Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. (NYSE:TC)
Thompson Creek Metals mines, mills, processes, and markets molybdenum products in Canada and the United States.
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As steel production rises, the need for alloy metals like Molybdenum will increase even if precious metals go soft. I like this miner almost as much as my little Claude Resources.
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The market doesn't believe the gold and copper mine will be completed and gives it zero value.
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Lots of value here still - assets in the ground are not going away, but the stock is being discounted as if they do not exist. Mine development, while admittedly severely over budget is still proceeding at a pace to bring the new mine online in late 2013 early 2014.
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DOOM! DOOOOOOOM!! The world is ending!! Sell all of your junior miners!!! Gold is DEAD!! Silver is DEAD!! Flee for your lives!!!
(as writer quietly buys mining shares in his personal account)
snark off
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Recovery or takeover appear far more probable than continued decline. Target $6
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TC's operating costs have been high due to recent investment in a new mine and due to weak commodity prices. Once the new mine gets up and running, we can expect earnings to increase. Even if it doesn't earn more, being at a steep discount to book value, it is a potential acquisition target.
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If you are waiting around to see how TC is going to close their funding gap or if there will be any more cost overruns on Mt. Milligan you will be too late to capitilize on this sweet price.
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Mount Milligan.
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Mt. Milligan looks to be easily worth 1 Billion alone in a few years. This is about what the ENTIRE TC market capitalization is. Basically it's like buying a used car AND then getting a house for free. This is how much of a value TC is at this price. I just started my position in TC with real money today at $6.91
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Way oversold at this price, once the new mines are in full swing, this stock will soar.
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future growth, cheap after earnings beat-down
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-Mt. Milligan, huge potential for over two decades down the road.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/02/29/heres-why-this-stock-is-a-core-holding-in-my-portf.aspx
-Dropped $1 on "missed expectations" last quarter.
-$2 in cash per share and cash on hand matches total debt.
Classic risk/reward play here but with Mt. Milligan i believe it is definitely worth a shot for at least a year or two down the road to see how things begin to play out.
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Today's drop is a buying opportunity from their latest earnings report (revenues down 25% looks bad until you delve deeper). Get in now before they bring on additional mining production through this calendar year, significantly boosting revenues.
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As construction and manufacturing pick up, molybdenum will be in increasing demand, and Thompson Creek knows how to deliver it. Mt. Mulligan is just gravy on top, with its supplies of precious metals. I wouldn't be surprised if it went down in the near term, but I'm looking to double the price in four years.
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Current Parameters
CAPS Rating 1
4 - 5 on 2011-12-30
Price-to-Earnings (TTM)
0.01 - 15.00
Price-to-Book (TTM)
0.01 - 1.00
% Below 12 Month High
25.00 - 100.00
CAPS Rating
5 - 5 on 2012-02-23
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It is time for TC to emerge. I think this stock is now ready to show serious growth.
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This has been a disappointment for me so far. I see nothing but potential money yet I haven't seen any gains in the year I've held onto this so far.
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Thompson Creek is being punished for trying to change from being a one trick pony, namely molybdenum, to a major producer of molybdenum, copper, and gold. They bought Terrane and their huge copper & gold discovery in Mt Milligan and are now realizing how much it costs to bring it to production. Add to that the cost of expanding their big moly mine and they have cash flow problems. These issues have killed TC this year. But they bring an opportunity in the next couple of years. This is a well managed company who has chosen to diversify from the massive swings molybdenum prices have had over the past few years. Within 2 years they will be producing at Mt Milligan. If they can raise the cash needed to complete Mt Milligan - probably by selling another part of the gold stream - they will reap the benefits in the next few years and in a big way. I like their management, I believe they will do it.
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