Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF)
The Company is a geographically diversified builder of single-family attached and detached homes and constructs homes within a range of price and size targeting a range of homebuyers.
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Shorting all almost all Household goods (durables) and all homebuilders. with high unemployment, how do you expect people to buy houses or hold onto their mortgages? Because of tax credit, numbers are looking decent, but we'll be back to normal in no time... Short this !!!
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Premature housing recovery based on season uptick. I'll be happy to take the downside from here.
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Exhibit A would be the fact that the average new home has been on the market for 12.9 months. Exhibit B is that we have about 2-3 years of existing home sales just to absorb the vacancies that exist. According to T2, about 6% of all homes built this decade are vacant.
Exhibit C is that the home builders themselves have too much debt and too much inventory relative to their thin equity cushions. The home builders are in the position of trying to hold up a bowling ball with a sheet of paper...in the rain.
Lastly, the home builder stocks are almost universally expensive on a price-to-book basis." (NVR, SPF and KBH have the highest )
- quoted from The Daily Reckoning newsletter 11/5/09
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Weak and Deteriorating Cashflow
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fransgeraedts
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I hope to catch this stock on the pop before investors realize that this short-term stimulus will be like the cash for clunkers program, resulting in a limited sales increase now followed by lower sales in the months to come.
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per floridabuilder
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short the pop
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The housing turnaround just keeps looking farther and farther away. At this point I'm pretty sure that it is beyond the lifetime of SPF and some of the other builders. They simply won't live to see it. So I'll suffer along with my red thumb on this stock waiting for it to die. It will eventually.
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Interest rates...
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specbear rec
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Housing market demand is low for the next 24 months to digest its inventory. SPF stucks with its current projects.
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SPF has an illiquid balance sheet. It is also one of the most loss making companies.
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SPF had the opportunity to buy TOA assets for nothing... zilcho... through the bankruptcy courts... yet it appears this isn't going to come to fruition....
you cannot buy assets cheaper than through bankruptcy... this is a big tell....
and why aren't the other publics buying the assets of TOA? Because they weren't positioned to do it like SPF/MP... plus, the other publics will buy assets piecemeal.. so there is an unwillingness to take all the assets of TOA
One cannot equate other publics inability and unwillingness to buying all of TOAs assets the same way as SPF.....
I would close this pick to an outperform if SPF closed on TOA
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This company may survive to 2010 and make a come back but as it stands it is losing ground badly on fundamentals. Generally, is a weak hold to moderate sell. It is of note, builders are suffering from collapse of housing bubble but SPF is not well set for long-term slump. If this cycle goes beyond 2010 it is unlikely this company can survive at all.
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I think this stock will test its lows again and they are too weighted in markets that are still crashing hard.
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I have 5+ years time frame on this stock, but it won't be around that long.

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