ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+Year Treasury (TBT)

interests rates WILL rise

ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury
seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses and interest income earned on cash and financial instruments, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Lehman 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Index.

interest rates will eventually have to rise

short term is anyone's guess though... I may have to sit on this one for a while

with interest rate ridiculously low, this one is bound to rise when long term interests comes back to its normal line

shorting all ultrashorts, bears, and other "leveraged" funds.

We have probably another 10-15 percent run in this rally but we could easily this EFT pop to 60

Bond bubble go "POP"

interest rates at 0% means TBT can only go up from here when the fed raises rates.

End of Quantitative easing (until round 2 is announced). Thinking this should boost the dollar and cause rates to rise a bit by the end of November.

inflation is coming. protect thyself

money printing and....just pure economy

Interest rates are at historically low levels, they can't go lower than 0%.

Therefore they MUST go up eventually, and when they do it probably won't be good for stocks.

When interest rates go up bond prices go down. Hence, if you believe as I do that interest rates will go up, then you will see that shorting bonds is a smart move.

R

its a 200% leveraged bet that treasuries are going down. treasury bonds are one of the world's most overvalued investments, but considering they also face insatiable global demand, this isn't enough to make me bet that long treasuries will dive.

what IS enough is the fact that the Fed has no direct control over long rates and that bond supply will keep growing. 10-year yields are currently low, much lower than the average yield from the previous 10 years. i find it completely unrealistic to assume a future inflation rate so low as to merit today's 3.4% 10 year yield.

TBT might not move in the coming months, but I think yields will increase over 2010 and TBT's share price will increase with it.

T bond bubble

Inflation, commercial real estate market in poor condition.

Just hedge

long term interest rates will rise

Pretty much no matter what happens, Treasuries must go down...

The Greater Depression: The Sequel That Will More Than Equal.

Follow the likely mode of debt destruction and the USD.

When the USD goes down, the cost of imports, which amounts to almost everything we consume (the CPI), will increase proportionately. At that point, what could the Fed do? Open Market operations, selling Treasuries and mortgage backed securities that nobody wants to touch, or increasing interest rates at a time of crisis? Policy makers are going to opt for defaults and deflation? No, definitely not! Inflation, in this situation, maybe even regardless of the choices of policy makers: the dollars have ALREADY been printed; we just failed to notice because the rest of the world was soaking them all up into a giant... can I say USD recycling “Ponzi Scheme”?

We have a frightening amount of debt; we are underwater at every stratus of society except for the super-rich: households, companies, states, and federal... Like it or not, our situation is similar to the great depression, meaning that our position stands teetering on the tip of an unstable equilibrium; judging from the way trillions are being tossed around, dwarfing the New Deal, and the liquid-dynamic-interdependence of our world, we may have the privilege of witnessing something even "greater". Keep in mind that median incomes have not increased in 30 years... Where did we think we were going with an economy based on the perpetual growth of emaciated consumers jacked up on stims.

There is a limit to how much a fixed population can consume, and in order to keep a Ponzi Scheme going, second derivatives are important, meaning that in order to sustainably cultivate appetite, spending needs to increase at an increasing rate, but it wasn’t, or at least the second derivative was probably approaching zero: for years, we had negative household savings on top of successively record breaking deficits and tax cuts to those that needed it least.

We should be suspicious of nonlinear divergences from fundamentals, from fundamental parallels. It is important to look ahead, but is also important to make sure that what one sees is not automatically more of the same; look for the end game, at least a temporary resting point of equilibrium somewhere in the direction that things are going. I don’t have to be “really smart” to have seen all this coming.... I just ask the right questions and follow systems to their natural conclusions. I was ranting the whole way through 2007/8 that this was going to happen, and I could see the clouds gathering for a long time before that. My criticism has always been that people were using models and heuristics from their very short lives and blindly extrapolating to the future.

Again, look at directions and trends: GDP +4%.... “It is your money! You paid for it! Massive tax cuts to the rich! You never know which of you poor people could become rich in good times like this!” & GDP -4%.... “Stimulate the economy! Here is a little more money for everyone, and again giant tax cuts to the rich so we can buy things to get out of recession!” Again, where did we think we were going? Russia? Brazil? Yes! We were! Only we were trying to keep the cultural myth of the American Dream alive with it. “It is called the American Dream because you have to be asleep to believe it.” --- George Carlin. This dream can only take us one place: into debt. There is no such thing as a free lunch, but we can decide who pays for it... Right now two giants have stepped in: the Treasury, financed by domestic savings or Asian geo-political economics, and the Federal Reserve. Forces clash here: government spending and money printing by the Treasury and Federal Reserve will reduce the willingness of households and sovereign nations to loan us money, at least in our own currency. For a debtor nation like us, that means higher interest rates, inflation, and iff we can muster enough geo-political clout before Asia’s trade dependency diminishes, a gradual, rather than avalanching, decline of the USD and a long, mildly painful structural readjustment of our economy. Thankfully we have monetary tools that were not available the last time around, and the the inherently exponential paradigms of digital and analogue (e.g. biological) engineering progress should assist us in the adjustment. I strongly believe that inflation will result from using modern monetary tools and creditor nations sending USDs home.