All the SPF tracks in the Inland Empire of Southern Calif have retooled their house size developments and sold off most of their inventory. This area was the major write off area for SPF and they are now building for purchase with minimal inventory. They have written down most of their inventory and land and from the last quarter numbers, we are seeing positive results going forward. There is nothing left on the down side to write off and cash positions are solid for operations. Lower interest rates and another stimulous will pull them up faster, but even without stimulous disire for nice affordable home exists.
Recs
pjani06
(98.23)
Submitted: 10/9/2009 2:06:02 AM :
Start Price:
$3.51
SPF Score:
+12.02
per floridabuilder
Recs
stockfreak1
(< 20)
Submitted: 10/8/2009 3:38:36 PM :
Start Price:
$3.56
SPF Score:
+13.29
short the pop
Recs
jstegma
(99.68)
Submitted: 8/13/2009 6:36:03 PM :
Start Price:
$1.68
SPF Score:
-61.41
The housing turnaround just keeps looking farther and farther away. At this point I'm pretty sure that it is beyond the lifetime of SPF and some of the other builders. They simply won't live to see it. So I'll suffer along with my red thumb on this stock waiting for it to die. It will eventually.
Recs
jesusfreakinco
(31.21)
Submitted: 7/22/2009 3:08:18 PM :
Start Price:
$2.90
SPF Score:
+5.35
Housing has not bottomed. Lots more of foreclosures to hit the market. Joblessness will persist. Interest rates likely to be higher.
Recs
OtherOracleOfOMA
(99.56)
Submitted: 6/11/2009 7:27:34 PM :
Start Price:
$2.39
SPF Score:
-15.93
Interest rates...
Recs
talegaboy
(43.97)
Submitted: 5/26/2009 6:55:48 PM :
Start Price:
$2.44
SPF Score:
+9.39
housing and this stock make come back, big bounce on spf
Recs
legacyboy
(< 20)
Submitted: 5/4/2009 10:52:44 PM :
Start Price:
$2.18
SPF Score:
+23.77
Housing will be on the rise next 4 years, with a peak about 3.5 out. home and land values will push write offs to profit by second quarter next year.
Recs
MotleyGulibles
(97.80)
Submitted: 4/28/2009 2:00:43 AM :
Start Price:
$1.95
SPF Score:
+32.95
Real estate stabilizes and this takes off...
Recs
firetiger77
(26.93)
Submitted: 4/17/2009 3:21:33 PM :
Start Price:
$1.72
SPF Score:
-58.82
specbear rec
Recs
SIP08ISU
(92.62)
Submitted: 4/16/2009 3:17:15 AM :
Start Price:
$1.62
SPF Score:
+67.62
Standard pacific corp is making a strong comeback and will be doing so over the next few days to a fortnight.
Recs
Netteligent09
(< 20)
Submitted: 4/15/2009 7:26:02 PM :
Start Price:
$1.62
SPF Score:
-67.62
Housing market demand is low for the next 24 months to digest its inventory. SPF stucks with its current projects.
Recs
Recs
cashsage
(87.44)
Submitted: 2/9/2009 4:45:38 PM :
Start Price:
$1.64
SPF Score:
-64.83
SPF has an illiquid balance sheet. It is also one of the most loss making companies.
Recs
floridabuilder2
(99.65)
Submitted: 2/6/2009 4:00:48 PM :
Start Price:
$1.75
SPF Score:
-53.68
SPF had the opportunity to buy TOA assets for nothing... zilcho... through the bankruptcy courts... yet it appears this isn't going to come to fruition....
you cannot buy assets cheaper than through bankruptcy... this is a big tell....
and why aren't the other publics buying the assets of TOA? Because they weren't positioned to do it like SPF/MP... plus, the other publics will buy assets piecemeal.. so there is an unwillingness to take all the assets of TOA
One cannot equate other publics inability and unwillingness to buying all of TOAs assets the same way as SPF.....
I would close this pick to an outperform if SPF closed on TOA
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