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Recs
Phnord
(71.57)
Submitted: 3/10/2013 10:11:13 AM :
Start Price:
$38.80
TFM Score:
+27.58
Organic and Health food will continue to sell Well. This stock is near the bottom of its 52 week range, P/E is much lower than market avg.
Recs
latinoeconomist
(23.40)
Submitted: 2/6/2013 9:56:34 PM :
Start Price:
$48.30
TFM Score:
-1.70
This is like buying Whole Foods 15 years ago - a whole lotta growth ahead!
Recs
docbill3
(< 20)
Submitted: 12/13/2012 6:50:51 PM :
Start Price:
$49.33
TFM Score:
-10.78
I HAVE VISITED WHOLE FOODS AND I WAS IMPRESSED. i VISITED THE FRESH MARKET AND COULD NOT RESIST. MY BILL AT THE CASH REGISTER WAS ALMOST $500.
Recs
beefangusbeef
(74.58)
Submitted: 8/23/2012 10:55:07 AM :
Start Price:
$62.13
TFM Score:
+33.46
Bad valuation. Stores are not nearly as nice as Whole Foods, staffed with less knowledgeable individuals, generally smaller, and worse selection. All around if you're looking for organic/premium food stock look at Whole Foods. A much better buy.
Recs
XMFConnor
(97.81)
Submitted: 6/13/2012 8:11:08 PM :
Start Price:
$50.73
TFM Score:
+22.46
The company has no durable competitive advantage-- it's a grocer at ~40X earnings with increasing competition trying to expand out of its base. I think this is a compelling short
Recs
TMFTheDoctor
(90.24)
Submitted: 2/28/2012 4:28:31 PM :
Start Price:
$44.26
TFM Score:
+3.01
Fast growing, but only by virtue of rapid store expansion, both in number of stores and store size. Actual sales per square foot is lower than even underperformers like SUPERVALU. While one could make the argument that sales/sq. ft. is less relevant because TFM has such high margins, I would counter that Whole Foods (more of a competitor than a store like SUPERVALU) has double the sales with the same margin. But TFM is priced at least as richly as Whole Foods on a P/E basis, and on PEG basis it's far more expensive than Whole Foods. It'll be very difficult for TFM to live up to such lofty expectations.
Recs
sunnyspot
(79.31)
Submitted: 2/17/2012 2:44:23 PM :
Start Price:
$44.45
TFM Score:
-4.27
If these guys don't get swallowed up by Whole Foods, they could become a force of their own.
Recs
Nalakensho
(63.35)
Submitted: 12/10/2011 2:33:18 PM :
Start Price:
$39.72
TFM Score:
-4.46
High end market. Consumers are demanding fresh, whole foods. Expensive, but high quality foods. North Carolina company that I have watched grow fro a little store in Greensboro to a chaining the Carolina's. It will perform well on the larger stage.
Recs
snapper99man
(72.35)
Submitted: 9/9/2011 5:33:08 PM :
Start Price:
$36.78
TFM Score:
-3.07
Gimme some more organic stuff!!! Piggy back on the Whole foods revolution!!
Recs
TheRadical
(< 20)
Submitted: 6/8/2011 10:41:22 AM :
Start Price:
$33.15
TFM Score:
+28.71
TFM has been beaten up a lot over the last couple months. This is a strong company that is definitely worth more than its selling for.
It will probably be a more slowly developing company, just because of their business. However, people will realize its true intrinsic value soon enough to make an investment.
Recs
sandmanjg
(< 20)
Submitted: 4/4/2011 8:53:01 PM :
Start Price:
$34.82
TFM Score:
+23.81
WFMI competitor
Recs
Spraggs
(57.34)
Submitted: 3/29/2011 9:08:58 PM :
Start Price:
$37.66
TFM Score:
+13.34
Beginning stage of a large roll-out plan with disciplined execution.
