Taubman Centers, Inc. (NYSE:TCO)
The Company is a managing general partner of the Operating Partnership which is engaged in the ownership, management, leasing, acquisition, development, and expansion of regional shopping centers.
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Negative Book value and even counting a commercial value rebound , debt is still half of its market cap.
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TCO has an illiquid balance sheet with even a negative stockholders' equity. It also distributes an unsustainable dividend. Its stock price may be more than halved.
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The stock price has gotten ahead of fundamentals for Taubman Centers.
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This hit my limit order today, which I thought I set at a fairly high value. The sell off today may cause investors to think twice about playing the market and reconsider the value of asset preservation. In other words, invest in higher quality stocks and dump the speculative bets.
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This is a part of 4 part pure downthumb play on REIT here on CAPs (entered 3/16/2010):
in order from most overvalued to least: AEC, TCO, HME, ALX
The first two (AEC &TCO) appear to be sure-deal underperforms IMO.
The stock charts on each of these have done fairly well during the past 5 years, 3years, and past 1 year. Additionally they have done much better than their other REIT counterparts. The market has bet each of these have some fundamental (location, property type, income levels, debt structure, etc) significantly better than the rest of the pack. Now this may be true, but not at these valuations pal.
I'll reference snippets of profile (from Reuters website) of each that are valid reminders for me:
AEC:
multifamily real estate. The properties the Company owns are concentrated in Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Florida, Indiana, Virginia and Maryland. As of December 31, 2009, approximately 32%, 24%, 14%, 10%, 7%, 7% and 6% of the units in properties it owns were located in Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Florida, Indiana, Virginia and Maryland, respectively.
TCO:
Regional/Super-regional shopping centers. The centers are located in metropolitan areas, including Atlantic City, Charlotte, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, Orlando, Phoenix, San Francisco, Tampa and Washington, District of Columbia.
HME:
East coast. Has been conservative and has desirable type rentable communities (not luxury spots so relatively inexpensive to rent).
Owns, operates, acquires, develops and rehabilitates apartment communities. The Company's properties are regionally focused, primarily in selected Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast Florida markets along the East Coast of the United States.
ALX:
The Company is managed by, and its properties are leased and developed by Vornado Realty Trust (Vornado). As of December 31, 2009, the Company had seven properties in the greater New York City metropolitan area. It consisted of the 731 Lexington Avenue property, the Kings Plaza Regional Shopping Center, the Rego Park I shopping center, the Rego Park II property, the Paramus property and the Flushing property.
The 731 Lexington Avenue property, a 1,307,000 square foot multi-use building, comprises the entire square block bounded by Lexington Avenue, East 59th Street, Third Avenue and East 58th Street in Manhattan. The Kings Plaza Regional Shopping Center contains 1,351,000 square feet and is located on Flatbush Avenue in Brooklyn. The Rego Park I shopping center contains 351,000 square feet and is located on Queens Boulevard and 63rd Road in Queens, New York. The Rego Park II property, a 600,000 square foot shopping center is located adjacent to the Rego Park I property in Queens, New York.
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I am LOVING REIT's right now!
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Unusually high call volume at $50 for 5/10
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Retail will start a stronger rebound through 2010. Good properties. Decent dividend.
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Downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS, price target $24.
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Commercial Real Estate :(
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Re-short
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Although it looks like it's at the worst market environment rite now, it's going to outperform its peers, other REITS, and keep going up due to the fact that it's very well managed. Also it builds commercial buildings like shopping malls, which aren't really effected by the tumbling home real estate market. At its current price and dividend payout, although relatively high P/E ratio, it is still a very solid investment. In fact, it already outperformed S&P 500 by more than 100% in the past 5 yrs!
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indebted financials screen
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