TravelCenters of America LLC (NYSE:TA)

Truck Drivers will steer their business to this best in class of the three way olioglpoly

Great runs in March and April 2013; time for a threepeat!

This company's bottom line is wildly affected by business volume. With apparently good times ahead, leisure travel is expected to at least modestly increase this summer (summer increase + economy outlook increase), which could make profits (and stock price) soar.

Early April 2013 technicals update: Stock price looks to be basing for another upsurge.

Late April 2013 technicals update: Small April surge occurred as predicted. Stock price looks to be basing for another upsurge.

Disclosure: I am long TA (with real money, no less)

Category: R13BRp

P/B less than 1.0
P/S=0.03

PB 0.41, PE 4.48, PS 0.02, ROA growing YoY, LTD

PE Today is 3.92 and company has positive earnings.

Undervalued stock and misunderstood management. TA is taking advantage of the current economic situation to expand through acquisition of distressed outlets, including some held by their own franchisees. Simultaneously they are renovating and updating both their equipment and their facilities. What do they do? They primarily sell diesel fuel but, to quote from their profile, "TravelCenters of America LLC, together with its subsidiaries, operates and franchises travel centers primarily along the United States interstate highway system. It offers diesel fuel and gasoline; operates full service restaurants under the Iron Skillet, Country Pride, Buckhorn Family Restaurants, and Fork in the Road brands; and operates quick serve restaurants primarily under the brand names of Arby's, Burger King, Dunkin' Donuts, Pizza Hut, Popeye's Chicken & Biscuits, Starbuck's Coffee, Subway, and Taco Bell. The company also operates truck repair and maintenance facilities, which offer maintenance and emergency repair and road services ranging from basic services... to specialty services, including diagnostics and repair of air conditioning, air brakes, and electrical systems; and travel and convenience store that provides packaged food and snack items, beverages, non-prescription drug and beauty supplies, batteries, automobile accessories, and music and video products, as well as laundry supplies, clothing, truck accessories, and a selection of electronics. In addition, it provides truck drivers with access to business services, including an information center where drivers can send and receive faxes, overnight mail, and other communications; and a banking desk where drivers can cash checks and receive funds transfers from fleet operators, as well as offers Wi-Fi Internet access, video game room, a laundry area, private showers, a theater or television room, and casino gaming. The company?s customers comprise long haul trucking fleets and their drivers, independent truck drivers, and motorists. As of October 8, 2012,, it operated and franchised 241 travel centers in 41 states and in Canada under the TA and Petro Stopping Center brand names. .."
Note: That's 241 travel centers, not the 161 or so that TMF has listed above. They elected to pay for this expansion by issuing a large block of stocks instead of borrowing. In retrospect, in view of the current low interest rates that might have been a mistake but it was a risk-free approach. They're based in the mid-west and I'm sure they've seen lots of farmers lose everything to debt. Was it unfair to stockholders? Then the insiders also took the hit. All of them own substantial blocks of shares, amounting to 17% of all shares. Go all the way back to 2010 and you'll find only 4 insider sales, 3 of them from the same officer, who still owns three times more than the total of his sales.
Starbucks. beauty supplies, business centers at a truck stop?! And excellent buffets to keep the truckers coming back. This is not the Greasy Spoon Diner truckstop of the past. Look at that profile again. And management maintains tight monitoring of all aspects of each travel station's business. Listen carefully to the last conference call. And they're 'negotiating' for natural gas.
The stock has a history of wide swings in price, both up and down, the largest by far a drop from about 47 in 2007 down to just above 1 (yes, ONE!) about Jan 2008. There was a rally to 11 or so in 2/2011 followed by a drop to 2.5 eight months later. The present price of 4.43 is down from a high of 6 or so in 3/2012. StockCharts P&F indicates a bearish price objective of 1.5.
How low will it go this time? Look:. Price to book 0.36. P/E >4. Cash/share 3.53. Total revenue 7.9B in 2011 vs 4.7B two years earlier. Gross profit 1.0B vs 878. Total assets 1.0B vs 885M. They're putting their money back into the company and that will eventually show up in the stock price, even if it takes the analysts a while to catch on.
Obviously they're very dependent on the overall economy and that may put a squeeze on them for awhile. Even now they are feeling a pinch from the effects of better fuel economy. But the company is positioned to survive and prosper in an adverse economy and to prosper and boom in good times. I've just taken my seat , tightening my belt for the whole ride.

undervalued

ubiquitous....(on every exit so it seems)

Extra: TravelCenters of America LLC (AMEX: TA) is one that was brought to my attention by an investor who presently found me via my other favorite companies. I had to dig to figure out this one because the historicals look terrible! No wonder, the company's management was not fulfilling their fiduciary responsibility. This was all turned around about this time last year and the price surged to over $10. Then the company decided to "SELL" and came in and sold 10,000,000 shares at $5.69. Management is dumb here at TravelCenters of America. That I am sure of. Noting that the company is trading at 1/2 of Book Value and a forward P/E of around 5 for a company that is doing rather well indicates that the market hates management. Target: $8-$11. Outperform.

http://beta.fool.com/bradford86/2012/02/08/whats-it-worth/1796/

I bought TA two years ago at $0.90. Today it is trading at around $5.50 or so. TA is very popular with truckers and travelers. They are a one stop shop for fuel, repairs, food, consumer items, and some have shower and sleep facilities for truckers. As the recovery continues, more goods will be shipped by truck. Subsequently TA's volume will grow commensurately with the improving economy.

charts say up. ! what do I look for? a breakout, within a rising channel.

High Professional Opinion and Price Target

3/5 upthumb criteria

This is a pure value play based on a Seeking Alpha article I read: http://seekingalpha.com/article/259845-travel-center-of-america-fills-the-value-tank?source=TheMotleyFool.

Motley Fool -

We are projecting $80 million of EBITDA and free cash flow of $55 million annually over the next few years.

EV/EBITDA: 1.4x
FCF to EV: 49%

Our near-term price target of $36 assumes an EV/EBITDA of 6.5x

speculating aaoi

Huge run up correction coming. Still undervalued. This is a watchlist entry.

TA has fundamentally improved with the new rent agreement that it enter into with HPT in February. Given improving economy and specifically the transportation sector TA now has secured strong profitability in 2011. The company has reported increasing sales in both fuel and non-fuel items through out 2010. This trend will continue through 2011 and 2012 as the economic recovery takes stronger hold as evident in 4th Quarter numbers in transportation and manufacturing sectors. Look for $2+ in EPS in 2011 which with 10X PE will put the price at $20.