Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF)

Worked in housing for past 20 years. All the SPF tracks in the Inland Empire of Southern Calif have retooled their house size developments and sold off most of their inventory. This area was the major write off area for SPF and they are now building for purchase with minimal inventory. They have written down most of their inventory and land and from the last quarter numbers, we are seeing positive results going forward. There is nothing left on the down side to write off and cash positions are solid for operations. Lower interest rates and another stimulous will pull them up faster, but even without stimulous disire for nice affordable home exists.

housing and this stock make come back, big bounce on spf

Housing will be on the rise next 4 years, with a peak about 3.5 out. home and land values will push write offs to profit by second quarter next year.

Real estate stabilizes and this takes off...

Standard pacific corp is making a strong comeback and will be doing so over the next few days to a fortnight.

short term to long term pick.

Graham near or Below NCAV bucket (someone elses screen - not my analysis)

rally picks

At this point i feel it comes down to staying power they have fought off bankruptcy. They have a name and they have at this moment a cheap stock. With the home crisis a lot of the smaller companies won't make it. If they can hang on long enough to fill the holes created bu the lost of these smaller companies they can bounce back (hopefully smarter this time around.) and I'll be the 1st to admit this one counts as one of those faith stocks... you either have it or you don't.

SPF is riddled with debt, and it currently has a negative cash flow. However, SPF is a prime builder in CA, and with the small beniefits to them (firs and other disasters that will require rebuilding of peoples homes) I think they will be able to hold off untill the market turns around for them. The housing crisis is definatley not permanent, there will always be the need for homes and loans.

I would reccomend getting with companies that run tight ships in the mortgage markets and home building markets, cause when they start to turn around, and they will, large profits will be made. I don't believe SPF has hit bottom yet so I am still waiting a bit longer to buy. Eventually I think they will be a big player again.

m2cents

When will the housing crisis end? I'll bet it wont be until 2010. This stock will be taken over by then when it finally reaches $0.75

Have we found the bottom yet? I doubt it. However, I strongly agree with floridabuilder that *somebody* has emerge from this mess, and they will do so in a formidable position going forward, with virtually no well-capitalized competition to worry about. A quick scan of the SPF financials shows me a builder suffering through a tough time, but still maintaining positive cash flow. I can only conclude that this bodes well for the company, as everybody else around them struggles to keep creditors at bay.

CAPS Rating: 1 Star [277 outperforms / 315 underperforms]

An infusion of 530 million can't hurt and hopefully with help bring Standard Pacific back

more investment firms will buy in at the depressed homebuilder prices

"You ought to be able to explain why you’re taking the job you’re taking, why you’re making the investment you’re making, or whatever it may be. And if it can’t stand applying pencil to paper, you’d better think it through some more. And if you can’t write an intelligent answer to those questions, don’t do it."

treat this as a call option as standard pacific is not going bankrupt. Once the cash infusion comes in and this stock is no longer going bankrupt it will recover handsomely. Also this stock is tradint 0.20 of book value which is pretty insane. This stock will significantly outperform the S&P in the years to come if it survives. With an estimated eps of 2.30 once the housing market recovers, it means that the stock will trade at least at 17 dollars a share by 2012.

housing market will come back strong

Buying low on homebuilders

looks good to me