UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS)

Eventually, smart people will be taking profits in this rotten economy. This rally is as dumb as Bush sending troops to Iraq in the first place. This rally is as dumb buying the day the dow hit 14300. This rally is as dumb as Barrack Obama's 3.4 trillion dollar budget.......This rally is as dumb as Jim Cramer.... No problems have been fixed only to have a band-aid put over a hole in a 12 in water pipe.

Non-residential construction has slown to a snails pace. Take a look out your window and tell me how many for lease, for rent and for sale buildings you see! If you can't drive to the mall, then stores go out of business and that means no big rents for the Mall Reits...Nuff said.

Commercial real estate is a disaster. Banks are not lending..The best banks may do will be restructure paltry amounts of outstanding CRE loans..That's the best case scenario. Tenancy will continue to fall in malls across the country. Renegotiating be landlords will be forced due to cotenancy clauses which will permit retail chains to renegotiate lower rents. A bleak scenario for CRE.

I called it exactly right the last two times, bouncing in and out of this pick. Let's see if I can do it again. As I see it, this pick (one of a collection of Short ETFs) is due for a rise as the rest of the market sours on Geithner's plans. The market is still well-overvalued, and needs to fall 25% more (down to about 5500 on the DJIA) to even begin to come in line with the traditional P/E ratios of bear markets. It's not going to fall all that way in one fell swoop (hopefully not, for that would really freak out those who've not been paying attention), but I do anticipate it oscillating and trending downwards. Until that "bottom" is finally reached, however, I intend to make some points (and some money on limited ETF selections) during this time.

I may be a little early on this one (just like the last time I played this swing), but from what I'm seeing in the Slow Stochastics regarding this ETF, it is due for a turnaround, a rise from this point. I'm hoping this will happen in the next 2-3 weeks, if not sooner.

To me, it's clear from the Slow Stochastics of some big ETFs that they are due for a turn-around. Take a look at TZA, ERY, BGZ, QID, SDD, SDK, RWM, SFK, and SJF, to name a few. All are below the 20% "oversold" line, some below the 10% line, meaning they are more likely to rise than fall further, and soon. The "Williams%R" indicator, which leads the Slow Stochs by a few days, is showing even greater "oversold" tendencies, and in some cases is starting to head back up. Geithner's plans released on March 22, 2009, certainly put a hold on this ETF rising, but that hold will be only temporary, as I see it.

Again, like I wrote last time, if investing for the masses is anything, it's psychological. So, I think we'll see a general fall in the major indices starting next week as despair once again begins to settle in on Joe Investor and people realize that Geithner's plan really only help out the banks at the taxpayers' expense. This downturn should run for 2-5 weeks, depending upon what actions the Fed takes (like putting a ban on short selling again, which would not surprise me). That sort of ban would weaken my case for these ETFs, but it's not going to stop the freight train that is coming down the tracks.

Finally, let me be absolutely clear: I still believe we are definitely NOT at THE bottom. We have at least another 25% to fall:
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=137397&t=01009471911616523983

If you do not have time to watch your purchases over the next 2-5 weeks, don't play the game. I have a feeling it's going to be very volatile and too risky for most people (probably including myself, if I had any sense at all). Good luck!

When the first time home buyer credit expires, the real estate market will tumble quickly again. This will help push us along into our second dip of recession.

The buyers will dry up. Why? What about great deals on foreclosures?

Sure, existing home owners could put in offers on a foreclosure, but they can not have a sale of home contingency. So who is going to buy their current home??

In a normal market, when a home sold, that seller could take their money and put it right back into buying another home from someone else... and so the chain would continue.

Not with foreclosures. When they sell, they do nothing but injure the market and take a buyer away from home owners who have been good with their finances and have paid their bills.

Before years end.... the real estate market will be it's coldest ever!

The commercial real estate market in my area of the world is beginning to look like a slow motion train wreck. There will be lots of casualties when this over. I think in the next 18 months the commercial RE market is going to get smashed and smashed good. REITs, malls, strip shopping centers, hotels, casinos, you name it... killed.

And I don't think there's a government bailout for these folks in the cards.

Anyway, this is a double inverse of the SP real estate market IYR (I think). You can buy today around 57 or so. It may up and down a bit between 50 and 60 but I look for it to hit 100 or so in 12 to 18 months.

My timing might not be perfect here, but this is at a low enough price for it to be worthwhile when it inevitably runs again.

Next shoe to drop! Really at 49-56 in a bear market? Got balls?

Because Ultras Suck

US recession; its all a matter of perspectives but with the power of the media behind the hype I am betting on SRS, OIL, and DBA.

The drop in the REIC is not over yet. CRE will get worse this summer.

Beware bulls of the ides of March
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=163806&t=01009449456398254945

hard to pick the bottom on this thing when the market is rallying, but better now than 20 points higher. Exaggerated volatility.

Caps is about accumulating as much points as possible with as much accuracy as possible. The greatest way to bank points in caps is to short the ultrashorts when the market has bottomed. Since shorting an ultrashort gives a negative 10% and the s&p goes up 5% that means you banked a score of 15% if the market goes to 1330 from this level. The oscillator indicates that we are at -2 meaning we almost hit neutral.

Realestate is next

GOIN UP I LIVE IN THIS WORLD SPENDING ON CREDIT WITHOUT A JOB DON"T WORK! TALKIN BOUGHT USA. WHAT FEELS GOOD NOW WILL HOSPITALIZE YOU LATER!

NO LIKEY WHATS COMMIN!

Shorting into the Rally.

will rebound to 50

Below 88.64, SRS, will find a support in 78.99, becoming a wide range to buy and sell between these two points. If the resistance of 88-90 is broken, SRS will be in 100 as fast as it can.