Recs
FoolishFinds
(20.98)
Submitted: 3/24/2011 2:39:06 PM :
Start Price:
$38.24
TFM Score:
+9.65
TFM has a great strategy as far as what products they offer. Whole Foods stock has been doing very well over recent history so hopefully the competition can gain some steam to help this market grow
Recs
707oxford
(< 20)
Submitted: 2/21/2011 11:49:39 PM :
Start Price:
$46.29
TFM Score:
-11.89
Caligiuri Pick
This stock will outperform because it is an under-appreciated business with a solid business model in an emerging industry (organic foods).
Recs
bridomuga
(88.63)
Submitted: 1/24/2011 12:13:13 PM :
Start Price:
$37.52
TFM Score:
+10.48
Quality stores and good food. Should continue to pick up business as economy improves.
Recs
smith972
(86.10)
Submitted: 1/14/2011 1:56:04 PM :
Start Price:
$40.81
TFM Score:
-0.58
Has anyone shop there? Would love to here from you.
Recs
gtechie
(39.07)
Submitted: 12/22/2010 5:36:16 PM :
Start Price:
$43.65
TFM Score:
-12.49
TFM versus WFMI... love them both!
Recs
owenlhjphillips
(< 20)
Submitted: 11/30/2010 5:56:26 PM :
Start Price:
$36.83
TFM Score:
+3.63
Bored, rich, housewives love the fresh market. Growth
Recs
TMFBreakerForce
(77.40)
Submitted: 11/12/2010 2:22:48 PM :
Start Price:
$32.69
TFM Score:
+21.26
I’ve been doing some research on a very recent IPO - The Fresh Market (TFM), and here are my notes so far. I plan to pick up some shares on Monday (Thanks to the new MF trading rules! woo hoo! hehehe)
The Fresh Market TFM
Recent Price: $32.85
Market Cap: $1.57 Billion
Founded by Ray and Beverly Berry in 1982 in Greensboro, N.C., The Fresh Market is specialty retailer that offers high quality food products, with a special emphasis on fresh, premium perishables.
The company IPO’d on 11/5/10, selling 13,175,000 shares at $22. They now have 47,991,045 shrs o/s post IPO.
TFM operates 100 stores in 20 states – covering the Southeast, Midwest, and Atlantic Region.
Their biggest market is Florida with 24 stores, followed by North Carolina with 15, and Georgia with 10.
The company has grown from 53 stores in 2005, to 92 at the end of 2009. TFM opened 10 new stores this year. Management believes the market can support at least 500 locations, meaning there is plenty of growth opportunities ahead.
Interestingly, the company stores are only 21,000 square feet and carry between 9,000-10,000 SKU’s. The average conventional supermarket is 40,000-60,000 sq feet with around 45,000 SKU’s. In the prospectus the company states that the smaller box concept allows them to focus on higher margin products.
Revenues have climbed from $728mln in 2007 to $862mln in 2009. Revenues throught 9 months (9/26/10) are $684.8mln with Q4 to follow.
Cash Flows have outpaced Net Income as well:
2007 2008 2009 Thru 9/26/10
Net Income: $30.29mln $31.56mln $49.2mln $41.05mln
CFFO: $49.02mln $60.38mln $84.7mln $78.5mln
In Feb of 2007, the company entered into a Bank Credit Facility – a 5 year $175mln revolver. Currently they have borrowed $98.2 mln.
The cash balance is low at $6.28mln, but their cash flows appear strong.
Competitors:
Conventional: Kroger, Safeway
Regional: Publix, Harris Teeter
National Big Box: Wal Mart, Target
Alternatives: WFMI, Trader Joe’s
Plus all your local supermarkets, farmers mkts, etc
Ray Berry, the founder was the company CEO from 1981-2007. He is now chairman, B.O.D.. Previously he had worked for Southland Corporation (the previous 7-11 parent co) and was a SVP who oversaw 4,000 7-11 locations.
Insiders seem to have 60% of the outstanding shares.
Seasonality – 4th quarter is their strongest, due to holiday shopping.
Link to company filings:
http://ir.thefreshmarket.com/sec.cfm
Thoughts? :) Let me know while everything is still fresh (ahem hehehe), in my mind...
Matt
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