ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (ETF) (AMEX:TBT)

Budget deficits + Spiking inflation + Money flowing back into stocks + Treasuries @ all time low will = $$$

LT Treasuries are going to get destroyed once the price bubble pops. Gov cannot borrow and print its way out of a financial crisis.

Good earnings.

treasury bubble

1 - How far down can they go?
2 - How far up can they go?

I'll put some money down that the upside of 2 kills the downside of 1.

I agree with everything in TMFbreakerdave's pitch except the time frame. I think it may take more than 12 months before the tide turns and interest rates skyrocket. I have 2 concerns with this position. 1) the yield for long term bonds seems to eerily track the performance of the S&P. As there are still significant downside risks to the equity market, I would not be surprised to see the yield continue to decline in the short term as fear and panic drive investors to safer positions. However, I believe the supply of long term bonds will ultimately exceed the demand for said bonds at these rates. 2) the US govt will try to move heaven and earth to keep the long term bond rates artificially low in order to service the massive debt created by over-spending and bailout programs. I don't believe their efforts will be successful, but I am concerned that I may not fully comprehend their power to manipulate the long term rates.

The dollar becomes worthless

a follower on this one, but more just so I can keep track...Buffett did say whatever measures are taken to get out of this will be inflationary, but we might have a bout of deflation ahead first which may send this a bit south...we'll all see soon enough, I guess.

Long-term treasury yields are unsustainably low. This ETF moves inversely to the treasury price, so it will move in concert with the yield. In addition to the normal rise in yield when the economy recovers, the government is engaging in a lot of inflationary spending.

Major US Govt Deficit Expansion in 2009, increasing risk that Chinese/Japanese stop buying treasuries...

There are big problems in the country, housing, national debt etc. The odd's of a crash on monday are becoming increasing likely, even though it is a highly unlikely event. I am not doing much trading in my real account... Nothing like an all or nothing bet here on caps...Nobody know's what future earnings or even the equity is for most of the companies in major index's....

Short US 10 year treasuries. !0 year treasuroes are incredibly overvalued. When investors realize that the yield they are receiving is less than inflation, there will be a mass exit. Additionally there is so much supply comming on the market, prices are not sustainable

It´s simple: the government is going to have to issue a lot more debt to pay for everything, unless it starts printing money. I think both are going to happen, so treasury yields have no where to go but down.

The time to be in treasuries was this summer. The time to get out is before inflation hits.

That might not be in the next 6 months. But it is surely coming.

Boring, but easy money. I'll take it in this market.

Inflation = Yields

I'm considering a significant holding in TBT for the long term, but I think it's a bit early to hop on board. I'll take a small position now with the intention to pick up an ever increasing position as it drops further. I plan to be locked into my position by the end of the year.

This fund enjoys the rare advantage of a big upside with a very limited downside.

On one end, as the market establishes a bottom and inflation concerns grow, the Federal Reserve will look to raise rates, which in turn will increase the yield on treasuries (higher yield= lower price= gain for the fund).

On the other hand, if the country somehow plunges into serious financial trouble with the Fed taking on the debt of Freddie and Fannie, there is a possibility that treasuries could be downgraded from AAA. This would also increase yields and provide attractive returns for this fund.

Either way, rates must go up eventually, making this fund guarenteed money in the long run.